Sunday’s divisional-round playoff game between the Patriots and Texans is evidence that change is constant in the NFL.
Consider this: There is only one common starter between the Patriots’ projected starting defense this week and the unit that was trotted out in Week 6 of the 2024 season, the last time they played the Texans in a 41-21 loss.
The Texans scored five touchdowns in that game. None of those touchdown-scorers will play Sunday against the Patriots. One, Stefon Diggs, will be playing on the Patriots.
And no one would have guessed, watching that game last season — QB Drake Maye’s first career start — that the Patriots would be hosting the Texans in a playoff game just 15 months later.
But here we are.
Here are 10 things we’re watching in Sunday’s game:
• It all starts with the Texans’ defense, specifically their pass defense. The Texans have the league’s best defense this season, based on EPA (expected points added) per play and EPA per pass. They’re 8th in EPA per rush. The Patriots have, clearly, not faced a better defense all year. Conversely, the Texans haven’t faced an offense like the Patriots since Week 1, when they faced the Rams. This is strength on strength. The Patriots rank second in EPA per play and first in EPA per pass. They’re 11th in EPA per rush. It’s almost amazing how well the two teams match up when the Patriots’ offense faces the Texans’ defense.
• So, who wins out? Maye has been phenomenal all season, but he needs his offensive line, which has been fine but not spectacular this season, to hold up against perhaps the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The game could ultimately be determined by how well left tackle Will Campbell and right tackle Morgan Moses hold up.
• Maye can’t fumble twice and throw an interception against the Texans, like he did last week, and hope to win. Fortunately for the Patriots, Maye has not been an error-repeater this season. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said he’s “very” confident that Maye won’t have the same ball security issues this week.
“We’ve talked about this all year the balance of we love that he ran for 66 yards and handled the ball in those situations, and converted on third and short and all the rest of it. I’ve tried really hard not to talk out of both sides of my mouth where I’m saying, ‘Hey, don’t do this, but do that.’ Or clap when it goes good and be upset when it doesn’t. So he knows the priority,” McDaniels said. “He knows the importance of taking care of the football and ending every drive with some form of a kick would be ideal for us this week. And he understands that, so I trust him implicitly to do the right thing for our football team. I know he’s prepared. I know he’s preparing his butt off right now, and he’ll be ready to go.”
• The Patriots have just 18 turnovers this entire season and 12 since Week 3, when they had five turnovers against the Steelers. Running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson also have to continue to hold onto the ball. The Patriots will likely try to establish the run early. Stevenson, especially, has been fantastic over his last five games, averaging 10 yards per touch in that span of time.
• Diggs continues to be a team player despite catching just five passes for 59 yards over his last two games. He faces his former team on Sunday. If the Texans double him, that would only free up more targets for Maye, who’s been perfectly content feeding the open receiver all season. But if the Texans treat everyone equally, it would not be surprising if Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry remain the favorite targets of Maye.
• If the Patriots’ offense and Texans’ defense even out, then this matchup comes down to the Texans’ offense vs. the Patriots’ defense. So, how do they stack up? The Texans’ offense ranks 18th in EPA per play, 14th in EPA per pass and 26th in EPA per rush. The Patriots’ defense ranks 8th in EPA per play, 9th in EPA per pass and 10th in EPA per rush. That alone leans towards the Patriots having an advantage.
• The Patriots’ defense played one of its’ best game of the season in the wild-card round of the playoffs, limiting the Chargers to just 207 yards of total offense and 3.5 yards per play. The Texans, meanwhile, are coming off an overall inefficient passing game against the Steelers with quarterback C.J. Stroud fumbling five times, losing two and throwing an interception. You can’t quite count on the Patriots’ defense to replicate last week’s performance, but they do seem set up well to be playing their best football in January.
• Defensive tackle Milton Williams and linebacker Robert Spillane returned from injury in Week 18 and in the wild-card round, respectively. Defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga now is returning from a foot injury this week against the Chargers. The Patriots’ defense is healthy and jelling. Can they register six sacks and a turnover? If so, they’re winning this game. The Patriots could potentially be playing without outside linebacker Harold Landry, who’s questionable with a knee injury. If he can’t suit up, then Anfernee Jennings and rookie Elijah Ponder would fill in opposite starter K’Lavon Chaisson.
• The Patriots are getting a significant boost this week with Christian Gonzalez already ready to go after entering concussion protocol in Sunday’s win over the Texans. Gonzalez progressed quickly and was a full participant in practice by Thursday. Meanwhile, Texans wide receiver Nico Collins will not play due to the concussion he suffered Monday night against the Steelers. That’s another massive lift for the Patriots. Gonzalez likely would have covered Collins. Now, the Patriots’ best cornerback will be on the field defending against a Texans offense without its best pass-catcher.
• Game prediction: A low-scoring affair that the Patriots sqeak out 20-17. Maye will have to protect the ball. The defense will have to swarm and cause negative plays and turnovers. And the offensive line has to make sure that Anderson and Hunter don’t overtake the game. It won’t be easy, but the Patriots are home favorites for a reason.
