The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at Utah State on Wednesday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (12-4, 4-1 MW) at Utah State (14-1, 5-0)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. Pacific
Where: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum (10,270 capacity)
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Utah State by 13.5; total of 150.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Handle the pressure: Utah State’s press defense dismantled Nevada last season in Logan as the Wolf Pack struggled to get the ball across half-court at times in a 90-69 loss. Nevada had 18 turnovers that led to 25 Aggies points, and that can’t be replicated with this trip to the Beehive State. The Wolf Pack ranks eighth in the nation in offensive turnover rate, so it rarely gives the ball away. But it hasn’t faced a press defense like the one Utah State employs. The Aggies are ninth in the nation in defensive turnover rate, creating 15.6 takeaways per game. Nevada has more ballhandling this year than last year, although backup point guard Tyler Rolison was limited to one minute in Saturday’s game against Wyoming due to a back injury and is questionable. If the Wolf Pack turns the ball over 15 times, it will be cooked.
2. Improved defensive focus: Nevada has developed into a strong offensive team that has averaged 121 points per 100 possessions in its last nine games (anything north of 115 is elite). The Wolf Pack has done that thanks to limited turnovers, a high free throw rate and good 3-point shooting, which is the holy trinity of offensive metrics. Where Nevada has seen struggles is defense, especially in the last two games. The Wolf Pack has defended the 3-point shot well but has been vulnerable to fouls and offensive rebounds, doesn’t create many turnovers and has had trouble defending the paint. Part of that is related to not having starting center Joel Armotrading (chest), who will miss his 10th straight game. Utah State ranks 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency and has scored at least 93 points in four of its five MW games. Nevada needs to be near perfect on defense, with the Aggies having no offensive weaknesses.
3. No major runs: The Wolf Pack is 3-1 on the road but has played in front of small crowds – 1,741 at Santa Clara, 2,548 at Washington State, 5,326 at Colorado State and 4,027 at Fresno State. There will be almost that many fans combined for this game at Utah State, which boasts the MW’s top homecourt environment (sorry, SDSU and New Mexico). Utah State is 49-5 at home the last four seasons and can mount game-winning runs at a moment’s notice. In last year’s game in Logan, Utah State went on three separate 8-0 runs in the first half against Nevada before adding a 9-0 run in the second half. The Wofl Pack can’t allow Utah State to get its sold-out crowd involved. Those big runs are usually triggered by turnovers (Nevada hasn’t had an issue there) or an inability to string together defensive stops (that has been a problem at times). The quieter the Wolf Pack can keep the Spectrum, the better the odds of a Nevada upset.
Prediction
Utah State 82, Nevada 72: The Wolf Pack will play its final game at Utah State with both schools members of the MW in what has been a fun rivalry that spans shared time in the Big West and WAC, too. Since Nevada joined Utah State in the Big West in 1992, the Wolf Pack is 24-34 against the Aggies, including a 7-21 record in Logan. The Spectrum is a tough place to play, and Utah State has been awesome so far this season, winning its five MW games by an average of 26 points. That includes a 42-point home win over Colorado State and 25-point road win at Boise State. This does mark Utah State’s first MW game against a top-six team in the league standings, but it will take a huge performance for Nevada to win this one. Season record: 10-6
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
