Will Kendrick Lamar finally win Album of the Year? Does Leon Thomas have the advantage in Best New Artist? And who’s getting the first award for Best Traditional Country Album?
Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos: Getty Images
You can feel the Grammys both contracting and expanding lately as new categories seek to address ancient and emerging issues. This decade’s addition of awards for African artists, dance-pop recordings, and, just this year, traditional country albums spreads acclaim and opportunities around a wider palate of nominees. But the willingness to include more artists leaves critics’, viewers’, and performers’ existing Grammy gripes feeling particularly egregious. The 50th anniversary of the Ramones self-titled arrives in spring, and this Sunday’s ceremony recognizing contemporary and traditional country, folk, Americana, bluegrass, roots, and the blues as distinct entities forces punk music to fight with spicy pop and rock acts in alternative and metal categories, narrowing chances for alternative and metal bands. Spanish-speaking rock artists end up squeezed in with urbano megastars under a vast Latin pop umbrella. The Grammys are changing; the Grammys are desperately in need of still more change.
In spite of these and other frustrating inconsistencies, this year is a great class of nominees, led by Kendrick Lamar with nine. It’s also full of potential for the kind of tomfoolery that has inspired people to avoid the voting process or ceremony over the years. The complaint that the Grammys are disrespectfully stingy with which awards get shown during the main event — this was the sticking point in a hip-hop artist boycott in 1989 — will probably hold true of achievements in dozens of genres tucked away in the pre-show. And some of the cooler nominations still feel ornamental to what often turns into a celebration of massive mainstream impact in music. This stings less thanks to the healthy variety of all-timers currently in the field.
Record of the Year
“DtMF,” Bad Bunny
“Manchild,” Sabrina Carpenter
“Anxiety,” Doechii
“Wildflower,” Billie Eilish
“Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga
“Luther,” Kendrick Lamar featuring SZA
“The Subway,” Chappell Roan
“APT.,” Rosé featuring Bruno Mars
Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther” built on the massive success of “Not Like Us,” upending a couple of the Drake diss’s hip-hop chart feats by pivoting to radio-ready romanticism and a tandem stadium tour. It exudes a self-assured lightness, a function of time spent refining a craft. “Luther” will mow through the competition here. Sabrina Carpenter’s song about guys being goofy and Bad Bunny’s single about wishing to be more present in fleeting moments might’ve been more pertinent to a rough last year animated by masculine aggression. But Record of the Year is not a pertinence or a lyric award. It salutes the auditory components of a track, and “Luther” boils over with fluttering keys, strings, vocals, and samples in addition to being a 14-week No. 1 hit on the “Billboard Hot 100.”
Will Win: “Luther”
Should Win: “Luther”
Album of theYear
Debí Tirar Más Fotos, Bad Bunny
Swag, Justin Bieber
Man’s Best Friend, Sabrina Carpenter
Let God Sort Em Out, Clipse
Mayhem, Lady Gaga
GNX, Kendrick Lamar
Mutt, Leon Thomas
Chromakopia, Tyler, the Creator
Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS is the Herbie Hancock’s River: The Joni Letters or the Ray Charles’s Genius Loves Company of the 2026 pack. It works toward the same goals as those studio albums infused with lessons in history and musicology that used to devour top honors prior to a deluge of pop-star wins in the 21st century. FOToS squeezes a great deal of Puerto Rican culture and politics into the format of an event album that is aching to get children and grandparents on the same page. But there are seven other high-water marks in wildly different careers to contend with, like Sabrina Carpenter’s Republican-reviled Man’s Best Friend, Lady Gaga’s self-mythologizing Mayhem, and Tyler, the Creator’s versatile Chromakopia. One reality that’s clear from this selection is that hip-hop is no longer an Album of the Year outlier: Half this crop raps. Kendrick Lamar’s commercial juggernaut GNX is going to stomp through here after last year’s quintuple “Not Like Us” win, looking to pick up where he left off. It would be his first AOTY win after five nominations — for each of his Interscope studio albums and the Black Panther soundtrack — in this category.
