The NFL’s final four is set and the betting lines are not what many would have expected before the season — or even before the past weekend.
The New England Patriots opened as 4.5-point road favorites over the Denver Broncos for the AFC championship, while the Seattle Seahawks opened as 1.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC championship, according to DraftKings lines. After early betting, New England jumped out to -5.5 and Seattle to -2.5.
In lookahead hypothetical lines, the Broncos were 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots, but they saw their odds drop precipitously following the news that quarterback Bo Nix would miss the remainder of the postseason with a fractured right ankle. Bookmakers polled said that Nix is worth anywhere between five and seven points to the spread.
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“We’re looking forward to seeing how these two defensive-minded teams match up in the AFC championship and evaluating just how big of an impact Bo Nix had on this Broncos team throughout the year,” Caesars Sportsbooks head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN. “We’re also eager to see where the sharps ultimately land on this game.”
Early sharp action could have had an influence on making the Pats even bigger favorites. John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said he was “surprised to see how big of a favorite New England pushed out to [on Sunday].”
If the 5.5-line holds, New England would be the largest road favorite in a conference championship game since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, according to ESPN Research.
Denver’s future odds also took a massive hit because of Nix’s injury. Going into Saturday, the Broncos were +700 for the Super Bowl, per DraftKings, and immediately following their win over the Buffalo Bills, they were +370. They lengthened to +650 in the immediate aftermath of the Nix news, then to +950 by the end of Saturday, before finally settling at +1100. It would be the longest odds to win the Super Bowl entering a conference championship since the New York Giants (+1500) in January 2008; the Giants famously went on to win it all that year.
The Seahawks lead the way on the Super Bowl board heading into the conference championship games, with +145 odds, followed by the Rams at +225 and the Patriots at +255.
All of these teams began the season as relative long shots: Denver and Los Angeles were each +2200, while New England and Seattle were each +6000. Either of the former two teams winning would represent the longest preseason odds since the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+4000), and either of the latter two would mark the longest since the 2001 Patriots (+6000).
With many of the public’s Super Bowl favorites eliminated, there is little left for sportsbooks to sweat, but there are at least a couple of liabilities still on the board: BetMGM said that a Seahawks Super Bowl win would be its worst outcome, while DraftKings points to a Patriots win as its worst.
ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this report.
