A winter storm is headed to the eastern U.S. this weekend, and many meteorologists and news outlets are calling for snow in Pennsylvania at the end of the week. But how much should we expect?
The range seems to vary depending on which model is used, which outlet you ask, or when you’re taking a look at the forecast.
WGAL reports that contrasting models suggest two very different scenarios: one where central Pennsylvania is hammered with snow, and one where we receive none at all.
Further east, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that 5 or more inches of snow is likely, but also that “snow forecast busts are part of the cost of doing winter business in the Philly region.”
Nicholas Beaty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in State College, said that it’s too early for any clear predictions on where we may see snow, or how much.
But Beaty did note that “there’s an area of low pressure that’s going to come up to around the Central Plains area,” which is likely to bring a storm eastward.
“We’re looking at a pretty widespread system of snowfall,” he said. “The best signals — that’s the bulk of model guidance — have actually been south of Pennsylvania.”
While snow is more likely to the south of Harrisburg, Beaty said that “we are expecting the potential for some snowfall, especially across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley.”
“Upwards towards Harrisburg is probably the northern periphery of where we could be getting some potentially impactful snow,” he said. “If we do look at a low pressure system that goes further south, we could end up with very minimal snowfall. If it does trend a bit further north, that’s going to bring the chance for heavier snow to portions of York County, Lancaster, potentially even Dauphin and Lebanon counties as well.”
How much snow does that mean is hitting Pennsylvania on Saturday? According to Beaty, it’s too early to tell.
“At this time, it’s still a little early to talk about snowfall amounts,” Beaty said. “Based on that uncertainty with: where does the system set up? Where does it track? All of those added factors go into the forecast for this weekend.”
As the system gets closer throughout the week, predictions will follow, he said.
But Beaty did note that whatever snow results from this storm, it is expected to continue into Sunday, and people should “just continue to monitor the forecast” as we approach the weekend.
“Everybody has their different trusted weather sources,” he said. “Forecasts change over the course of days, as confidence increases. Tracks of low pressure change. So continue to monitor your trusted weather sources.”
