Each week through the end of the NBA regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. Last week, we ranked the contenders based on BetMGM’s betting odds at the time. This week, it’s time to give our own rankings.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis is a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
On track to be ineligible: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (missed 12 games) | Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (missed 14) | Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (missed 14) | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors (missed 10)
Five honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Curry | Wembanyama | Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+700 to win)
Dončić’s numbers are tremendous. He’s leading the league in scoring at 33.5 per game, and he’s putting up 8.7 assists and 7.7 rebounds each night. And despite shooting only 33.7 percent from deep, he has a 60.8 true shooting percentage because he leads the league in free-throw attempts. That doesn’t stop him from complaining to refs every chance he gets. His defense is so bad that he’s barely on this list, and I really struggled with him or Maxey in this final spot. I’m going with Dončić because of team success and his ridiculous numbers. Considering how bad this team is defensively, it would be more valuable for him to expend some more energy on that end.
4. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+8000 to win)
Edwards is scoring at a career-best rate of 29.9 points per game. And after showing a new and improved 3-point shot last season, he’s even better at it this year, jumping from 39.5 to 41.7 percent from deep on over 11 attempts per game. His 62.9 percent true shooting is incredible for the volume and the type of shots he’s taking, and he’s becoming one of the most special scorers in the league. His defense is still very high level, and he’s really cut down on his turnovers. The reason I’ve got Edwards fourth here is because of how brilliant he’s been in the clutch, on top of everything else he does. He’s making 68 percent of his shots in the clutch, which was the biggest area he needed to improve upon.
3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1000 to win)
Cunningham’s shooting is down (from 46.9/35.6/84.6 to 45.2/32.7/82.4) this season, but it’s not enough to hurt him in this discussion. I thought his defensive ability was a little overstated last season, but he’s been spectacular on both ends of the floor this year. His defense more than justifies his two-sides-of-the-floor reputation now. He’s nearly averaging 25 points and 10 assists per game (25.7 and 9.8), and he’s dropped his turnover rate from 16.0 percent to 14.4 percent. We’re seeing the best player on the best team in the Eastern Conference bring it almost every night. Not to mention, he’s entirely reliable in the clutch now.
2. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+3000 to win)
To have this Celtics team where it is with the cuts that happened to the roster this past summer might truly be the definition of value. Brown has been incendiary on the court with his scoring and his defense. There is no help from Jayson Tatum (yet) to take some of that defensive attention away from him. And yet, we’re not seeing a dip in efficiency as Brown has greatly increased his volume and usage rate. For the Celtics to be the No. 2 seed in the East at the halfway point is a testament to just how great Brown has been. On top of that, he’s playing great defense on the toughest offensive weapon every night. Brown is a lot closer to leading this thing than people may assume.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-350 to win)
Somehow, Gilgeous-Alexander is even better than what he did in his MVP campaign a year ago. He’s posting 66.8 percent true shooting on 31.8 points per game. We’ve only had a 30-point-or-better-per-game scorer with a true shooting percentage over 65 five other times in NBA history. Curry did it twice. Adrian Dantley did it twice. Joel Embiid did it. SGA’s current true shooting percentage would be just under the 66.9 Curry posted in his unanimous MVP season of 2015-16. The Thunder have been without Jalen Williams for much of the season, and even when he was playing, we didn’t see the All-NBA version of a year ago. As dominant as the Thunder are, they’re an awful offensive team without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, and they’re highly elite with him on it. He’s on track to go back-to-back.
Defensive Player of the Year
On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama | Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers (missed 13 games)
Ineligible: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks (missed 24 games)
Two honorable mentions: Chet Holmgren, Thunder | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
3. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets (+2500 to win)
The argument for Holmgren in the top three is that the Thunder’s defense is unreal with him on the floor, but it doesn’t fall off much when he leaves. Adebayo is really good defensively, but we don’t see much of a difference when he leaves the floor. With Thompson, we see the biggest difference, and that’s on a defensive-minded team. It’s not a perfect metric by any means, but the versatility of Thompson and his impact give him the slight edge for now.
2. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+500 to win)
Gobert could set the record for DPOY awards won with five, if Wemby doesn’t end up qualifying. After getting out to a slow start this season, Gobert really turned on the defense the last couple of months. You can easily score on this team when he’s on the bench. When he’s on the floor? He’s got the Wolves locking down opponents. Part of me wants this to happen because the reaction would be hilarious.
