Flying high on China’s favours, Pakistan seems to be slowly expanding its military footprint across the Arab world, a move that threatens to alter the balance of power in both South and West Asia, particularly for India. While Islamabad is nearing multi-billion dollar arms deals with Saudi Arabia and Sudan, a Pakistani minister said the South Asian nation has also worked up a draft defence agreement with Ankara and Riyadh for a NATO-like Islamic alliance.
Islamic NATO
Raza Hayat Harraj, Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production, told Reuters that the potential deal between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey was separate from a bilateral Saudi-Pakistani accord announced last year. A final consensus between the three states is needed to complete the deal, he said.
“The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Turkey trilateral agreement is something that is already in the pipeline,” Harraj said in an interview.
“The draft agreement is already available with us. The draft agreement is already with Saudi Arabia. The draft agreement is already available with Turkey. And all three countries are deliberating. And this agreement has been there for the last 10 months.”
Defence Deals
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Pakistan is in the final phases of striking a $1.5-billion deal to supply weapons and jets to Sudan, promising a major boost for the Sudanese army, battling the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Islamabad is also reportedly in talks with Riyadh to convert about $2 billion of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, deepening military cooperation months after the two nations signed a mutual defence pact last year.
By the standards of mega defence deals, the $1.5 billion Sudanese pact and the $2 billion Saudi pact aren’t huge. But the agreements under negotiation demonstrate the growing footprint of Pakistani military hardware and its clout in the Arab world.
According to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), apart from Saudi Arabia, Iraq too has shown interest in the JF-17 Thunder jets – jointly produced by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. The production of these jets is split between the two countries, with 58 per cent carried out in Pakistan and 42 per cent in China. Pakistan produces the airframe, while China supplies the avionics, according to a report by Al Jazeera.
Pakistan’s Changing Role
This isn’t the first time Pakistan has sold weapons and planes to countries in Asia and Africa, but in the Middle East, Islamabad’s military role has traditionally, for the most part, involved training forces of Arab allies. But if the ongoing negotiations come through, it could turn Pakistan into a key security provider in some cases and give it the ability to tip the balance in delicate conflicts in other instances.
Finding Balance
With Pakistan’s expanding military clientele, analysts warned that Islamabad will need to tread carefully and juggle competing interests in a divided Arab world or risk burning bridges with important partners.
In Sudan, its jets and weapons will go to the armed forces, which has the support of Saudi Arabia. Sudan has, meanwhile, accused the United Arab Emirates of financing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – a charge Abu Dhabi has repeatedly rejected.
In Libya, Pakistan has reportedly struck a $4bn deal with Khalifa Haftar, the rebel leader whose militia controls a major chunk of the country’s north. Sudan’s army – which Pakistan is reportedly about to arm – has previously accused Haftar of helping the RSF.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also on opposing ends in Yemen, with Riyadh accusing Abu Dhabi of arming southern separatists. The UAE has also denied those allegations.
“Against that backdrop, it will not be easy for Pakistan to sell the same weapons systems to opposing sides,” Umer Karim, an associate fellow at the Riyadh-based King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies, told Al Jazeera.
The China Factor
Pakistani platforms, and the JF-17 in particular– manufactured jointly with China — offer extra geopolitical heft to Sudan’s army and Libyan rebels, Sultan, the former Pakistan Armed Forces officer, told Al Jazeera
“These countries may buy fewer numbers [than bigger countries] as per their requirement, but Pakistan may be seen as the most reliable source to acquire aircraft due to strong support from China,” he said.
It’s also worth noting that Islamabad’s discussions with potential weapons buyers are unfolding against a backdrop of intensifying competition between the United States and China, as many countries reassess defence procurement strategies in an increasingly polarised world.
The US remains the world’s largest arms exporter, accounting for 43 per cent of global sales in 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. China ranks fourth, with about a 6 per cent share – nearly two-thirds of which goes to Pakistan.
