2026 Australian Open: Arnaldi [65th] vs. Rublev [14th] Prediction, Odds and Match Preview

On Sunday, Matteo Arnaldi (No. 65 in the world) takes on Andrey Rublev (No. 15) in the Round of 128 at the Australian Open.

Rublev is favored (-400) in this match against the underdog Arnaldi (+280).

If you’re interested in tuning in for this match, and the rest of the Australian Open, ESPN+268 is the spot to go.

Tennis odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Sunday at 6:36 PM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Andrey Rublev matchup info

• Tournament: Australian Open
• Round: Round of 128
• Date: Sunday, January 18
• TV Channel: ESPN+268
• Live Stream: Fubo
• Court Surface: Hard

Watch Australian Open and more tennis on Fubo!

Arnaldi vs. Rublev Prediction

Based on the implied probility from the moneyline, Arnaldi has an 80.0% to win.

Arnaldi vs. Rublev Betting Odds

• Arnaldi’s odds to win match: +280
• Rublev’s odds to win match: -400

Arnaldi vs. Rublev matchup performance & stats

• Arnaldi is 15-16 on hard courts over the past 12 months.
• Arnaldi has won 22.6% of his return games on hard courts over the past year, and 77.1% of his service games.
• On hard courts over the past 12 months, Arnaldi has converted 65 of 204 break points (31.9%).
• Arnaldi was defeated by Jacob Fearnley (5-7, 2-6) on October 25 in the Qualification Round 1 of his previous tournament, the Rolex Paris Masters.
• Rublev, who has a 24-16 record in 17 tournaments on hard courts over the past 12 months, has claimed one tournament victory on that surface.
• Rublev has 414 wins in 514 service games when playing on hard courts (80.5%), and 120 wins in 510 return games (23.5%).
• On hard courts Rublev is 12th in break point win percentage (36.3%) after going 99-for-273.
• Rublev was eliminated in the semifinal of his previous tournament (the BANK OF CHINA HONG KONG TENNIS OPEN) on January 10, when he went down 7-6, 5-7, 4-6 to Lorenzo Musetti.