You’ve got questions about the impending freeze, and we’ve got (a few) answers – Space City Weather

In brief: In this post we tackle some of the questions we’ve received from readers today, who are understandably concerned about the potential for a hard freeze and icy streets in Houston this weekend.

We are now about three days away from an Arctic front descending into Houston. We still don’t know the finer details about what to expect from this very cold airmass, but they should begin to come into better focus over the next couple of days as we get access to higher resolution forecast modeling. However, we realize that readers have a lot of questions, so we’re going to do our best to tackle some of them this afternoon.

Will Houston see freezing rain?

This is really the most important question, and it is one we cannot quite answer yet. I’m highly confident that we will see moderate to significant accumulations of freezing rain along and north of Highway 105, beginning as early as Friday night. I would not advise travel to Dallas or Austin any time after Friday afternoon, as conditions could deteriorate pretty quickly after that time. For areas well north of Houston I think sleet and possibly snow are options as well. It will be a mess on roads.

Likelihood of 0.01 inch of freezing rain in our region through Sunday night. (National Weather Service)

Closer to the city of Houston we are going to stay a little warmer, a little longer. At this time I don’t expect freezing temperatures to reach Harris County until Saturday morning at the earliest, and possibly not until Saturday evening. It will then be a race to see when air temperatures freeze at the surface, and when the precipitation slows or stops on Saturday. At this time I think there is a reasonable chance of freezing rain (and therefore icy streets) along and north of Interstate 10 on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. We also cannot rule out impacts further south. But where the precise line between cold rain and freezing rain falls, I just can’t say right now. Accordingly, the metro area should be prepared for icy roads this weekend, starting on Saturday in Houston. We’ll get better details on where and when in the coming days.

Should we be concerned about a hard freeze?

Yes, I think so. At this time both Sunday and Monday mornings have a chance of producing a hard freeze in Houston, with temperatures dropping below 25 degrees. Again the most likely location for this will be along and north of Interstate 10, but we can’t rule out anywhere except for the immediate coast. When temperatures drop this low we start to worry about pipes bursting. Please note that at this time we do not expect the extreme cold the region saw in February 2021, with widespread temperatures in the teens. But precautions should be taken with exposed pipes when temperatures drop into the 20s. Should you drip your faucets? We tackled this question in a post about a year ago.

Current forecast for low temperatures on Sunday morning. Please note this is subject to change. (Weather Bell)

Will the power go out?

We are not experts about electricity, but there are some general things we can say.

There are two areas in which power can fail. The first is in power generation, that is the natural gas plants and wind turbines and other sources of electricity. When these sources shut down unexpectedly during the February 2021 hard freeze in Texas, it led widespread outages. The second area of failure is in power distribution. That is, the poles and wires that carry power from plants to your home. It was these distribution channels that failed during Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 (i.e. trees falling into power lines).

For this upcoming winter storm we are going to see a cold air mass descend into Texas, but it will not be nearly so cold as that which the state experienced in February 2021. ERCOT forecasts ample electricity supply through the coldest period, next Monday. We think, barring catastrophe, this will be the case.

That leaves power distribution, handled locally primarily by CenterPoint Energy. I reached out to the company earlier today to ask about their concerns and plans, but did not receive a substantive response. My concern is that we see ice accumulations on tree limbs (causing them to fall on power lines), or ice on power lines that causes them to snap. Generally I think conditions in the Houston metro area will not be bad enough to cause widespread power disruptions, but that is just a guess. Again, we’re not experts. It’s my hope that the distribution companies are taking this threat seriously.

I have a flight on …

Look, I hear you on airport concerns. My wife and daughter are returning to Houston early on Monday morning, so this is something we’re watching closely. My sense is that Friday should be fine for air travel, and probably much of the day Saturday as well (for Bush Intercontinental Airport this will depend on when freezing temperatures arrive). As for Saturday evening through Monday morning, well, I just don’t know. I expect normal operations when temperatures are above freezing, which probably will be at least some of the time on Sunday, and after mid-morning on Monday. But beyond that, we just don’t know.

Our next update will be published by 7 am CT on Wednesday.