Will Win: GNX
Should Win: Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Song of the Year
“Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga
“Anxiety,” Doechii
“APT.,” Rosé featuring Bruno Mars
“DtMF,” Bad Bunny
“Golden [From KPop Demon Hunters],” HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami
“Luther,” Kendrick Lamar featuring SZA
“Manchild,” Sabrina Carpenter
“Wildflower,” Billie Eilish
Fourteen of Bruno Mars’s last 15 nominations resulted in a win. He’s going home with something. But he seems likely to lose the same award that also eluded him last year, when he was nominated with Lady Gaga. Song of the Year is a writer’s category and his and Blackpink star Rosé’s rework of Tony Basil’s “Mickey” isn’t that interested in its lyrics. It’s a tougher sell arguing for it here than in Record of the Year, a more producer-centric reward. That’s where the soul of this locomotive collaboration lies. But in both categories Mars sits alongside tentpole singles from the biggest albums of the year. The Doechii and Kendrick singles deserve spots for a showily manicured verboseness that doesn’t tug too far away from the structure of a classic hit record. Sabrina Carpenter drove trolls insane across the political spectrum with “Manchild,” but the Billie Eilish single, which touts a renewed interest in bubbly pure pop music after years of pointed introversion, is probably our champion. A more fun outcome would be a win for the title track from the Bad Bunny album, a wistful snapshot of the relatable ache of grief bumrushing a party.
Will Win: “Wildflower”
Should Win: “DtMF”
Best New Artist
Olivia Dean
Katseye
The Marias
Addison Rae
Sombr
Leon Thomas
Alex Warren
Lola Young
Figuring out the logic of any Best New Artist class will blow your mind, as people who’ve been around for ten years end up rubbing elbows with debut-album and press-cycle newcomers. This group is a blast, though it also reflects a nagging run on frowny male adult contemporary kinda-rock. Katseye, the Dream Academy graduate sextet currently zooming through the stages of global girl group domination, should win, as should TikTok success story Addison Rae, and so should the Marias if the indie-pop band could manage to get in having been active since the fitfully droll Sombr was 10 years old. But the calculatingly chipper Alex Warren is present, and his triple-platinum “Ordinary” dominated enough of 2025 that we began to speak of “dethroning” him like errant royalty.
This category has straightened out considerably over the last few years after ages of choices that could prove instantly hilarious (Fun. over Frank Ocean) or boldly left-field (the brilliant Esperanza Spalding over the reigning Justin Bieber). So it’s possible that this goes to Britain’s newest star Olivia Dean, whose hard work touring the hushed and smoldering The Art of Loving and defending fans against predatory sky-high ticket resale prices is paying off in the global ascent of the lilting “Man I Need.” But the only parties being recognized in other categories this year are Katseye, the plucky U.K. singer Lola Young, and 32-year-old actor and R&B sensation Leon Thomas, a six-time nominee this year whose sophomore effort Mutt stews in the Album of the Year pot. Previous Best New Artist nominees in a similar top honors windfall include Chappell Roan and Olivia Rodrigo, who didn’t nab AOTY but did hit here.
Will Win: Leon Thomas
Should Win: Katseye
Producer of the Year, Non-classical
Dan Auerbach
Cirkut
Dijon
Blake Mills
Sounwave
Canadian auteur Cirkut being nominated here raises the question of whether a Gaga sweep is in the cards; he worked on Mayhem. This category is a log jam for the widely influential acoustic and electric R&B approach of Dijon Duenas, who’s here for his work on Justin Bieber’s immense Swag and for his exemplary solo album Baby. Blake Mills, a routine engineer for plush indie-rock and folk albums, and the Black Keys’ Dan Auerbach, who is turning out to be a more prolific producer than recording artist, will all need to make room for Compton’s Sounwave. The Kendrick collaborator might win on the duo’s sixth trip to Album of the Year and cascade across the other general and genre categories where the album is represented.
Will Win: Sounwave
Should Win: Dijon
Songwriter of the Year, Non-classical
Amy Allen
Edgar Barrera
Jessie Jo Dillon
Tobias Jesso Jr.
