The ripple effect from the Buffalo Bills’ latest playoff disappointment is still developing, but there’s no getting around that both Josh Allen and his supporting cast dropped the ball in the divisional round.
We’ll start there in this week’s “Quick Outs” by putting Allen in our charting spotlight. Other topics to cover:
• One more round of applause for the Texans’ 2025 defense
• What happened to the vaunted Kyle Shanahan offense Saturday?
• A key Rams defender saves his best game for the biggest moment
QB charting: Josh Allen
Two things can be true at once: Allen’s handful of turnovers and missed opportunities cost the Bills their divisional-round game in Denver, and Allen’s teammates spectacularly failed him a number of times.
Let’s start with Allen’s culpability in all of this. He was solid on a down-to-down basis, especially when throwing under 20 yards, but a few key mistakes loomed large.
Josh Allen’s targets vs. Denver
YardsLeftCenterRight
20+
1/3
2/4 (2 DR, 1 INT)
1/2
11-20
3/3 (1 TD)
1/1
—
1-10
1/1
10/12 (1 TD)
2/3 (1 TD)
LoS
1/1 (1 ADJ)
4/5
3/4 (1 ADJ)
(Notes: ADJ – WR adjustment, PD – Pass breakup, DR – Drop; Screen passes not counted under man/zone splits or open/closed passing window splits)
Allen’s first critical mistake came on a fumble right before the half, which gifted the Broncos three points. From his own 30, Allen took off to scramble with about 12 seconds left on the game clock and no timeouts. Buffalo’s only shot to stop the clock at that point would have been an immediate spike, and even that would only have been in service of a 55-or-so-yard Hail Mary. There was so little for Allen to gain but so much to lose as Nik Bonitto came flying from behind to track him down and knock the ball out.
Then there’s the P.J. Locke interception in the third quarter. The Bills had a “dagger” concept schemed up to the Cover 4 half of the Broncos’ Cover 6 coverage (Cover 4 to one side; Cover 2 to the other). The play design got the Cover 4-side safety to bite down and leave space over the top for a deep post, but Allen did not respect that the split-field safety from the other side could work back to the middle in time. Allen took a few MPHs off his throw, enabling Locke to swoop in for the pick.
And finally, there was the missed deep post to Dawson Knox towards the end of regulation. Granted, that was a difficult throw with pressure all around Allen in the pocket, but it was also a throw we know he can make. It’s the kind of miss we’re disappointed with in part because Allen has set the bar so high for himself.
Allen’s divisional round numbers
CompAttTDINTDRWR ADJ
Accuracy totals
29
39
3
2
2
2
Under pressure
7
11
0
0
1
1
Out of pocket
6
7
0
0
1
1
5-plus pass rushers
13
16
2
1
1
1
Man coverage
11
13
1
1
1
2
Zone coverage
15
22
2
1
1
0
Tight-window throws
4
9
1
1
2
0
Open-window throws
22
26
2
0
0
2
But a miss is a miss, and Knox may well have had a chance to trot into the end zone had that ball hit him in the chest. The Bills tied the game right afterward with a field goal, but that was their chance to win it.
Allen was far from the only one to blame for the passing offense’s issues, however. For instance, Allen fumbled a second time in this game, but it happened because Khalil Shakir was supposed to chip Bonitto and instead launched him straight past left tackle Dion Dawkins into Buffalo’s QB.
The stats would also tell you Allen didn’t complete a single pass beyond 20 yards. As our first chart above suggests, that’s not all on him. Allen hit Keon Coleman in the back of the end zone — a pass that was both dropped and set to be negated by an offensive penalty anyway. He also found Brandin Cooks down the right sideline late in the game, but Cooks just barely failed to get a knee down. The controversial Ja’Quan McMillan interception wasn’t really on Allen, either. Even his miss to Mecole Hardman on second-and-11 in overtime was on the receiver for taking his route too high and not flattening out the way Allen expected.
Allen may not have connected on a pass thrown more than 20 yards Saturday, but he did his part on at least four attempts by delivering catchable throws.
The polarizing nature of quarterback discourse in the playoffs has two natural paths: Blame the QB for being a choker and a loser, or defend said QB within the context of the game and volatility of a one-game elimination bracket.
It’s easy to find room for both arguments in Allen’s performance. The Bills’ receiving corps did fail the QB in key moments and the second fumble wasn’t Allen’s fault at all. But Allen did turn the ball over a couple of other times and failed to capitalize on clutch opportunities late.
Allen was neither perfect nor the only man to blame. A quarterback we’ve all come to expect to be unstoppable was, briefly, mortal.
Scramble drill: The Texans’ defense was still incredible
Now that the Houston Texans have been knocked out of the postseason, I’d like to romanticize their incredible defense one last time.
That defense made life as hard as possible on the potential MVP, New England quarterback Drake Maye. It sacked him five times, including three strip sacks. On one of Maye’s rushing attempts, defensive tackle Tommy Togiai punched the ball out a fourth time.
So many of those sacks were instant and nearly game-breaking. Danielle Hunter exploded through right tackle Morgan Moses to knock the ball out of Maye’s hand on the third drive of the game, a fumble the Pats were lucky to recover. Right before the half, Will Anderson Jr. bulled through left tackle Will Campbell to slap the ball out again. In the middle of the third quarter, Anderson beat Campbell again in blazing-fast fashion and forced another fumble.
