Keagan Smith details his top TreVeyon Henderson player props for Patriots vs. Texans in Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round game.
Sunday brings us more NFL Playoffs action at 3 p.m. EST. as the Houston Texans travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. The home team will need every bit of firepower on offense it can get to win this contest, especially while facing one of the league’s elite defensive units. Will TreVeyon Henderson get enough work to make an impact in the Divisional Round?
New England is a three-point home favorite with the game total set at a low 40.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are the best TreVeyon Henderson prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Patriots vs. Texans on Sunday’s edition of the NFL Divisional Round.
Best TreVeyon Henderson prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
A breakout star of the Patriots’ regular season, TreVeyon Henderson burst onto the scene around midseason and finally began to show signs of the franchise halfback who was promised. He tallied 100+ rushing yards in three games, totaling 911 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground on just 180 carries. His overall production was quite impressive given how little work he saw during the first half of the campaign, but his efficiency and big-play ability are what made him into a household name (beyond the pedigree he earned at Ohio State in college). Henderson’s 5.06 YPC ranked sixth-best among all halfbacks to rush at least 100 times this season, showing how he could make an impact even with his touches somewhat limited. He also caught 35 of his 42 targets for 221 yards and an additional touchdown, bringing his totals from scrimmage to 1,132 yards and 10 scores.
The Texans present a difficult matchup for any halfback. This defense is one of the league’s hardest-hitting units and has playmakers both up front and in the secondary who love to put their pads on ball carriers. Houston allows just 92.0 rushing yards per game (fourth-fewest) and falls ninth in defensive EPA/carry while giving up just 13 rushing touchdowns on the season (T-fifth fewest). Generally speaking, this is a very good run defense. The one concern is runs between the tackles, but Henderson’s game is more of an outside runner to allow him to hit the edge and get free.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Henderson’s prop bet lines are set at O/U 9.5 rush attempts, 36.5 rushing yards and a longest rush of 11.5 yards. His receiving lines sit at O/U 1.5 receptions and 5.5 yards. Finally, his +200 odds to score an anytime touchdown are the fifth-shortest of any player in this game.
Trying to project Henderson’s level of involvement these days proves challenging at times, especially after the last couple of weeks. While the second-round pick handled a 46% snap share and 43% touch share in the backfield during the regular season, teammate Rhamondre Stevenson played 59% of snaps with a 30% touch share. The latter has proved particularly effective as of late, tallying 100+ scrimmage yards in three consecutive games and five total touchdowns over that same span. In the same sample, Henderson has eclipsed 53 scrimmage yards just once. During last week’s Wild Card Game, Stevenson out-touched Henderson 13-10 as well.
There’s a chance the Patriots decide to lean on Stevenson more in this game given his recent form of play, especially with a hot-hand approach in the backfield. Producing against a stellar defense won’t be easy, but thankfully, Henderson’s lines are rather low in this contest. Despite the challenge, over 36.5 rushing yards and a longest rush over 11.5 yards both make sense in this spot. The rookie is such an explosive runner that he doesn’t need a heavy workload to rack up yardage — he’s exceeded this yardage prop in nine games this season, all of which have come over his last 11 games, and beaten this longest rush line in nine out of 18 total appearances.
He may not get a large dose of carries against a strong front seven, but so long as he doesn’t get iced out of the game plan entirely, Henderson should exceed 36.5 yards on the ground today.
Best Bet: TreVeyon Henderson over 36.5 rushing yards (-111)
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