Laura Veltz
Tobias Jesso Jr.’s nomination in a songwriter category (with Dijon in a producer space) makes you wonder whether Justin Bieber’s Swag will be the belle of the ball this year. The co-writer for Bieber, Haim, Olivia Dean, Bon Iver, Miley Cyrus, and FKA twigs is resurgent, even releasing his first solo album in a decade last fall. But this award, which was inaugurated in 2023 with a Jesso win, circles the same handful of writers, and country scribes like Jessie Jo Dillon, pop bards like Amy Allen, and reggaeton men-at-arms like Edgar Barrera are just as up next. Allen worked on the last two Sabrina Carpenter albums and won last year for 2024’s Short n’ Sweet — 2025’s successful Man’s Best Friend will likely produce a similar outcome.
Will Win: Amy Allen
Should Win: Tobias Jesso Jr.
Best Pop Solo Performance
“Daisies,” Justin Bieber
“Manchild,” Sabrina Carpenter
“Disease,” Lady Gaga
“The Subway,” Chappell Roan
“Messy,” Lola Young
“Daisies” typifies the childlike simplicity that the best Justin Bieber songs angle for, while Lola Young’s “Messy” bristles with stress beyond its years. But this category’s for singing ass singers, which is why the shoutier but inferior Gaga single “Disease” is here. This award probably goes to Sabrina Carpenter, whose smirking, cooing, crooning “Manchild” performance swerves coolly through a few other contenders’ lanes. There’s no way Carpenter — a singer who is conversant in the folk and rock traditions that the Bieber and Chappell Roan singles explore but also the self-effacing, lived-in grit of a Lola — gets shut out this year, right?
Will Win: “Manchild”
Should Win: “Daisies”
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
“Defying Gravity,” Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande
“Golden [From KPop Demon Hunters],” HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami
“Gabriela,” Katseye
“APT.,” Rosé, Bruno Mars
“30 for 30,” SZA With Kendrick Lamar
It makes the most sense for someone with the sky-high Grammy success ratio of a Bruno Mars and a smash collab like “APT.” to succeed in a category like this one, which Mars previously won for “Uptown Funk” and “Die With a Smile.” But the cartoon K-pop group Huntr/x was nothing to play with last year. And SZA has accrued enough of these to make you wonder why more hip-hop and R&B songs aren’t talking shit like her and Kendrick Lamar’s “Throw Some D’s” interpolation “30 for 30.”
Will Win: “APT.”
Should Win: “30 for 30”
Best Pop Vocal Album
Swag, Justin Bieber
Man’s Best Friend, Sabrina Carpenter
Something Beautiful, Miley Cyrus
Mayhem, Lady Gaga
I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2), Teddy Swims
Teddy Swims did so well on the Billboard Hot 100 that the chart reworked its rules to prevent situations like the years-long reign of 2023’s somehow still sort of omnipresent “Lose Control.” He’s nominated here for the sequel to the album that spawned his diamond-certified single, which was never nominated; it’s probably not enough to box with the more established heavy hitters who’ve avoided other genre categories to campaign for this award. Gaga’s Mayhem was likely a lock for the dance album category but it has a tougher fight here alongside Miley Cyrus and Sabrina Carpenter records whose quality hinged on their colorful vocal delivery; Bieber’s intensive R&B exploration Swag skips that field entirely to joust with this lot. Competition is steep but Sabrina’s album made the biggest splash of the group, and here in Taylor Swift and Adele territory that’s prime currency.
Will Win: Man’s Best Friend
Should Win: Man’s Best Friend
Best Dance/Electronic Recording
“No Cap,” Disclosure & Anderson .Paak
“Victory Lap,” Fred Again.., Skepta, & PlaqueBoyMax
“Space Invader,” Kaytranada
“Voltage,” Skrillex
“End of Summer,” Tame Impala
Dance-pop singles getting funneled into a separate category (coincidentally the year after Beyoncé won this award, a running theme with this ceremony in the 2020s) ought to have been license for this one to skew very heady. This pack is more interested in electronic grooves as a means of exploration than pop hits that use the beat to rocket us to a chorus, but the pool remains rather mainstream nevertheless. The lost 2010s Skrillex single “Voltage” takes the cake for not giving a shit about any of these dichotomies.
