The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts Grand Canyon on Tuesday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Grand Canyon (13-6, 6-2 MW) at Nevada (14-6, 6-3)
When: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: FS1/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: No line posed yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Win the free throw battle: Grand Canyon has the nation’s No. 27-ranked defense, per KenPom, which is bested among MW schools by only New Mexico and San Diego State, which held Nevada to 73 and 68 points, respectively. The Wolf Pack averaged 70.5 points in those two games and has tallied 77.7 points in its other MW contests. So, Nevada’s offense faces a stiff challenge against a Grand Canyon defense that is solid across the board. There is not one stand-out aspect for the Antelopes on defense, but they defend the three well and limit offensive rebounds, two Wolf Pack strengths. An area Nevada must exploit is the foul line. The Antelopes foul on 26.5 percent of its opponents’ possessions, which is a high rate. Both of these teams get to the foul line a lot. Nevada needs to win that battle given it’s at home.
2. A good game from Comer: Nevada’s point guard play has been inconsistent, but when either Tayshawn Comer or Tyler Rolison has played well, the Wolf Pack is really tough to beat. Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, those two have lacked ideal consistency despite being game-changers when playing at their peak. Comer is getting the lion’s share of the lead guard minutes, so we’ll highlight him here. In Nevada’s last eight games, Comer is averaging 10 points while shooting 36.8 percent. Before the stretch, he was averaging 16.1 points on 43.9 percent shooting. Getting Comer comfortable on offense again is a big key for Nevada’s long-term outlook. And against Grand Canyon, which has some high-powered offensive guards, the Wolf Pack needs a big game from Comer, who has been a mid-game maestro in his best games and is capable of that against the Antelopes.
3. Hem off the paint: Grand Canyon has struggled offensively this season (157th in KenPom, ninth out of 12 MW teams). But the Antelopes have made strides in recent games. It’s still not great and ranks ninth in the MW in league play, but Grand Canyon’s efficiency has bumped from 106.2 points per 100 possessions in non-league to 111.3 in MW action. One of the big issues has been the 3-point shooting, with the Antelopes making only 30.3 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. Grand Canyon, however, has strong guard play led by Jaden Henley (17.2 ppg) and Makaih Williams (13.1 ppg), both of whom can break down a defense and get into the paint. Those two have combined for 173 “close twos,” or more than nine shots per game at the bucket. The Antelopes’ improved MW offense has been a result of better two-point shooting (53.2 percent), so Nevada must keep those guards out of the paint.
Prediction
Nevada 73, Grand Canyon 69: This is the only regular-season matchup between the teams, which is (a) good for Nevada because winning at Grand Canyon is really tough and (b) also kind of a bummer because the Antelopes’ home-court atmosphere is one of the West Coast’s best, which would have been a fun gameday atmosphere to experience. This game could go a long way to determining which team gets a bye at the MW Tournament, so there are big stakes. Grand Canyon is playing its best basketball of the season having beaten Utah State, San Diego State and Fresno State in its last three. But the Antelopes could be without key starter Brian Moore Jr., who missed the team’s last game, and Nevada has had more offensive firepower, which should be enough for a close home win. Season record: 14-6
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
