Timeline on near-blizzard conditions, Winter Weather Advisory expanded into eastern Michigan
Winter Storm Forecast Update: Winter Storm: Latest on snow forecast, high winds, dangerous wind chills – mlive.com
There has been only one change to the winter weather warnings and advisories late on this Sunday. Let’s also look at the timeline of the strongest wind gusts, which could produce near-blizzard conditions over the western third of lower Michigan.
Here is the latest map on the winter storm warning and now the expanded winter weather advisory, stretching east into the highly populated areas of southeast Michigan.
Winter storm warning for the pink shaded counties of west lower Michigan and part of the Upper Peninsula. Winter weather advisory for the blue shaded counties. (As of 5 p.m. Sunday)Mark Torregrossa
The weather conditions are going to worsen from west to east tonight and tomorrow morning.
The winter weather advisory was expanded to cover Lansing, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland and the Thumb. The advisory is not for heavier snow, but the combination of one to two inches of snow, strong gusts to 40 mph and bitterly cold wind chills.
The winter storm warning area will have six to 10 inches of snow by 7 a.m. Tuesday, along with the strong gusts. Severe blowing and drifting will occur because the snow is a very dry, easy-to-blow snow.
This snow is lake-effect snow, meaning it is heavy west of U.S. 131 and gradually turns lighter going into eastern lower Michigan. There will still be enough strength to the snow to produce an inch or two over eastern lower Michigan.
There could also be the I-94 lake-effect snow band that tends to carry eastward to Jackson and Ann Arbor. If this occurs, a long stretch of I-94 into eastern Michigan will be snow covered and dangerous.
Here’s the total snow expected to Wednesday morning. Anywhere you see at least yellow is six or more inches, to as much as over one foot of snow.
Total snowfall forecast all the way through Wednesday morning.NOAA
The wind gusts become a factor for the west half of lower Michigan between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. Monday. The strong gusts will move into eastern lower Michigan late morning and early afternoon.
At 6 a.m. the wind gusts will be increasing over southwest lower Michigan, including Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.
Wind gust forecast at 6 a.m. Monday.NOAA
By 9 a.m., the Traverse City area could have gusts between 35 mph and 45 mph. The strongest winds in the Grand Traverse region will be on the Lake Michigan shore in Leelanau and Benzie Counties, and off of East Grand Traverse Bay.
Wind gust forecast at 9 a.m. Monday.NOAA
The peak gusts will move into the Saginaw, Flint, Thumb, Ann Arbor and Detroit areas by 1 p.m. Monday.
Wind gust forecast at 1 p.m. Monday.NOAA
Blizzard conditions are wind gusts over 35 mph and visibility down to one-quarter mile due to falling snow and/or blowing snow. These conditions have to continue for at least three hours, which will be the hard decision on whether to officially issue a blizzard warning.
It won’t really matter if it’s officially a blizzard. Driving conditions will be extremely dangerous all day Monday over western lower Michigan, and possibly somewhat dangerous over eastern lower Michigan by noon and through the afternoon.
Watch for updates at Mlive.com/weather, as the severe winter weather kicks in Wednesday morning.