Will Win: “Voltage”
Should Win: “Voltage”
Best Dance Pop Recording
“Bluest Flame,” Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco
“Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga
“Midnight Sun,” Zara Larsson
“Just Keep Watching (From F1 the Movie),” Tate McRae
“Illegal,” PinkPantheress
U.K. singer-producer PinkPantheress’s bubbly “Illegal” felt inescapable last year but Lady Gaga’s thumping return to form “Abracadabra” is the kind of single this relatively new addition to the Grammy repertoire — which has so far awarded Kylie Minogue’s “Padam Padam” and Charli xcx’s “Von Dutch” — got peeled off from the main Best Dance/Electronic Recording running to celebrate.
Will Win: “Abracadabra”
Should Win: “Illegal”
Best Dance/Electronic Album
Eusexua, FKA Twigs
Ten Days, Fred Again.
Fancy That, PinkPantheress
Inhale / Exhale, Rüfüs Du Sol
F*** U Skrillex You Think Ur Andy Warhol But Ur Not!! , Skrillex
This category, which was born in the mid-aughts, has been admirably resistant to heterodox big-ticket choices in the 2020s. And with Gaga eschewing it on a cycle of relatively unanimous acclaim, it gets to be a showdown between very different concepts of the electronic album: FKA Twigs’s museum pieces, PinkPantheress’s nostalgic club food, and Skrillex’s self-effacing mixtape high jinks all have a shot at glory. But Pantheress hits a few different points: mass recognition, production smarts, two singles (“Illegal,” “Stateside”) making waves in the U.S. and U.K., and a knack for making the music ponder its own history — like Beyoncé’s Renaissance, the 2023 winner.
Will Win: Fancy That
Should Win: Fancy That
Best Remixed Recording
“Abracadabra (Gesaffelstein Remix),” Gesaffelstein, remixer (Lady Gaga, Gesaffelstein)
“Don’t Forget About Us,” Kaytranada, remixer (Mariah Carey & Kaytranada)
“Dreams a Dream (Ron Trent Remix),” Ron Trent, remixer (Soul II Soul)
“Galvanize,” Chris Lake, remixer (The Chemical Brothers & Chris Lake)
“Golden (David Guetta REM/X),” David Guetta, remixer (HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami)
The David Guetta REM/X of HUNTR/X’s KPop Demon Hunters calling card “Golden” frustratingly makes the soaring track some 10 percent more appealing by pushing brasher synths over the drum pattern, which was kinda tilting toward Rihanna’s “S.O.S.” But reworks of archival jams by Mariah Carey and UK dance music collective Soul II Soul from Montreal maestro Kaytranada and Chicago house vet Ron Trent here simmer.
Will Win: “Golden (David Guetta REM/X)”
Should Win: “Dreams a Dream (Ron Trent Remix)”
Best Rock Performance
“U Should Not Be Doing That,” Amyl and the Sniffers
“The Emptiness Machine,” Linkin Park
“Never Enough,” Turnstile
“Mirtazapine,” Hayley Williams
“Changes (Live From Villa Park) Back to the Beginning,” Yungblud
The Linkin Park revival stopped at nothing to reconnect the band with its calling of filling outdoor arenas with anguished shrieks and record scratches. Lead single “The Emptiness Machine” was a legitimate from-relatively-nowhere rock-chart smash, the size and immediacy of which was reminiscent of the aughts. A Linkin Park win — a safe choice when you could go with the gruff post-Pretenders groove of the Sniffers song — is technically a tangy development for this category whose capacity for noise doesn’t skew harsher than Foo Fighters. It’s tight that Baltimore hardcore act Turnstile also graduated to appearing in these categories; they deserve to take something home. But they left empty-handed after multiple nominations in 2023. The Grammys love the cred of gesturing to more interesting music than what ultimately flies.
