Alex Bregman leaves Red Sox for Cubs — Five thoughts on Boston’s offer, what’s next & more | Sean McAdam
The Red Sox lost a key piece of their nucleus Saturday night when the news broke that the Cubs had poached Alex Bregman for the price of a five-year, $175 million contract. Here are five thoughts on the deal:
1) The Red Sox, according to an industry source, made a reasonably competitive offer for Bregman, though it fell short, monetarily, compared to the Cubs’ winning bid of five years and $175 million. Boston was willing to offer a five-year guarantee, as MassLive reported late Saturday, at a high average annual value. The final offer had the Red Sox at $165 million in guaranteed money with significant deferrals, a deal worth $2 million less in average annual value than what Chicago gave Bregman.
Obviously, the Cubs offering more money on an annual basis was a huge factor. In the end, too, multiple other factors made Chicago’s offer more attractive.
But Boston’s unwillingness to include a full no-trade clause like the Cubs did proved to be a sticking point as well. So did, according to sources, how the Red Sox planned to schedule out payments of the significant amount of deferred money in their offer.
Bregman has two young children and finding a permanent baseball home was hugely important to him as he didn’t want his family life further disrupted now that he’ll be playing this season in his third different city of the last three years. The Red Sox wouldn’t bend on their refusal to grant a full no-trade clause, citing organizational policy.
Further, while a good chunk of the Cubs’ bid (reportedly $70 million) was also deferred, the Red Sox’ offer involved payments stretching out decades, further subtracting from the actual value of the deal.
As if the Red Sox’ own aversion to competing for 30-something free agents isn’t barrier enough going forward, the refusal to grant no-trades and insistence on deferrals that far outstrip those of other teams puts them at an additional competitive disadvantage when it comes to landing star players.
2) It’s entirely accurate to say the Red Sox don’t have some remaining trade options. It is accurate to say that they don’t have some good trade options.
Sure, they could trade for (deep breath) Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Alec Bohm, Isaac Paredes or a handful of others capable of filling the vacancies at second or third base.
Some could buy the Red Sox time and allow for further development for the likes of Marcelo Mayer. But none is a needle mover that will enhance the Sox’ chances at winning a championship.
But most of those names aren’t impact players and will require further depletion of the team’s prospect base — something chief baseball officer Craig Breslow readily acknowledged at Fenway Fest Saturday.
The Sox had expected that their final big move of the winter would be a free agent signing. Unless they surprise everyone and outbid teams for Bo Bichette, that now won’t happen. Or, at the very least, the free agent signing won’t be of nearly the same magnitude.
3) On Saturday, Breslow said, given where things stood, he expected the Red Sox to go into the season with all four of the team’s regular outfielders — Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.
Bregman’s departure, however, may change that plan.
Breslow could be reluctant to thin out the prospect inventory any more, having already shipped out a handful of young players to acquire Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo and Willson Contreras.
He has the luxury of having one more established outfielder than he needs, and could conceivably include either Duran or Rafaela in a deal for an infield bat.
Another option: rather than try to beef up the lineup, he could use one of the aforementioned outfielders to land another top starting pitcher, choosing run prevention as a means of roster enhancement.
4) Beyond the hits the Red Sox are set to take defensively at third base and the removal of a productive righthanded bat from an overwhelmingly lefthanded lineup, there’s also the leadership void that Bregman leaves in his wake.
The Red Sox had already lost an important clubhouse voice when Rob Refsnyder signed with Seattle last month. But as useful as Refsnyder was, he was a role player, serving as the fifth outfielder. Bregman’s contributions off the field nearly matched his usefulness on the playing field.
All you had to do was listen to one young player after another Saturday sing Bregman’s praises at Fenway Fest. Roman Anthony, for one, spoke how about Bregman was viewed as a player-coach thanks to his input, instruction and counsel. Others echoed similar sentiments.
That won’t easily be replaced.
5) Bregman now joins a not-so-exclusive club of Players Who Stayed with the Red Sox For Just One Season.
Important disclaimer: This club does not include rentals — that is, players whom the Red Sox acquired at the deadline or in-season, but didn’t re-sign. Recent examples: Kyle Schwarber
It’s a crowded group, and includes the likes of Orlando Cepeda, Nick Esasky, Adrian Beltre, Justin Turner, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler O’Neill.
Of those, Beltre obviously had the best career after leaving the Red Sox, enjoying a long successful run with the Texas Rangers that ultimately led to his induction into Cooperstown.
For some of these, the Red Sox made the right call in not extending themselves. O’Neill, for instance, had durability issues and missed exactly two-thirds of last season with the Orioles.
Time will tell whether they made the right move not retaining Bregman.
