And just like that, the Denver Broncos’ wild season came to a sudden halt. Despite Sean Payton’s confident messaging all week, the Broncos were unable to overcome the loss of Bo Nix, falling to the New England Patriots 10-7 in the AFC championship game.
The elements played a key part in the outcome of this game, with temperatures in the teens and a blizzard overtaking Empower Field at Mile High in the second half. The weather impacted every facet of this game.
The Broncos have much to be proud of this season, but they came up short of advancing to the Super Bowl, mostly by their own doing.
Before we officially turn the page to the 2026 offseason, we must take stock of what happened on Sunday and why the Broncos were unable to get past the Patriots at home in the AFC title game. Let’s get to the final takeaways article of this wild season.
Payton’s Fateful Decision
The Broncos had all the momentum in the first quarter. Jarrett Stidham delivered a touchdown-scoring drive and the Broncos’ defense was shutting down Drake Maye.
Everything began to go sideways for the Broncos in the second quarter, and the turning point was Sean Payton’s decision to go for it on 4th-&-1 from the Patriots’ 14-yard line. Instead of taking the points on a field goal, Payton went for it, calling a screen that looked like a broken play and was almost picked off.
On one hand, you love the confidence and aggression. On the other, Nix wasn’t out there on the field to bail Payton out if it didn’t go Denver’s way on fourth down.
Payton was aware of the weather forecast. He knew that with a snowstorm set to hit somewhere around halftime, first-half points would come at a premium because it would be so hard to score in the second. And yet, he still went for it.
That decision ended up being the difference in this game. The Broncos lost by the very three points Payton forewent early in the second quarter.
Payton’s trust and belief in Stidham was admirable, but it proved to be misguided — especially on that fourth-down play. That decision will likely haunt Payton for a while.
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Stidham Overwhelmed by More Than the Elements
Jan 25, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) drops back to pass against the New England Patriots during the second half in the 2026 AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
This was a tough game to play quarterback in. The bitter temperatures, which soon gave way to a blizzard, were always going to make it difficult for the quarterback.
However, Stidham appeared to be in over his head well before the worst of the weather hit. Once the Broncos got past their first 15 scripted plays, the backup-turned-starter seemed to lose his poise.
Starting in the second quarter, Stidham began to look jittery. As if he were channeling his inner Russell Wilson, Stidham held onto the ball way too long, which caused some serious problems for the Broncos.
Case in point: Stidham’s brutal fumble later in the second quarter. If he just throws that ball away instead of holding onto it while drifting left toward the sidline, he and the Broncos would have lived to fight another down.
Instead, Stidham, after double-clutching the ball, was hit as he threw, and the Patriots recovered. We can debate whether it was a forward or backward pass, but it shouldn’t have happened.
Given a short field, Maye and the Patriots were in the end zone just a few plays later. The momentum had fully swung in New England’s favor, and try though they might, the Broncos could not wrest it back.
The Broncos’ second-half offensive numbers were brutal. The storm overwhelmed Stidham, and the Patriots, after scoring a field goal on their nine-minute drive to open the third quarter, just battened down the hatches and played the most conservative brand of football you’ll ever see in a playoff game because they knew Stidham couldn’t move the ball.
Despite all the obstacles the weather created and the way events had unfolded, including two missed field goals (we’ll get to that later), Stidham still got one more shot to make a stab at winning this game with three minutes left. Alas, he threw up an ill-advised ball deep to Marvin Mims, Jr. that Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez plucked out of the air. Ball game.
Stidham stepped into a very unfavorable situation. It didn’t help that in the biggest game of the year, the Broncos’ receiving corps again had several bad dropped passes.
Stidham deserves credit for his courage and effort, but I think most fans left that game with the sickening feeling that if Nix had played, the Broncos would be going to the Super Bowl.
Missed Opportunities
Jan 25, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos place kicker Wil Lutz (3) prepares to kick a field goal against the New England Patriots during the first half in the 2026 AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
The story of this loss, besides coaching hubris and injuries, was the missed opportunities. Despite Payton’s bad decision to forego points in the first half, the Broncos still had every chance to win this game.
Kicker Wil Lutz has been clutch for this team all season. He picked the worst possible moment to break that trend of reliability.
Granted, the elements, again, played a role, but Lutz’s missed 54-yard field goal at the end of the first half turned out to be a killer. Although the snowstorm had yet to fully descend at Mile High, the bitter temperatures and the wind played a part in that missed kick.
And yet, Lutz got a chance to redeem himself in the fourth quarter, after Patriots punter Bryce Baringer shanked a 26-yard punt to set the Broncos up on New England’s 33-yard line with about seven minutes left to go.
The Broncos went three-and-out, but moved the ball to the 28-yard line. The snow once again reared its head, as the hold was slightly bobbled, though punter Jeremy Crawshaw got it lined up in time for Lutz’s stroke, but it came off the kicker’s foot rather low and was blocked by Leonard Taylor III.
After the game, Lutz revealed that he and Crawshaw may have lined up a yard too close because they couldn’t clearly see the hashmarks on the field.
“Unfortunately you couldn’t see the lines on the field and honestly I think we might have been a yard short on the snap,” Lutz said post-game. “But you can’t see the lines on the field and we had to kind of estimate… guy comes through and it gets blocked.”
Another missed opportunity. If we add them all up, the Broncos left nine points on the field on Sunday. That would have given Denver a 16-10 win. We’d be talking about packing bags for the Super Bowl.
You can maybe survive one missed opportunity for points in a conference championship game. Three times? Few teams can prevail in such circumstances, especially in the elements, and with a backup quarterback who hadn’t thrown a meaningful NFL pass in 749 days.
This is why Payton and the Broncos are going to have hard time shaking this loss off. But they will. This too shall pass, and Nix will be back in 12 weeks to begin leading the long climb back to the top of the NFL mountain again.
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