Ben Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert prediction: Odds, picks, and predictions for Round 1 of Australian Open
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Ben Shelton’s 2026 Australian Open gets underway on Sunday night against Ugo Humbert.
Shelton was a semifinalist in Melbourne in 2025 and is coming off a massive season, but he’s a triple-digit long shot to win his first Grand Slam title thanks to a draw that placed him in the same quarter as Jannik Sinner.
Shelton’s first-round opponent, Humbert, is no slouch, either. Oddsmakers have installed Shelton as a -150 favorite to advance to Round 2.
Ben Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert odds, prediction
When Shelton burst onto the scene a couple of years ago, he was viewed as a one-trick player. That one trick — his serve — was an elite one, but the American had plenty of skeptics who questioned whether he’d be able to round out his game enough to become a power on the ATP Tour.
Those skeptics are much quieter these days, as Shelton has turned himself into an all-court player. He’s still dependent on his all-world serve to do most of the damage, but he’s got a lot more in his locker than just aces these days.
Ugo Humbert is ranked just outside the top 32, making him one of the top unseeded players in the tournament. AFP via Getty Images
Humbert, one of the best unseeded players in this field, can also dial it up with his serve and has the type of offensive game that should suit these conditions. The Frenchman started the season off with a great run at Auckland, and now will try to build off that momentum with his first deep run at a major.
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Humbert has never been beyond the fourth round in a slam, and there are questions whether the best-of-5 format is to his liking. The native of Metz is 21-28 all-time in majors, and lost in the first round in the last two Grand Slams in 2025.
Umbert is a dangerous opponent; he’s in good form out of the gate this season, but this stylistic matchup feels like a nightmare for the Frenchman.
These are two gifted offensive-minded players, but Shelton is better across the board. He’s worth a bet on the moneyline pre-match, and would be worth backing in-play should Humbert race ahead in the first set.
The Play: Ben Shelton moneyline (-150, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