And it wasn’t just the sacks; Houston’s defense was suffocating down to down. The Patriots produced just a 34.4 percent offensive success rate, the fifth-lowest mark in a playoff win over the last decade, according to TruMedia. By EPA per play (-0.24), it was the third-worst showing.
The margins, even in New England’s best moments, were so slim.
Safety Calen Bullock got his fingertips on Maye’s first touchdown pass, to Demario Douglas, but it just wasn’t enough to knock it down. On the Patriots’ third touchdown, Kayshon Boutte barely got a step on All-Pro corner Derek Stingley Jr., then made a falling, one-handed catch in the end zone on a perfectly layered throw from Maye.
I’m not saying the Texans secretly deserved to win this game because of the defense or anything like that. But the 2025 Houston Texans had one of the best defenses I’ve ever seen, and it put on a hell of a show for its season finale.
Stat check: Saturday was the second-worst offensive game of the Kyle Shanahan era in San Francisco
Shanahan has coached (and called) 163 games for the 49ers since taking over the job in 2017. The offense has never been as bad as it was in his very first game with the franchise, a 23-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers, when the 49ers were starting Brian Hoyer, Carlos Hyde and Pierre Garcon. They didn’t stand a chance talent-wise and were clearly working through the kinks of a new offense.
It was a far cry from the units we’ve come to know in the 49ers’ Shanahan era.
The 49ers’ divisional-round loss to the Seahawks on Saturday, however, was the closest they’ve come to Shanahan’s putrid debut. They didn’t score a single touchdown in a 41-6 drubbing, marking the second consecutive time Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald held the Shanahan offense to zero touchdowns, having just done so in Week 18.
It’s deeper than the scoreboard, though. The advanced metrics, namely EPA, paint this as the second-worst game for Shanahan since he’s been in San Francisco.
In that 2017 Panthers game, the 49ers’ offense spit out -2.55 EPA per drive, according to TruMedia. Hoyer took four sacks, including a strip sack to start. He also threw a pick and barely produced 5.5 yards per attempt.
Against the Seahawks this past weekend, the 49ers produced -2.34 EPA per drive — the second-lowest mark under Shanahan and only the fourth time they’ve been below -2.00 EPA per drive. The other two instances were a 2018 C.J. Beathard start against a Rams team that eventually went to the Super Bowl and the 2022 conference championship game in which Brock Purdy and every other available 49ers quarterback suffered an injury versus the Eagles.
Of those four instances, Saturday was the only time the 49ers had a quality quarterback both start and finish the game. Sure, the 49ers had other injuries, including a significant one to tight end George Kittle, but they had their starting quarterback plus Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall all available. That’s not everyone, but it should have been more than enough to put together a functional offense.
And yet, Macdonald’s lights-out defense completely neutered the 49ers’ offense, both in the run and pass game. Purdy was helpless in the pocket and incapable of finding targets downfield. McCaffrey averaged 3.2 yards per carry. In critical situations, the Seahawks won time and time again — the fourth-and-1 stop on San Francisco’s first drive; Drake Thomas snuffing out a reverse flea-flicker screen for a 1-yard gain; a fourth-and-2 at midfield right out of the half, when Purdy had nowhere to go with the ball. It went on and on and on.
This isn’t shade towards Shanahan or the 49ers, at all. Instead, it’s an appreciation of the Seahawks’ defense. For really the first time in a decade, Shanahan’s offense had the bulk of its main cast and still was simply outcoached, outmanned and outplayed.
In a season with so many stellar defensive performances, that was Seattle’s best work.
Needle-mover: Kam Curl
Rams safety Kam Curl stepped up big-time against the Bears. A key contributor for Los Angeles’ new-look defense since signing with the team heading into the 2024 season, Curl played arguably his best game as a Ram in the biggest moment.
The team signed Curl two years ago to play near the box and defend the run. He more than carried his weight in this game. NextGenStats credited Curl with five “stops” (tackles that produce a negative EPA play for the offense).
That collection of plays included a 5-yard stop on a third-and-10 screen to Colston Loveland, as well as back-to-back stops on third and fourth down with a yard to go in the middle of the second quarter. Curl dumped Loveland while the tight end was on his way to being the second point of contact on third down, then screamed into the backfield untouched on the ensuing fourth down.
KAM CURL PICKS OFF WILLIAMS IN OT.
LARvsCHI on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/hpVRSPWjaD
— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2026
Curl’s deep coverage in this game was sensational, too.
In the middle of the second quarter, he laid the wood on DJ Moore on a deep sideline shot, forcing Moore to cough up the ball for an incompletion. Everything about Curl’s vision, footwork, closing speed and shoulder-first hitting technique on that play was teach-tape material.
Curl also swung the game back into the Rams’ favor in overtime. The Bears tried to attack him as the deep safety with a dagger-style concept — a deep vertical route paired with an in-breaking route cutting into the space underneath that vertical player. Curl wasn’t buying the vertical route from Rome Odunze, though, and nailed down on Moore’s route across the field to steal an interception. That change of possession ultimately helped seal a win for the Rams.
