Wrexham in the Premier League: Could a fourth straight promotion really be possible? – The Athletic

Wrexham, fresh from three historic promotions in as many years, are on a roll once again. Four straight wins — or, two defeats in 16 league outings, if you prefer — means the club owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac sits just one point outside the Championship play-offs.

Beat Norwich City at home on Saturday and Wrexham could be enjoying their highest league standing since the heady days of the late 1970s when they briefly occupied second place in the old Division Two.

Factor in how Phil Parkinson’s side are also unbeaten this season against the current top six, four of whom they’ve already faced away from home, and it’s no wonder there’s a familiar sense of excitement building around north Wales right now.

Knocking Premier League Nottingham Forest out of the FA Cup has only added to the feelgood factor to leave many wondering if a fourth consecutive promotion might just be on the cards.

(Jon Hobley/Getty Images)

Such a feat would certainly be unprecedented. No team in the history of English football has ever risen from the fourth tier to the top flight in successive seasons, never mind navigated their way out of the National League first as well.

In that context, even reaching the play-offs in May would be a Herculean effort for a team who, just three years ago this weekend, were heading to Maidstone United for a league fixture.

To go from edging a five-goal thriller at the modest Gallagher Stadium courtesy of a stoppage-time winner from Aaron Hayden, to dreaming of possible league visits to Anfield and the Emirates Stadium is quite the leap.

Only two clubs have previously gone from non-League to the top table of English football since the advent of four divisions in the 1950s. And both Wimbledon in the late 1970s and 80s and Luton Town more recently took nine years to complete that epic journey.

Not that we should necessarily be surprised Wrexham are in with a shout of completing the same trip in less than half the time.

This is, after all, a club whose unprecedented charge through the leagues began with arguably the most hard-fought title race in National League history, as Notts County bagged a phenomenal 107 points only to be pipped to the title with a match to spare by Parkinson’s relentless side.

Then came consecutive runners-up spots in the fourth and third tiers to take Wrexham to a level they had last played in 1982.

Surely now this red and white footballing juggernaut would have to slow, even allowing for the club’s record-breaking £33million ($44m) summer outlay on transfers?

Not a chance. After understandably taking time to find their feet in a division where all 23 of their peers boast a top-flight pedigree, there’s a swagger about Wrexham right now.

Wrexham celebrate winning promotion to the Championship in April 2025 (Robbie Jay Barratt/Getty Images)

Premier League side Nottingham Forest found this out the hard way in the FA Cup. Had Sam Smith taken a one-on-one chance in first-half stoppage time that, by rights, he’d probably convert nine times out of ten, there would surely have been no way back for the visitors at 3-0 down.

As it was, Callum Hudson-Odoi earned the Premier League side a dramatic reprieve via a quite brilliant 90th-minute equaliser, only for Parkinson’s side to prevail anyway on penalties.

Wrexham are not quite in uncharted territory. The club’s highest league position may be a modest 15th in the old Second Division, achieved in the 1978-79 season. But there was a brief time the following autumn when the top flight seemed a possibility.

A 2-0 win at Fulham on October 6, 1979, nudged the Welsh club up two places to second, level on points with leaders Newcastle United after 10 games. It proved, however, to be the high-water mark, with results falling away to such an extent they finished 16th.

Until the arrival of Reynolds and McElhenney (now Mac) on the scene, that seemed to be that in terms of any aspirations of reaching the top. More than a decade in non-League, following on from some bruising encounters with previous owners, can flatten the ambition of any club and fanbase.

Now, though, Wrexham dare to dream again with the Premier League very much on the radar following those back-to-back-to-back promotions. The big question, with 60 points still up for grabs, is: can Wrexham achieve this footballing Holy Grail as early as next season?

Six points separate Parkinson’s men from Middlesbrough in second place. Coventry, the division’s standout team with 52 points and 57 goals from 26 games despite a recent wobble in form, sit a further six points ahead at the summit, while Ipswich Town are two points behind Boro with a game in hand.

It’s hard to see beyond this trio in terms of automatic promotion with Ipswich, boasting five wins from their last seven games, looking best equipped to chase Coventry towards the line.

Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds following Wrexham’s promotion to the Championship (Kya Banasko/Getty Images)

As for the play-offs, up to a dozen sides could be in the mix with recent history suggesting somewhere between 70 and 74 points — the average tally for the team finishing sixth over the past decade stands at 73.5, while seventh had a mean 70.5 across the same period — will be required to bag a top-six finish.

Wrexham currently have 40 points from 26 games but it’s their form since mid-September that offers real hope. Twenty-one outings have yielded 36 points at roughly 1.7 points per game.

Repeat that across the run-in and Parkinson’s side will finish on 74, enough to clinch a play-offs place in all but one (2016-17, when Fulham finished sixth on 80 points) of the past 10 campaigns.

Further encouragement comes via the make-up of Wrexham’s schedule, with just two of their remaining clashes against the current top eight being on the road at Coventry and Bristol City. That means Boro, Ipswich, Millwall, Hull City and Stoke City all have to visit the SToK Cae Ras, where the hosts are unbeaten in 10 league fixtures.

Factor in how four points have already been taken off fourth-placed Preston North End during seven unbeaten meetings with the top six this season and there’s certainly nothing to fear for a squad whose strength in depth has really come to the fore in recent weeks.

This ability to chop and change without unduly weakening the team — Smith seamlessly replacing top scorer Kieffer Moore over Christmas as midfielder George Thomason deputed admirably at left wing-back — could become even more important if further progress is made in the Cup.

Victory over Forest means a new date is already being sought for the trip to Bristol City, which was originally scheduled for fourth-round weekend. Should Ipswich also be knocked out next month, then March’s Watford game will have to similarly be rearranged, while reaching the quarter-finals would mean shifting not one but two more fixtures due to it falling over the Easter weekend.

This begs the question as to whether Wrexham might actually be better served bowing out in the fourth round, even if defeat at home to Ipswich on February 14 wouldn’t exactly be ideal preparation for the following weekend when the two teams meet again in the league. Either way, Parkinson has plenty of options.

Ipswich Town are among the teams battling for promotion this season (David Watts/Getty Images)

What isn’t in doubt is the Championship’s ability to throw up a surprise or two. This adds an element of difficulty when it comes to predicting how things will go. Witness yours truly back in August tipping Louie Barry to be an “inspired” signing after joining Sheffield United on loan in The Athletic’s season preview.

Opta’s supercomputer faces similar problems, even when running 10,000 simulations of how the campaign will unfold using all manner of variables, including the quality of a team’s performances, fixtures, historical results and even Opta’s own power rankings.

Heading into the weekend, the latest crunching of those numbers gave Wrexham a predicted average of 68.99 points and an eighth-place finish. It also has Coventry going up as champions, followed by Ipswich as runners-up and then Middlesbrough rated as having the best chance of triumphing in the play-offs.

Fair enough. But, when it comes to Parkinson’s Wrexham, the supercomputer does seem to have something of a blind spot. Before a ball had been kicked in anger during the 2024-25 League One season, the Welsh club was being tipped to finish 20th.

Even as things changed and it became clear Wrexham were sticking around in the top three, Wycombe Wanderers were continually backed to finish as runners-up almost right up until the actual moment in late April when Parkinson’s side clinched automatic promotion with a game spare.

It was a similar story in August, a season of struggle and a 21st-place finish being the supercomputer’s Championship verdict on Wrexham.

Perhaps, therefore, supporters shouldn’t be unduly disheartened by its updated prediction. Especially as the relative lack of parachute payments in this season’s Championship — just four, compared to six in 2024-25 — means the division is more wide open than usual, a big plus for those not in receipt of solidarity payments from the Premier League.

Whether Wrexham or one of the other unfancied teams from pre-season can capitalise remains to be seen.

But, supporters can certainly be encouraged by what they are seeing on the pitch. Which, after four straight wins and a big Cup triumph, is a familiar moving through the gears from a well-drilled team who know a thing or two about winning promotion.

An intriguing few months lie ahead, more than likely capped in north Wales by the securing of a play-offs place. Then, it’s over to the footballing gods to decide whether there really will be a Hollywood ending to the season or not.