Nigeria are through to the AFCON semi-finals. Are they now favourites to win it?

Nigeria’s players looked broken last November when they failed to qualify for this summer’s World Cup. Despite all of the talent at their disposal, they lost a penalty shoot-out to the Democratic Republic of Congo in a World Cup play-off final and failed to qualify for successive editions of FIFA’s showpiece event.
But, less than two months later, they have reached the semi-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
Eric Chelle’s side made a difficult task look easy on Saturday evening as they beat Algeria 2-0. The fixture was held in Marrakech but it looked, sounded and felt like being in the middle of Algiers because the majority of the 32,452 fans inside the Stade de Marrakech were supporting Algeria. They screamed and whistled every time Nigeria were in possession but it made no impact.
Morocco’s Brahim Diaz is the undisputed star of AFCON 2025, but Nigeria might be the strongest team in the tournament. They possess Victor Osimhen, one of the world’s most clinical strikers who scored the opening goal against Algeria, and two of the most underrated players in the Premier League in Calvin Bassey and Alex Iwobi.
Bassey is playing exceptionally well at centre-back, while Iwobi is producing the best performances of his career. Iwobi’s pass with the outside of his right foot in the build-up to Akor Adams’ goal against Algeria, which made it 2-0, was sublime and it could be strongly argued he is the team’s key player.
By the way, did we mention Ademola Lookman, who has directly contributed to seven goals in five appearances?
Nigeria always produces great players but they have a strange ability to self-sabotage. Osimhen’s row with Lookman during their victory over Mozambique earlier this week threatened to disrupt the team’s harmony. On Thursday, the country’s minister of state finance, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, said the squad and backroom staff were due to be paid bonuses from the group stages of the competition after delays caused by “foreign-exchange processing”. They have been the only signs of drama and both appear to have been resolved.
Osimhen, who wore the captain’s armband in the second half after Wilfried Ndidi limped off with an injury, and Lookman jumped into each other’s arms after Adams dribbled past Luca Zidane to score. It is a shame Ndidi will miss the semi-final against Morocco on Wednesday, even if he recovers from injury, after picking up his second booking of the tournament.
Victor Osimhen celebrates scoring against Algeria with Ademola Lookman (Sebastien Bozon/AFP via Getty Images)
Chelle, who took charge of Nigeria 12 months ago, deserves credit for navigating some difficult situations and helping individuals to improve. Losing Benjamin Fredrick and Ola Aina to injury after former captain William Troost-Ekong retired could have been disastrous for the defence, but Bruno Onyemaechi and Bright Osayi-Samuel have impressed as full-backs.
Of the four head coaches in the semi-finals, Chelle has been in his role for the shortest amount of time but it is clear to see how Nigeria have developed under him.
Being based in Fes, a small city seven hours away from Marrakech by train, for the first few weeks of the tournament also had a positive impact because there were no distractions. But Nigeria face a huge test on Wednesday when they play the host nation Morocco in front of over 50,000 fans at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in the capital Rabat.
“If you watch the games during World Cup qualifying, you will see this is the same team and the same game project but now they have improved,” Chelle told reporters after the victory over Algeria. “They understand more because we have a lot of training sessions and a lot of games.
“When we played against Zimbabwe in my first game, we played a 4-4-2 diamond. Maybe I changed my system for two or three games but now the team has improved everything because they know what I want and what the staff want.”
This is not unfamiliar territory for Nigeria. Of this year’s semi-finalists, they are the only ones who reached the last four at the last AFCON in 2023, but this time things feel different.
Nigeria were not thrilling to watch in the Ivory Coast two years ago. Under then head coach Jose Peseiro, they finished second in the group stage after scoring only three times, including a penalty from Troost-Ekong and an own goal. Though Peseiro had made them defensively solid, it meant they had no idea how to react when Sebastien Haller scored a late winner for Ivory Coast in the 2023 final.
Nigeria last won AFCON in 2013 (Paul Ellis/ AFP via Getty Images)
That experience of playing hosts Ivory Coast in the final at the Alassane Ouattara Stadium in 2023 will be crucial when they take on Morocco. In an interview with The Athletic in October, Troost-Ekong admitted the “hostile” environment affected them and “maybe we got carried away playing the occasion instead of the game.” Seven of the starting XI from that defeat will likely start against Morocco.
Nigeria have scored 14 times in five games in this tournament, nearly double the number they managed two years ago (eight). The players have learned their lesson after lapses in concentration nearly cost them in their 3-2 group-stage win over Tunisia by not conceding a single goal in the knockout stages.
Algeria’s behaviour at the final whistle suggested they thought the referee made mistakes, but they did not register their first shot until the 80th minute.
After beating Mozambique 4-0 to book their place in the quarter-finals, Lookman said the “disappointment” of missing out on the World Cup “is not going to go anywhere.”
But lifting the AFCON trophy for the first time since 2013 would make that pain more bearable. The main obstacle standing in their way is Morocco, who are determined to break a 50-year wait to win the competition. It should be a thrilling contest.




