It’s intriguing final weekend at the January box office — if only one, or two or three of these wide releases can overperform after last weekend’s monster storm shut the lights at 400 theaters.
Yes, 20th Century Studio’s Sam Raimi directed island genre thriller Send Help will lead stateside with around $15M+ in North America at 3,400 sites (with potential for upside based on those great reviews at 94% certified fresh), and around another $10M-plus abroad for a $25M global debut. That could finally de-throne Avatar: Fire and Ash which has been riding a global weekend perch for the last six weekends. Send Help follows a nepo tech boss played by Dylan O’Brien, who gets stuck on a deserted island with his brilliant, nerdy office accountant (Rachel McAdams), who he disrespects, but, man is she well versed in survival skills.
Offshore the pic has an 80% footprint with a good representation of PLFs and 3D screens with the UK opening a week later and France two weeks later to sidestep local competition. Today Send Help goes out in Belgium, Indonesia, Korea, and Philippines followed on Thursday with Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bolivia, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Czech Rep, Denmark, Ecuador, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Paraguay, Peru, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad, UAE, Ukraine, and Uruguay. Friday’s offshore markets are Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and Vietnam. This type of genre pic can win over Europe and Latin America. Foreign comps are Don’t Breath ($16M international debut in like for likes) and Evil Dead Rise ($17M foreign opening). Previews stateside start at 2PM and will roll in early sneaks from Saturday at 500 sites, which were largely battered from the storm, however, did well in sunny areas like California. First choice is best with men under 25.
YouTuber Markiplier’s self-financed, self-distributed feature take of videogame Iron Lung is booked at 3,105 theaters in U.S. and Canada with over 1,000 locations in Australia, New Zealand and Europe. Stateside, Iron Lung counts $6M in presales which points to a $9M-$10M opening. Can the movie play beyond its core faithful? It would be amazing if it happens as the marketing campaign has been thrifty with Markiplier posting a trailer at the start of December, and one sheets made for in-theater. There were fan screenings last night, which continue tonight and into Thursday, starting at 5PM. The under 25 set are the best for Iron Lung. The pic is rated R just like Send Help.
Black Bear’s second theatrical release, the-Rated actoin pic Shelter, from star Jason Statham and director Ric Roman Waugh, is looking at $5M-$7M at 2,726 sites in U.S./Canada. Previews start Thursday at 10:45am. Men over 25 are first choice. Blurb: A recluse on a remote Scottish island rescues a girl from the sea, unleashing a perilous sequence of events that culminate in an attack on his home, compelling him to face his turbulent history.
This brings us to Amazon MGM Studios’ $40M licensed documentary, Melania, which is gaining steam in presales we hear with around $1M indicating a $5M-plus debut at 1,500 sites, potentially the best in a decade besting Angel Studios’ After Death ($5M). Comps are right-wing movies like the Matt Walsh Am I Racist which opened to $4.5M and finaled around $12M in U.S./Canada. This Brett Ratner directed intimate look at the First Lady in the 20 days leading up to the 2025 inauguration isn’t a movie that’s meant to pop in NYC and LA, rather it’s poised to overindex in right-wing leaning hubs like Houston, Phoenix, Orlando and Miami as well as rural areas with populations under 500K. Any success of the pic is geo-centric. The window is well beyond ten days we understand. So far, per distribution sources, presales seem organic: There’s no sense that MAGA groups are snapping up tickets in bulk ala Angel Studios with right-wing groups and Sound of Freedom.
Also bowing this weekend is the Paris Hilton documentary Infinite Icon: A Visual Memoir at 677 locations via CJ 40 Plex and Western Film Services.