Will Win: “The Emptiness Machine”
Should Win: “U Should Not Be Doing That”
Best Metal Performance
“Night Terror,” Dream Theater
“Lachryma,” Ghost
“Emergence,” Sleep Token
“Soft Spine,” Spiritbox
“Birds,” Turnstile
The Spiritbox and Dream Theater songs deserve gold stars in this list of nominees, which only begins to scratch the surface of last year’s compelling metal performances and contains one reasonably misfiled hardcore jam. Masked London butt-metal quartet Sleep Token even being listed for their suitably drippy “Emergence” should put you on notice that the logic guiding this decision might rankle extreme music fans. Turnstile’s “Birds” being wedged here next to it is an argument for even one trophy that specifically acknowledges punk rock.
Will Win: “Emergence”
Should Win: “Soft Spine”
Best Rock Song
“As Alive As You Need Me to Be,” Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, songwriters (Nine Inch Nails)
“Caramel,” Vessel1 & Vessel2, songwriters (Sleep Token)
“Glum,” Daniel James & Hayley Williams, songwriters (Hayley Williams)
“Never Enough,” Daniel Fang, Franz Lyons, Pat McCrory, Meg Mills & Brendan Yates, songwriters (Turnstile)
“Zombie,” Dominic Harrison & Matt Schwartz, songwriters (Yungblud)
No matter how cool the list of nominees for Best Rock Song gets, the award goes somewhere buttoned up and stately. Ozzy Osbourne and Queens of the Stone Age have been seen in here, but nothing that hard ever takes the gold. It’s great to see Trent Reznor recognized for offering the world a reason to care about Jared Leto’s Tron: Ares and to see Turnstile’s work pay off handsomely. But Best Rock Song history suggests the gold’s going to Hayley Williams — who, to be fair, has put in the work — if we don’t get a Sting-beating-Metallica’s-Enter-Sandman level moment of mayhem with Yungblud.
Will Win: “Glum”
Should Win: “As Alive As You Need Me to Be”
Best Rock Album
Private Music, Deftones
I Quit, Haim
From Zero, Linkin Park
Never Enough, Turnstile
Idols, Yungblud
There is no better argument that we need more heavy music categories than ’90s and aughts metal tour vets Linkin Park and Deftones vying for the same accolade as the bleating Yungblud and pop-rock sister act Haim. This could get strange, with punk, metal, pop, and rock factions tugging in multiple directions. Deftones deserve to win for a great album and multimedia resurgence. But Yungblud has collected co-signs from elders like Aerosmith’s Steven Tyler and the late Ozzy Osbourne, and this category has delivered Greta Van Fleet a Grammy, so maybe brace for something like that as well.
Will Win: Private Music
Should Win: Private Music
Best Alternative Music Performance
“Everything Is Peaceful Love,” Bon Iver
“Alone,” The Cure
“Seein’ Stars,” Turnstile
“Mangetout,” Wet Leg
“Parachute,”Hayley Williams
The majestic opener from the Cure’s Songs of a Lost World is practically bursting with hooks and feelings and offered the first signal that the band was gunning for the glory of the ’80s last year. But the meaning of “alternative” has shifted a few times since 1989’s Disintegration, and unfortunately you can’t count on a goth overlord’s glistening return to form ruling this space anymore. Bon Iver’s lovefest might edge out the downcast new wave king.
Will Win: “Everything Is Peaceful Love”
Should Win: “Alone”
Best Alternative Music Album
Sable, Fable, Bon Iver
Songs of a Lost World, The Cure
Don’t Tap the Glass, Tyler, the Creator
Moisturizer, Wet Leg
Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party, Hayley Williams
The only two rap entities ever to contend for this award — which has gone to Nirvana, Radiohead, and the White Stripes — prior to Tyler, the Creator’s nomination are Gnarls Barkley and the Beastie Boys, whose St. Elsewhere and Hello Nasty took it home in their respective years. But wins skew toward festival indie acts now and that likely spells trouble for Tyler’s experimental Don’t Tap the Glass, which could have also been submitted in the electronic and R&B categories. The Cure smokes everything here, but the soulful Bon Iver dad-rock album is the sound that fits this category’s current concept of its genre.