Victor Wembanyama blocks a shot at the rim by Timberwolves forward Joan Beringer. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
1. Wembanyama (+200 to win)
If we think Wembanyama is going to only miss two more games this season, then he’s going to run away with DPOY. I know Holmgren is the odds-on favorite right now, but that seems to be a product of just finding a good defensive player on the league’s best defense and calling it a day. I’m not convinced Holmgren has been even one of the two best defenders on his team this season, which isn’t a knock on him. Wembanyama has been otherworldly, as we all expected, but he’s the difference between San Antonio having a bad defense and the most elite defense. If he qualifies, this is his.
Rookie of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+2500 to win)
It’s incredible that in most seasons, a rookie campaign like Edgecombe’s would lead the way for this honor. Unfortunately, he’s competing with two other big-time seasons.
2. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+600 to win)
Only Dantley, Bill Cartwright and Zion Williamson have had rookie seasons with 19 points per game or better with a true shooting of at least 60 percent. Knueppel’s is on pace to be the fourth one.
1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (-800 to win)
Now that Flagg has broken through his rookie struggles and started being the player so many thought he’d be, it’s kind of tough to envision what it would take for him to not win the award. That’s kind of unreal with the numbers that Knueppel is putting up.
Sixth Man of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
3. Collin Gillespie, Suns (+2200 to win)
It’s tough to keep Johnson and Jaquez out of the top three, but Gillespie has been integral to the Suns’ success. He’s fit in really well with their aggressive style of defense, and he’s been a great option on offense. His shooting is about as reliable as it gets, and he’s done a great job of getting teammates involved with his playmaking.
2. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+300 to win)
Reid could very easily end up with his second Sixth Man award, but I’m not sure it’s as much of a lock as the numbers say. He’s currently tied with Johnson from the Spurs for betting odds, but we’re not seeing the consistency you expect from Reid. He had an ugly December, but he’s bounced back really well in January and appears to be back on track.
1. Ajay Mitchell, Thunder (+1000 to win)
Anthony Black would be leading this for me, except I don’t think he’ll end up qualifying for the award. He has more games started than coming off the bench, so he won’t qualify if that keeps. But Mitchell has been a perfect role player off the bench for the Thunder. It’s his first year in this role, and he’s had so many games in which he just keeps the train rolling for OKC.
Coach of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Mitch Johnson, Spurs | Darko Rajaković, Toronto Raptors
J.B. Bickerstaff argues with referee John Butler during a Pistons-Heat game earlier this month in Detroit. (Lon Horwedel / Imagn Images)
3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (+170 to win)
It’s difficult to not have Bickerstaff in the top spot, and he may end up there anyway. He’s done a great job with the Pistons, and he would be very deserving. I wonder if voters will think the Pistons are the best in the East because of him, or if it’s just by default with the state of the conference.
2. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+350 to win)
A lot of COY voting often seems to be based on what expectations were going into the season. If that’s the case this year, it’ll be hard not to give it to Mazzulla. Some people didn’t even have the Celtics staying in the top six because of the exodus of talent. But this team is second in the East, and even with the weaker state of the conference, that’s incredibly impressive.
1. Jordan Ott, Suns (+350 to win)
Speaking of exceeding expectations, nobody had the Suns being a good team, let alone a team that might finish in the top six in the West. While Dillon Brooks has received a lot of credit for changing the culture, I’d say Ott’s presence is the biggest reason. He has them playing super aggressive defense and really smart offense. And even with some of their injuries, they haven’t really skipped a beat. He’d be my winner right now.
Most Improved Player
On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama
Two honorable mentions: Michael Porter Jr., Brooklyn Nets | Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks
3. Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets (+4000 to win)
Granted, a lot of this seems to have taken form since the major injuries to Jokić, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun, but Watson’s improvement is what’s helping keep the Nuggets afloat. He’s shooting lights out and playing phenomenal defense, and it’s coming with a lot better scoring all across the board. It’s perfect timing, too, with his restricted free agency this summer.
2. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (-165 to win)
Almost every year would see a player taking a leap like Avdija be a lock for MIP. He’s taken the reins of the Blazers and has them as a pretty good team. His points and assists are way up, and he’s nearly at 10 free-throw attempts per game. He’s gone from a solid role player to a potential All-Star. We saw some of this last year, but not like this. It’s come with the Blazers needing someone to step up.
1. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+400 to win)
I can’t believe George isn’t the outright favorite. He went from being a mediocre young lead guard in his first two seasons to an actual weapon for Utah. He’s not just putting up numbers because someone has to score; he’s crushing opposing defenses on a lot of nights. He’s up to 24.4 points per game, and his true shooting went from 53.6 percent in his first two seasons to 61.5 percent this season. We might get to a point where the Jazz have to sit him to focus on tanking. He’s too good now.
