NFL divisional round projected scores: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game

Josh Allen and the Bills are 1-point underdogs at Denver according to Austin Mock’s model. Mike Carlson / Getty Images

The playoffs march on with the divisional round. This weekend, there are three home teams favored. The Rams are the only road favorite. Is that justified? Let’s see what my projection model says.

I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes play-by-play data to map out potential game outcomes for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense.

From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season. Below, you’ll find those projections compared against the odds on BetMGM.

My model is very similar to the betting lines this weekend with all four spreads within half a point and all four point totals within a point.