How do you predict the winner of a golf simulator league match? It seems a bit arbitrary to pick one small collection of PGA Tour stars versus another competing inside the most innovative indoor golf setting any sports fan has ever seen, but that’s the aim here.
The TGL began Season 2 on Dec. 28. The first match featured a rematch of the Season 1 finals: Atlanta Drive Golf Club versus the New York Golf Club. Atlanta Drive defeated New York 6-4 in a very close match. The following Friday, Boston Common Golf came out on top of their match against the Los Angeles Golf Club 7-5. Last week, Atlanta Drive improved to 2-0 with a 7-4 win against The Bay Golf Club. Tuesday’s TGL match brings together the New York Golf Club and the Jupiter Links Golf Club for the fourth match of Season 2. New York GC is favored (-145) by our partners at BetMGM.
New York GC has the honor and will play first in Triples. Rickie Fowler will lead off in the NYGC three-man rotation, followed by Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young. The fourth team member of NYGC, Xander Schauffele, will sit this match out. Jupiter Links GC counters with a unique lineup of their own: Newly signed Akshay Bhatia will go first, followed by Max Homa and Kevin Kisner. Bhatia signed a one-match contract since Tom Kim (Sony Open) and Tiger Woods (injury) were unable to play. Due to the players’ varying schedules both on and off the course, substitutes have become an integral part of TGL’s ongoing success.
After nine holes of alternate-shot, the players compete individually in Singles for six more holes. TGL matches consist of 15 holes and last a little under two hours. Each head-to-head matchup plays two holes. On Tuesday, Fowler will go against Bhatia on holes 10 and 13. In the Blackburn Bowl, Fitzpatrick faces Homa on holes 11 and 14 (award-winning coach Mark Blackburn teaches both players). Young and Kisner are the last head-to-head pairing, and they will play holes 12 and 15.
Using match play rules, the team with the lowest score wins one point. If the two teams tie, no points are awarded.
With the lineup cards set and the imaginary course chosen, how does one pick the winner? Separating these two teams by strokes gained stats doesn’t seem like a strong enough qualifier. After all, TGL is not PGA Tour golf. Having followed the TGL for two seasons and been inside the SoFi Center for more than 80 percent of their matches, I can tell you there is a proven way to predict the winner. You may even win some cash on a couple of live prop bets with this breakdown as well.
Winning TGL matches comes down to a couple of key skills. The first is experience. When the scorecard came out for Match 4, it was obvious that NYGC would have an advantage. New York played nine of the same holes in Match 1 against Atlanta Drive two weeks ago. Hole repetition is key when it comes to gaining an edge over your opponent. Jupiter Links GC, on the other hand, is making its Season 2 debut on Tuesday night. New York defeated Jupiter Links 10-3 in Season 1. Of the 15 holes these two teams played that night, eight are included in Tuesday night’s rematch. With that much proven success across this scorecard, NYGC gets a bump in the experience column.
Teams competing in the TGL can double the number of points won on any given hole by using the hammer option. The decision to use that hammer, or double down, has proven to be very strategic. No team employed the hammer option more in Season 1 than Jupiter Links. And no team lost more hammers than Tiger’s team. Conversely, New York has shown a strategic ability to gain an advantage. The team that controls the hammer game will win the match. NYGC has a much better record using the automatic press option.
My final preview key has to do with formats. NYGC is an excellent ball-striking team. They made it to the SoFi Cup Finals in Season 1 due to their driving and putting. NYGC was second in the league in greens in regulation percentage and Triples points won. In its Season 1 match, NY was up 8-2 after the first nine holes! Watch those prop boards and take Fowler and company to go up early. Truth be told, Young over Kisner doesn’t look too bad either in the Singles matchups!
I’m taking the favorites in Match 4. The New York Golf Club will win over the Jupiter Links Golf Club. I would jump on their BetMGM odds soon, because I suspect the line is sure to move more in NYGC’s favor.
Match 4 between the New York Golf Club and Jupiter Links Golf Club takes place Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional who has built golf’s No. 1 betting community, Read The Line. In the last four seasons, Keith has predicted over 40 outright winners across the PGA Tour and the LPGA.
