RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) – As of Tuesday morning, confidence remains high for snow this weekend.
We started giving you the FIRST ALERT back on Friday when we first saw the pattern was suggesting a potential winter storm for this upcoming weekend and nothing has changed in our thinking
What’s new as of Tuesday Morning:
Snow likely, with major storm possible
Updated timing: We might squeeze out a dry day on Saturday– computer model trends are trending a little slower, with snow possible Saturday afternoon and likely Saturday evening and night. The bulk of the storm looks to happen on Sunday with snow accumulating during the day.
The most recent run of the European model hints at a changeover to sleet possible as the storm ends late in the day Sunday.
Remember: it’s still early!
Setup:
We have a higher-than-normal confidence of weekend snow, in large part due to a strong area of high pressure likely to be in place to our North. An Arctic outbreak over the Northern plains midweek will funnel very cold air to the Mid Atlantic.
The limiting factor in our Virginia snow chances is often the cold air. But there are good signs that very cold air will be in control of our weather this weekend.
We have what is called a “Split Flow” pattern taking shape later this week into the weekend which is a pattern that we haven’t seen at all so far this winter. It is a pattern that historically has favored us with some more notable winter storms.
The Northern Branch of the jet stream should supply ample amounts of cold, arctic air to our region. The Southern Branch of the jet stream should provide ample amounts of moisture that overruns that cold, arctic air at the surface.
The interaction of these two branches will be critical in determining whether or not we get a big, fluffy snowstorm or snow that mixes with sleet at some point during the event.
The devil will be in the details and will become more clear as we get within 2-3 days. At this point in time, it looks like the atmosphere will be below freezing from top to bottom, so snow is the more likely precipitation type.
The Northern Branch of the jet stream should supply ample amounts of cold, arctic air to our region. The Southern Branch of the jet stream will provide ample amounts of moisture that overruns that cold, arctic air at the surface. This is a pattern WE HAVE NOT seen so far this winter, but is a pattern that tends to favor us with our more notable winter storms.(WWBT)
Timing:
Snow is expected as early as Saturday afternoon but the latest data suggests the snow may hold off until sometime Saturday evening. The bulk of the snow falls Saturday night into the day Sunday. Keep in mind we are still 4 to 5 days away and forecast changes are expected. We’ll keep you updated here!
Impact:
We’re not drawing snow maps just yet, but 6-12″ of snow is a good preliminary number to plan for. Computer models are consistently pointing to 1″ of liquid to work with with this storm.
With moderate to heavy snow likely this weekend, roads and sidewalks could be snow covered for several days early next week. IF the snow develops as expected, our highs and lows could stay below freezing through Wednesday, meaning snow covered roads could persist for days.
As of now, it looks cold enough for this to be a snow that doesn’t stick on trees and power lines. This would mean that the storm won’t cause widespread outages.
Summary:
Snow is likely Sunday with HIGH IMPACT possible. Start preparations now just in case.
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