Call Rodney Dangerfield, because the Broncos don’t get no respect. Denver claimed the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record. They have home-field advantage this weekend as well as the advantage of a bye week and an extra week of rest. And yet, some books are slightly favoring 13-5 Buffalo on the road. The line seems to vary from Bills -1.5 to Broncos -1.5 depending on where you are looking. (Note: As of Wednesday afternoon, it looks like everyone has settled on Broncos -1.5 for now.)
What do our DVOA ratings say? The Broncos come out slightly ahead of the Bills on both full-season and weighted DVOA. Add in home field and the week off, and I feel strongly that the Broncos a stronger favorite in this game. However, the Bills still have a good chance to win on the road. There are some interesting matchup stats here from the FTN StatsHub, and there’s always the chance of Josh Allen just taking over and willing the Bills into the next round.
BUF (13-5)
DEN (13-4)
DVOA
12.5% (8)
14.4% (7)
WEI DVOA
14.0% (9)
18.5% (6)
Bills on Offense
BUF OFF
DEN DEF
DVOA
15.0% (4)
-10.4% (5)
WEI DVOA
14.1% (5)
-10.9% (7)
PASS
25.3% (10)
-5.6% (8)
RUSH
13.4% (2)
-17.9% (3)
Broncos on Offense
BUF DEF
DEN OFF
DVOA
3.2% (20)
3.6% (15)
WEI DVOA
2.0% (19)
6.2% (12)
PASS
0.2% (12)
18.5% (14)
RUSH
6.3% (31)
-5.4% (19)
Special Teams
BUF
DEN
DVOA
0.7% (15)
0.4% (16)
Let’s start off with the Bills on offense, where we have strength against strength. However, the Bills have not been playing as well in recent weeks. There isn’t as much of a difference between total and weighted DVOA, but that’s because the Bills had excellent offensive games in Weeks 8 (at Panthers) and 9 (vs. Chiefs).
If we look at Weeks 1-9 compared to Weeks 10-19, you can see the drops in DVOA. The Bills’ pass offense declined from sixth to 13th since Week 10. (If you take out the horrible Miami game from Week 10, it is ninth since Week 11.) The Bills’ run offense declined from first to fourth since Week 10 (third since Week 11). It’s been a larger decline than the ranks make it sound, because the gap between first and fourth is a lot bigger than, say, the gap between fourth and seventh. The Broncos’ run defense has also declined, from third in Weeks 1-9 to 15th in Weeks 10-18, and that decline is about the same as the decline for the Bills’ run offense.
The Broncos’ pass defense, however, has definitely not declined.
Strength against strength is true of the matchup in the trenches as well. The Broncos ranked third in ESPN pass rush win rate while the Bills ranked fourth in pass block win rate.
The Broncos do have some weaknesses on defense. For example, the Broncos are only 25th against “other wide receivers” — not the top two — and the Bills spread the ball around a lot. Of course, we don’t know who those “other receivers” are because so many of the Bills receivers are injured. The Bills are down to three healthy receivers (Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Brandin Cooks) and will be pulling guys like Kristian Wilkerson and Mecole Hardman Jr. off the practice squad. There’s going to be a lot of 12 personnel with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, and the Broncos were only 18th in DVOA against tight ends this year. (Kincaid has been limited in practice but will likely play.)
The Bills are more successful as they move into heavier offensive packages with a fullback or two tight ends, but the Broncos also have better defensive DVOA against heavier offensive packages.
Also, I’m not sure why this is, but the Broncos were 28th against passes to the right side. It’s not related to a specific cornerback, as Pat Surtain travels with the opposing WR1 more than almost any other cornerback. (I have no idea who that is in this game. Cooks?) The Broncos were fifth against passes to the left and third against passes to the middle. And Josh Allen was better passing to the right side than the left this season.
These are the top two defenses against running backs as receivers.
One place where the Broncos have a significant advantage is in their use of man coverage. Only the Eagles used man coverage more often than the Broncos, and the Bills’ receivers really struggled to get open against man. Josh Allen had 23.6% DVOA (sixth) against zone but -8.6% DVOA (25th) against man, although the Broncos will need to watch for Allen scrambles against man coverage.
Another place where the Broncos may neutralize a Bills strength is on the ground. The Bills are better running when they use zone blocking. They averaged 5.3 yards per carry from outside zone, and only two offenses used outside zone more often. However, the Broncos allowed only 3.4 yards per carry against outside zone, fourth in the NFL.
But the Broncos were not a great tackling team on runs, allowing a 22.8% avoided tackle rate which was third worst in the NFL.
The Bills led the NFL with 12.4% DVOA running against a stacked box, but were still higher (15.5%) without a stacked box. The Broncos were near the bottom of the league in how often they stacked the box but were much better against runs when they did (-26.7% DVOA, second in the NFL behind Seattle).
With the Bills on defense, you’ve got a couple of issues. The coverage for the Bills is stronger than you might think, but they need to blitz to get pressure and of course have a terrible run defense.
The Bills are 27th in ESPN pass rush win rate and will be facing one of the top offensive lines in the league (eighth in pass block win rate). FTN Data charting has the Bills as a very surprising fifth in pressure rate (33.8%) but that’s partly because they blitz 30.8% of the time (10th). Bo Nix was very good against the blitz this season, seventh in the league with 22.4% DVOA.
The Bills defense is average in man/zone split but only the Vikings were more likely to use two high safeties. That is a very good matchup for the Bills. Bo Nix was 22nd (-6.8% DVOA) against 2-high compared to 13th (9.5% DVOA) vs 1-high. And Bills pass defense had -23.1% DVOA (second behind only Houston) with 2-high compared to 33.2% DVOA (29th) with 1-high.
The problem there, of course, is that going with two high safeties invites teams to run on you. The Bills’ poor run defense was worst against man blocking (5.7 yards per carry) or outside zone (5.1 yards per carry). Those happen to be the two concepts the Broncos use most: 27.4% of their runs are man blocking and 21.3% are outside zone.
Broncos may want to go with heavier personnel more, as the Bills are -8.1% DVOA (10th) vs. 11 personnel but 19.6% DVOA (32nd) vs. 12 personnel and 23.4% DVOA (30th) vs. 21 personnel.
It’s good to get Bo Nix off his first read, and that happens a lot. Nix was near the bottom of the league, throwing to his first read just 41.8% of the time. He had -24.6% DVOA when forced off his first read, which was fifth in the league but still worse than his DVOA on the first read. (As you might imagine, Josh Allen is also very good in this stat.)
However, you need to watch for Nix scrambling, as the Bills defense allowed a league-worst 9.4 yards per scramble.
On special teams, the Bills have a significant advantage on kick returns with Ray Davis while the Broncos have an advantage on punt returns with Marvin Mims Jr. Otherwise, the special teams units are close to average once we adjust for weather and the altitude in Denver.
