Chris Pratt’s sci-fi thriller “Mercy” will aim to knock down the James Cameron juggernaut “Avatar: Fire and Ash” at the weekend box office.
“Mercy” is aiming for $10 million to $13 million from 3,400 North American theaters over the weekend. Meanwhile “Avatar 3,” which has spent five weekends in the No. 1 spot on domestic charts, is targeting $8 million to $10 million in its sixth outing.
“Mercy” is the weekend’s only major newcomer and the first big release of the year for Amazon MGM, which plans to ramp up its theatrical slate over the next 11 months with offerings like the Ryan Gosling-led “Project Hail Mary,” toy-inspired “Masters of the Universe” and Colleen Hoover adaptation “Verity.” This film, which carries a PG-13 rating, cost $60 million to produce before factoring in global marketing expenses. Directed by Timur Bekmambetov, “Mercy” takes place in the near future as a detective (Pratt) stands trial for allegedly murdering his wife. An advanced AI judge (Rebecca Ferguson) will determine his fate.
“Avatar” movies are known for impressive staying power, and the first two films were No. 1 at the box office for seven consecutive weekends. Will the third trip to Pandora be able to match that record? So far, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” has earned $368 million in North America and $1.32 billion globally, ranking as the second-highest grossing release of 2025 behind “Zootopia 2” ($394 million in North America and $1.7 billion globally). Still, “Avatar 3” isn’t close to reaching the box office heights of its predecessors, 2009’s “Avatar” and 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which stand as two of the biggest movies in history with $2.9 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively.
January is traditionally a slower month at the movies, though the box office is pacing 18% ahead of 2025, according to Comscore. Cinema operators are hoping the momentum sustains — upcoming blockbuster hopefuls include “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,” Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” and “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” — since last year’s domestic tally fell short of projections.
“2026 was off to a good start thanks to strong holdover business,” says David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. However, he notes that as “kids are back in school now and the holiday [releases] are winding down, the box office is slowing. We don’t want to see a slump.”
