The Toronto Raptors are eight games above .500 sitting fourth in the East at the halfway mark.
To anybody reading this article – I challenge you to find a reporter or analyst out there who publicly predicted this milestone ahead of Opening Night.
If you find one, they are on one small island.
For all the inconsistency this young roster has displayed, the Raptors are undeniably ahead of preseason expectations.
Their win total sat at 34.5 in the summer, opened the season at 39.5, and has now steamed up to 45.5 on FanDuel.
You can argue that they had good injury luck early, but the ship has sailed on that crutch with RJ Barrett now at 19 games missed and Jakob Poeltl at 21 (half the season).
Their defence has really stood out this season, currently ranked fourth.
From a betting perspective, you’ve been able to exploit that via game totals.
The Raps have gone under 26 out of 42 games, the second-highest rate in the NBA.
They allow the third-fewest transition points and have the seventh-lowest turnover rate.
Scottie Barnes has emerged as a darkhorse choice for Defensive Player of the Year going from 300-to-1 to 33-to-1 on FanDuel.
The bench came into the season as a major strength and has followed through.
Three of the four best net ratings on the Raps are owned by bench players; Barnes is the only starter on the list.
A top-6 seed seemed like a stretch in October but now Toronto sits -550 to make the playoffs.
The vibes should be higher, but the discourse online will lean negative more often than not.
Championships aren’t built overnight; this has been a solid building block season for this era of Raptors basketball.
Best ROS betting trends
Pivoting from generalities, I want to go through some betting spots worth highlighting when targeting Raps players.
The sample size is large enough to derive correlation from certain matchups or deficiencies in their opponents.
Here are some opportunities I pay attention to when betting on Toronto:
Scottie assists without Poeltl
Over these past 12 games that Poeltl’s been sidelined, Barnes has gone up to 6.5 assist per game compared to 5.1 in the ones prior.
The Raptors have experienced a sizeable uptick in fast break efficiency in these 12 games versus the previous 12 with Poeltl.
They went from 106.9 points per 100 in transition to 116.6.
This is the identity of Toronto’s offence; they rank first in fast break points.
It’s how they win games.
Having one of Collin Murray-Boyles or Sandro Mamukelashvili at the centre spot gives them more speed.
Barnes is always one to get the ball up the floor off live rebounds and has four double-digit passing games without Poeltl as a result.
His potential assist data also tells the same story.
He’s at 12.4 potentials this past stretch without Poeltl compared to 8.8 for the season.
Up against a weak transition defence like the Clippers, there’s value on his assists.
Worth sprinkling on a ladder as well.
Barrett points against poor rim protection
Barrett’s shot chart is straight out of an analytics playbook.
He’s taken 339 field-goal attempts on the season; only nine have come in the mid-range.
Sharing the court with Brandon Ingram and Barnes, Barrett has done an excellent job adjusting his game to make Toronto’s offence flow better.
To his credit, no perimeter player on the team is more effective at getting to the rim than him.
Of Barrett’s 23 games played, 11 have come against opponents ranked in the bottom-10 of points in the paint allowed.
He has averaged 20.4 points in those contests.
In the other games, he sits at 18.9.
Anytime I see an opponent weak at rim protection and also in the bottom-10 for transition defence, I see flashing lights for Barrett points.
Best bets against the Clippers
Murray-Boyles over 10.5 rebounds + assists (+106)
I’ve talked about Poeltl plenty above.
He’s set to miss his 13th straight game with this back injury.
His absence has opened the door for CMB to flourish who’s started at centre the last seven games.
He’s covered this line in five of the last seven.
He’s covered all three with Barrett out.
What’s really driving the rookie’s success is his offensive rebounding.
At 4.7 a night, he ranks third in the NBA since Poeltl went down.
He’s racked up double-digit rebounds in half of the games without Poeltl.
I’m also suggesting this bet because I think his passing deserves more credit.
Whether it’s off of live rebounds or dishes to him at the rim, he’s been very effective at making the right play getting easy looks for his teammates in the paint.
The Clippers have been the best team in the league since the NBA Cup Finals, but they have struggled on the glass all year.
They rank third-last in defensive rebounding and that’s with Ivica Zubac active.
As a bonus, Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out at the time of writing, so more defensive rebounds should be up for grabs.
