Transactions seldom happen in a vacuum.
The Red Sox’ signing of free agent lefty Ranger Suarez came only a few days after the team had lost out on retaining free agent third baseman Alex Bregman.
With few free agent options still available, the Red Sox quickly pivoted and began exploring the starting pitching market, under the theory that if you can’t out-slug teams, perhaps you can beat them with better run prevention.
Wednesday’s deal for Ranger Suárez is the result, further deepening the team’s starting rotation.
But there’s a domino-like effect here, too. The addition of Suarez gives the Red Sox five healthy, established starters: Garrett Crochet, Suárez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello and Johan Oviedo.
That doesn’t include two veterans returning from injury (Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval), nor three highly-regarded young pitchers, all of them lefthanded — Kyle Harrison, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.
That gives the Sox a total of 10 starters with some major league experience, and even allowing for the expectation that there will be injury and performance issues along the way, that’s more than most teams require to get through a 162-game season.
Moreover, there is the long-term picture to consider. Crochet is signed through 2031 while Suarez is under control through 2030. Bello’s extension, signed in March of 2024, takes him through the 2029 season with a club option for 2030.
Both Gray and Oviedo are shorter term commitments. Gray will be a free agent after this season, though a mutual option exists for 2027. Oviedo, meanwhile, is under control for two more seasons through the end of 2027.
Given the commitments to Crochet, Suárez and Bello, the Sox currently have the foundation of a strong staff for the near future. For the time being, as promising as both Tolle and Early are — the former was recently ranked as the second-best lefthanded pitching prospect in the game by Baseball America — there’s currently no obvious space in the rotation for them.
And seeing that they are still lacking a run-producing bat, that could translate into including Tolle or Early as part of a deal to address that need.
The Red Sox are now positioned to put together a package to land an impact bat. They could bundle any one of their outfielders not named Roman Anthony together with either Tolle or Early and expect a significant return.
A week or two ago, that would have led the Sox to acquire Ketel Marte, who would certainly have upgraded their lineup in a major way while also improving the infield defense at second base.
But that was before Arizona president of baseball operations Mike Hazen announced that Marte would be staying put.
The Diamondbacks have long coveted Jarren Duran and are known to have interest in both Tolle and Early. Would a proposal that included both the outfielder and one of the young starters convince them to put Marte back in play?
Marte would check multiple boxes — not only is he a proven run producer, but he’s also a plus defender at his position. If the Red Sox are going to stress run prevention, they need to also address the team’s infield defense, which has been porous the last few years.
It’s believed that the Cubs, as a consequence of signing Bregman, will now entertain offers for second baseman Nico Hoerner. Hoerner is perhaps the game’s best defensive second baseman, but sports a career slugging percentage of just .384. Another caveat: he’s under control for only this upcoming season.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said Saturday at Fenway Fest that he would prefer not to make another trade, given the prospects the Sox have moved in the deals to land Gray, Oviedo and Willson Contreras.
“We’ve had to move really good players,” said Breslow, “and the depth that we’ve acquired over the last couple of years is something we don’t want to take for granted. So I think if there’s an opportunity to continue to invest in this team via free agency, that’s a path that we would probably prefer.”
But that came hours before Bregman chose the Cubs over the Red Sox and may have also changed the Red Sox’ thinking.
It’s rare for major trades to be made in mid-January, when teams often have both their rosters and payroll set or nearly set. Still, trades occasionally take place during spring training, so a transaction now would hardly be without precedent.
The trick for the Red Sox will to be find that impact bat.
But at the very least, after the addition of Suarez, the Red Sox are in a position to put together a formidable offer as part of their winter-long search for offensive upgrades.
