A NOTE FROM SCOTT Well, we have some answers.
On Thursday morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its nominations for the 98th Oscars. Sinners landed an astounding 16 noms, besting by two the record of 14 that was previously shared by 1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic and 2016’s La La Land. Moreover, it landed a nom in every category in which it had a plausible chance, whereas each of its fellow top contenders had at least one glaring hiccup: One Battle After Another missed Chase Infiniti for best actress; Hamnet missed Paul Mescal for best supporting actor, as well as cinematography and film editing; Frankenstein missed Guillermo del Toro for best director, as well as VFX; Marty Supreme missed makeup/hairstyling; The Secret Agent missed original screenplay; and the list goes on.
All in all, it was a remarkable showing for Sinners — but was it enough to jolt the widely held belief that One Battle After Another, which already won top honors at the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards, is the film to beat for the best picture Oscar?
Over the 16 seasons since the Academy returned to a preferential/ranked-choice ballot to determine its best picture winner, the film with the most noms (or one of the films that tied for the most noms) went on to win best picture only six times (Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Shape of Water, Birdman, The King’s Speech and The Hurt Locker). But 16 noms — three more than the second-most-nominated film (One Battle) and seven more than the third (Frankenstein, Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value tied with nine) — feels like a statement. And an increasing number of smart industry insiders believe that Sinners is better positioned than One Battle moving forward.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see how these two films — both from great filmmakers who are telling largely original stories about race in America — are promoted during phase two, not least because they share the same distributor, Warner Bros., which, largely because of them, led all studios by far with 30 noms … and is now, ironically enough, in the process of being sold. (Fun fact: It has been more than a half-century since we last had a best picture race in which there were exactly two clear frontrunners and both hailed from the same studio — Paramount’s Chinatown vs. The Godfather Part II, which co-led the field with 11 noms each, 51 years ago!)
I expect that Warners will give its two films equal treatment — as it has done thus far, as best as I can tell, with FYC ads, billboards, etc. — and let the chips fall where they may. (Indeed, even at award shows, studio co-chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy split up so that one can sit with the One Battle folks and the other can sit with the Sinners folks.) But this won’t stop personal reps from going all out on behalf of their respective clients.
In any event, my first post-noms read of all 24 Oscar races can be found below. The final round of Oscars voting will begin on Feb. 26 and end on March 5. And the 98th Oscars ceremony, to be hosted by Conan O’Brien, will follow on March 15.
PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures
Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler, Zinzi Coogler and Sev Ohanian
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy and Adam Somner
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg — podcast (Spielberg)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berensten Ottmar
5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Timothée Chalamet, Anthony Katagas and Josh Safdie — podcast (Chalamet)
6. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer and Teddy Schwarzman
7. Frankenstein (Netflix) — J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro and Scott Stuber — podcast 1, 2 and 3 (del Toro)
8. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Jerry Bruckheimer, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, Chad Oman and Brad Pitt — podcast (Bruckheimer)
9. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Emilie Lesclaux
10. Bugonia (Focus) — Ed Guiney, Lars Knudsen, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe and Emma Stone — podcast (Stone) -
Best Director
Image Credit: Focus Features
Projected Order of Finish
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
4. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24) -
Best Actor
Image Credit: A24
Projected Order of Finish
1. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
2. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
3. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon) — podcast
5. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
2. Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast
3. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — podcast
4. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
2. Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
3. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
4. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
5. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Quantrell Colbert/Warner Bros.
Projected Order of Finish
1. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcast
3. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
Projected Order of Finish
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus) — Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
4. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1, 2 and 3 -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes
Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
2. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
4. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi — podcast
5. Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow -
Best International Feature
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)
3. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
4. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
5. Spain — Sirāt (Neon) -
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO
Projected Order of Finish
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu and Alisa Payne
2. The Alabama Solution (HBO) — Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Kino Lorber) — TBD
4. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple) — Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Ryan White and Stef Willen
5. Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki -
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Remebers – MountainA
Projected Order of Finish
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang and Michelle L.M. Wong
2. Zootopia 2 (Disney) — Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
3. Arco (Neon) — Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman — podcast (Portman)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS) — Liane-Cho Han, Henri Magalon, Nidia Santiago and Maïlys Vallade
5. Elio (Disney/Pixar) — Mary Alice Drumm, Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian and Domee Shi -
Best Casting
Image Credit: Neon
Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold
5. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix
Projected Order of Finish
1. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios
Projected Order of Finish
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter — podcast
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Deborah L. Scott -
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Scott Garfield/Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures/Apple Original Films
Projected Order of Finish
1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
5. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté -
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: GKIDS
Projected Order of Finish
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Cliona Furey, Mike Hill and Jordan Samuel
2. The Smashing Machine (A24) — Glen Griffin, Kazu Hiro and Bjoern Rehbein
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
4. Kokuho (GKIDS) — Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu and Kyoko Toyokawa
5. The Ugly Stepsister (IFC/Shudder) — Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg -
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny Greenwood
3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Max Richter
5. Bugonia (Focus) — Jerskin Fendrix -
Best Original Song
Image Credit: SimonSays Entertainment/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson — listen
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren — listen — podcast
4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner — listen
5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Nicholas Pike — listen -
Best Production Design
Projected Order of Finish
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
5. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin -
Best Sound
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Steve Boeddeker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pachecho, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker
3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaille and Brad Zoern
4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
5. Sirāt (Neon) — Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Apple TV+
Projected Order of Finish
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri and Eric Saindon
2. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Nicolas Chevalier, Keith Dawson, Robert Harrington and Ryan Tudhope
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Donnie Dean, Espen Nordahl, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter
4. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal) — Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery
5. The Lost Bus (Apple) — Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin, Charlie Noble and David Zaretti -
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Antidote Films/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. Retirement Plan — Andrew Freedman and John Kelly
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
3. Forevergreen — Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
4. The Three Sisters — Konstantin Bronzit
5. Butterfly — Ron dyens and Florence Miailhe -
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO
Projected Order of Finish
1. All the Empty Rooms — Conall Jones and Joshua Seftel — podcast (Seftel)
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud — Juan Arredondo and Craig Renaud
3. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” — Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins — podcast (Nevins)
4. Perfectly a Strangeness — Alison McAlpine
5. The Devil Is Busy — Geeta Gandbhir and Christalyn Hampton -
Best Live Action Short
Image Credit: Tel Aviv University Film & Television Department/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Order of Finish
1. Two People Exchanging Saliva — Natalie Musteata and Alexandre Singh
2. The Singers — Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
3. A Friend of Dorothy — James Dean and Lee Knight
4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama — Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
5. Butcher’s Stain — Oron Caspi and Meyer Levinson-Blount
