There’s a lazy narrative making the rounds in NFL discussions this week about how these playoffs will be an indictment of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen if the Bills somehow don’t get to the Super Bowl.
It’s an idea built on the notion that, with elite AFC quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and – best of all – Patrick Mahomes all out of the playoffs, there’s no reason Allen shouldn’t be able to lead his team to the promised land.
Over the past five playoff seasons, Bills have one loss to Cincinnati and four to Kansas City, plus a near-miss with Baltimore in a divisional playoff game last January that came down to the wire.
The Bills’ quarterback undoubtedly has an advantage in playoff experience over every other AFC quarterback in this year’s field, which should count for something. And when it comes to players capable of elevating a team to beyond where it would otherwise go, Allen has no peer.
So, in terms of players capable of influencing the outcome of the game, he’s No. 1.
But hanging the outcome of football games solely on quarterbacks is foolish, yet it often becomes part of the flawed rhetoric at this time of year.
There are reasons for that.
Today’s NFL is more quarterback-centred than ever before. Quarterbacks annually make up a high percentage of the top 20 picks in any draft, and with that comes expectation and a spotlight.
Most starting quarterbacks are marketed as the face of their franchise. And the cameras love to find them on television broadcasts to catch their expressions of elation and heartbreak.
But before we get to Allen and the Bills specifically, here are a few examples of why tagging quarterbacks with wins and losses is so flawed.
Check out this stat line:
Attempts: 48
Completions: 28
Yards: 505
Touchdowns: 3
That’s the stat line for the losing quarterback in Super Bowl LII, a 41-33 win by the Philadelphia Eagles over New England. Tom Brady set the record, which stands to this day, for most passing yards in a Super Bowl in that defeat.
The Patriots problem that day was quite obviously on defence, where Brady had zero impact.
A couple more examples featuring Brady drive this home.
When the Baltimore Ravens defeated New England, 28-13, in the AFC Championship Game in January of 2013, Joe Flacco was saluted for “beating Brady.” In fact, the Ravens defence pitched a shutout during the second half of that game, a remarkable achievement over which Flacco had zero control.
And we all remember New England’s win over Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX, a victory that improved Brady’s record as a Super Bowl-starting quarterback to 4-2, after which it was often remarked how Brady being 3-3 in the NFL’s biggest game would have tarnished his legacy.
But Brady had no influence on the play that decided the game: the goal-line pass attempt where Russell Wilson threw a game-ending interception to the Patriots’ Malcom Butler, preserving a 28-24 victory for New England.
So Brady’s Super Bowl legacy was saved by a play he watched from the sideline? It doesn’t make sense.
Now, back to the Bills and Allen.
It’s fair to say that with an average quarterback, the Bills would be perhaps a slightly better- than-average NFL team. Their flaws are many, starting with the players to whom Allen throws.
The Bills finished with two players – and just one receiver – who surpassed the 500-yard mark on the season. Beyond that, either due to a lack of availability or talent, the Bills’ targets were absolutely pedestrian this season.
The run game with James Cook and the offensive line is elite. But if the Bills find themselves in any kind of desperate situation late in Sunday’s game, the outcome will ride on Allen and the passing game, as it so often does.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills rounded into a decent pass defence this season despite some moving parts among their back seven.
But stopping the run was another story. Philosophically, Buffalo rarely prioritizes stopping the run. The thinking is that a team with Allen at quarterback can hope a high-scoring offence will reduce the effectiveness of the opposing run game as an element of complimentary football.
But the Bills were particularly susceptible to big, gashing runs this season, and surrendering 5.1 yards per carry ranked them third last. Their 24 rushing touchdowns surrendered tied them for most allowed in the NFL.
This all to say that Josh Allen will have no control over a whole lot about Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. His teammates have to get open, the guys up front have to block, and the defence has to try to slow down a Jacksonville team that’s averaged more than 33 points a game during an eight-game winning streak.
And then there is special teams. The Jaguars have a kicker in Cam Little who set two NFL distance records this season, while the Bills are trying to decide between an injured 41-year-old Matt Prater and Matthew Wright, a guy who’s been cut three times this season and was just signed to their practice squad off the street.
Think that might come into play in a close game?
No matter what Allen does on Sunday, his performance belongs in the context of his overall playoff career, which, thus far, is historically great.
In 13 playoff games, Allen has completed 65.7 per cent of his passes for 3,359 yards, 25 touchdown passes with four interceptions. He’s also rushed for 668 yards and seven touchdowns.
It might be the greatest playoff stat line of any NFL quarterback, ever.
Additionally, he also holds the all-time playoff marks for total touchdowns per game, offensive yardage per game, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and interception percentage.
So, any notion that Allen has failed to perform at playoff time? Please.
Go ahead and judge Allen this weekend based on the standard he’s set for himself and the expectations that come with that. Just don’t make the Bills’ fate on Sunday some kind of a referendum on one of the best NFL quarterbacks to ever play the game.
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