Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s quarter-finals at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt both players to win a set in Coco Gauff v Elina Svitolina at 6/4 (General)
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Alex de Minaur 3-0 at 11/8 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
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Aryna Sabalenka v Iva Jovic (0030 GMT)
A key factor to note ahead of Tuesday’s play is that the severe heat is due to return to Melbourne – it may top 40C.
That means we’re almost certain to see the Rod Laver Arena roof pulled across at some point during the day, although the tournament’s ‘heat stress index’ may not have reached a high enough reading for this first match of day to be played indoors.
That will be a concern for Jovic, who was one of those to wilt in extreme conditions at the 2024 US Open, while she also struggled in Wuhan last season.
The rising star has impressed to get to this stage, taking out Jasmine Paolini and crushing Yulia Putintseva in the last round.
However, facing the world number one is clearly a different kettle of fish. Throw in the unhelpful conditions and the fact this is her first Grand Slam quarter-final and it’s not hard to envisage this being something of a struggle.
That said, Sabalenka hasn’t been at her brilliant best so far – she’s needed three tie-breaks in her last two matches, although she’s won them all and is yet to lose a set in Melbourne.
Sabalenka is evens to cover the -5.5-game handicap, although preference would be for under 20.5 games at 8/11.
Alex Zverev v Learner Tien (not before 0230 GMT)
Outright pick Daniil Medvedev was comfortably outpointed by Tien, who gave him just seven games and handed out a bagel set.
It’s another impressive result which shows where the American is going – much higher in the rankings – while the performance also proved his game is developing. Medvedev described Tien’s display as “super-aggressive”, a far cry from his early days on the tour.
A repeat here has the potential to land another upset.
I’ve been keen to take on Zverev from the start but it’s proved a poor strategy thus far. While he dropped sets in each of the first three rounds, the fact is he’s back in the last eight and was way too good for Francisco Cerundolo on Sunday.
Improved fitness appears to be a key for the German, who said after that win: “When I’m healthy, I’m happy on the court and everything becomes a bit easier. I don’t want to jinx it but hopefully we have three more tough matches and hopefully I can stay that way.”
The head-to-head stands at 1-1 (Tien winning the only hardcourt encounter) and I can see him causing some problems here with a close contest potentially in store.
Over 37.5 games is the tentative call, although it’s notable that the last-16 matches were nearly all very one-sided.
Coco Gauff v Elina Svitolina (0800 GMT)
The opening match of the night session could be a cracking battle between two of the sport’s great fighters.
Svitolina comes into it in great form – it’s now nine unbeaten in 2026 for the Auckland champion, who has lost only one set in that run and beat Mirra Andreeva in the last round.
Gauff, meanwhile, has lost sets to both Hailey Baptiste and Karolina Muchova in the last two rounds. We all know how the American’s game can go off – serve and forehand can both be vulnerable – but it’s also fair to say that if she’s at her top level, she will win this.
Even if those old flaws do rear their head, Gauff’s battling qualities are often enough to get her through tight spots. That was the case when the pair last met, at the 2024 US Open, when Svitolina looked well on course for victory but Gauff recovered to win in three.
Overall, Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-1. Svitolina has won a set in every match, though, with two of the three going to a decider.
A repeat here would be no surprise and 6/4 about both players winning a set looks decent to me.
Svitolina’s impressive form means Gauff will need to deliver and while I’d expect the American to ultimately prevail, her mid-match lapses are fairly frequent and could easily allow Svitolina to gain more than a foothold at some point in this encounter.
Carlos Alcaraz v Alex de Minaur (to follow)
So, De Minaur is back in the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam. Bravo for consistency – this is his sixth at the last eight majors.
However, he’s lost the previous five and is yet to play in a Grand Slam semi-final. It’s a wall he seems unable to climb.
Basically, this is the time the quality usually rises and De Minaur’s record against the elite is frankly poor.
He’s lost 17 of his last 20 matches against top-10 opponents. And across the Slams, he’s gone just 3-12 against top-10 players over the years.
Unfortunately for him, it’s world number one Carlos Alcaraz on the other side of the net here and it’s hard to envisage anything other than the usual, familiar tale unfolding.
Looking for reasons as to why it might change, we must ask ourselves ‘what’s different?’
Well, you could say De Minaur is playing great right now – he has dismantled Alexander Bulbik and Frances Tiafoe in the last two rounds. There’s also the heat factor in play here which could disrupt either man.
However, the fact is Alcaraz has won all five of the previous meetings and, unlike De Minaur, is yet to lose a set in Melbourne.
His remodelled serve is producing a higher percentage of legal first serves, while it’s highly unlikely he’ll make as many unforced errors as Bublik and Tiafoe do.
Eleven of De Minaur’s 17 recent losses to the top 10 have come in straight sets, while eight of the 12 Grand Slam defeats have also been via that method.
Getting 11/8 about Alcaraz handing down another thumping looks the way to go.
Posted at 12:30 GMT on 26/01/26
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