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Written by Aditya Raghunath at The Motley Fool Canada
Valued at a market cap of over $70 billion, Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) is among the largest companies in Canada. CSU stock went public in mid-2006 and has since returned close to 20,000% to shareholders. If we adjust for dividends, cumulative returns are closer to 25,000%. It means a $1,000 investment in the Canadian tech stock soon after it went public would be worth almost $250,000 today.
While Constellation Software stock has crushed broader market returns over the past two decades, it is down 36% from all-time highs. Investors are worried about the company’s slowing organic growth and sluggish enterprise spending, which has dragged valuations lower in 2025.
Let’s see if you should buy the dip in CSU stock right now.
Constellation Software delivered solid third-quarter results that demonstrate the company’s consistent execution of its vertical-market software acquisition strategy. However, investors should understand the unique risks associated with this serial acquirer business model.
In Q3 of 2025, the Toronto-based software conglomerate reported revenue of US$2.95 billion, up 16% year over year. In the first nine months, CSU increased sales by 15% to US$8.45 billion. However, organic sales rose by 5% in Q3 and just 3% year to date, indicating that acquisitions remain the primary growth driver.
Its net income stood at US$210 million, or US$9.89 per share, compared to US$164 million, or US$7.74 per share, in the year-ago period. In the first nine months, it reported net income of US$402 million, or US$18.96 per share, down from US$446 million, or US$21.04 per share, last year, highlighting earnings volatility tied to an acquisition-heavy model.
CSU increased operating cash flow by 33% to US$685 million in Q3 and by 28% to US$1.94 billion year to date. Moreover, free cash flow rose 46% to US$529 million in Q3 and 27% to US$1.26 billion for the nine-month period.
A rising free cash flow allows CSU to strengthen the balance sheet and reinvest in growth projects and acquisitions, which will drive future top-line higher.
CSU ended Q3 with US$2.77 billion in cash and a debt balance of US$5 billion. While its cash rose by US$790 million, debt increased by US$847 million.
CSU continues to deploy substantial capital for acquisitions. In the last three quarters, it spent US$955 million spending on acquisitions while investing US$463 million in Asseco equity securities.
The investment risks center on execution uncertainty. Constellation’s strategy depends on identifying, acquiring, and successfully integrating dozens of small vertical market software companies annually.
Any slowdown in quality acquisition targets or integration missteps could significantly impact growth. The company’s 31% ownership stake in publicly traded Topicus adds complexity and potential volatility.
Rising debt levels to fund acquisitions create financial risk if economic conditions deteriorate or acquisition opportunities dry up. With minimal organic growth, the entire business model relies on perpetual deal-making in an increasingly competitive acquisition landscape.
Analysts tracking CSU stock forecast adjusted earnings per share from US$79 in 2024 to almost US$190 in 2030. If CSU stock is priced at 20 times trailing earnings, which is very reasonable, it could double from current levels over the next five years.
Analysts tracking the TSX tech stock forecast it to gain 46% from current levels, given consensus price targets.
The post Where Will Constellation Software Stock Be in 5 Years? appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.
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Fool contributor Aditya Raghunath has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Topicus.com. The Motley Fool recommends Constellation Software. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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