Will Win: Sable, Fable
Should Win: Songs of a Lost World
Best R&B Performance
“Yukon,” Justin Bieber
“It Depends,” Chris Brown Featuring Bryson Tiller
“Folded,” Kehlani
“Mutt (Live From NPR’s Tiny Desk),” Leon Thomas
“Heart of a Woman,” Summer Walker
Since its revival in 2012, this category has tried to spotlight gobstopping vocals outside of the A-list sphere. Singers’ singers like Jazmine Sullivan, Muni Long, and Coco Jones have beat Justin Bieber, SZA, and Chris Brown here. Leon Thomas is not a household name, but everyone who hears “Mutt” recognizes the spirit of the genre in it. In a space where it doesn’t necessarily curry favor for Kehlani and Chris Brown that they had two of 2025’s biggest R&B songs in “Folded” and “It Depends,” Thomas could tiptoe past the two to victory. (But it is intriguing that the former child actor wouldn’t include his ubiquitous Chris Brown “Mutt” remix.)
Will Win: “Mutt (Live From NPR’s Tiny Desk)”
Should Win: “Folded”
Best Traditional R&B Performance
“Here We Are,” Durand Bernarr
“Uptown, ”Lalah Hathaway
“Love You Too,” Ledisi
“Crybaby,” SZA
“Vibes Don’t Lie,” Leon Thomas
It’s beyond time for the Grammys to deliver a second award to incomparable 16-time nominee Ledisi, but that’s unfortunately unlikely to happen here. For her many appearances in general fields, SZA’s wins are mainly situated in R&B genre categories. Lana’s “Crybaby” skated exquisitely around her register in tribute to early Motown breakup ballads, so, barring the wild Leon Thomas sweep, SZA is the force to be reckoned with here.
Will Win: “Crybaby”
Should Win: “Crybaby”
Best R&B Song
“Folded,” Kehlani
“It Depends,” Chris Brown ft. Bryson Tiller
“Heart of a Woman,” Summer Walker
“Overqualified,” Durand Bernarr
“Yes It Is,” Leon Thomas
Free from any qualifiers suggesting a subgenre, this category is often anyone’s guess, just as likely to go to a grown-and-sexy music giant like Maxwell as to gauzy SZA singles and sedate Robert Glasper jams. The two top 40 meteors in contention were inescapable last summer and fall; if “Folded,” a big enough hit to generate Brandy and Toni Braxton remixes, doesn’t break the Kehlani Grammy drought, will anything?
Will Win: “Folded”
Should Win: “Folded”
Best Progressive R&B Album
Bloom, Durand Bernarr
Adjust Brightness, Bilal
Love On Digital, Destin Conrad
Access All Areas, FLO
Come As You Are, Terrace Martin & Kenyon Dixon
The dazzling, psychedelic return of Soulquarian luminary Bilal deserves more than just a nod for Best Progressive R&B Album. But the win here tends to go to artists on major labels, last year’s historic NxWorries and AverySunshine indie-artist tie notwithstanding. The great and often nominated Terrace Martin and the talented, Erykah Badu–approved Durand Bernarr might take a back seat to the sleek retrofuturist dance-floor and bedroom jams of UK trio FLO.
Will Win: Access All Areas
Should Win: Adjust Brightness
Best R&B Album
Beloved, Giveon
Why Not More?, Coco Jones
The Crown, Ledisi
Escape Room, Teyana Taylor
Mutt, Leon Thomas
A win for Teyana Taylor’s illuminating-if-skit-overloaded divorce chronicle Escape Room would inch us ever closer to a Harlem EGOT. But this was a breakout year for Victorious’s Leon Thomas, who nudged a song or two into department store rotation after moonlighting in music for ages.
Will Win: Mutt
Should Win: Escape Room
Best Rap Performance
“Outside,” Cardi B
“Chains & Whips,” Clipse, Pusha T & Malice featuring Kendrick Lamar & Pharrell Williams
“Anxiety,” Doechii
“TV Off,” Kendrick Lamar featuring Lefty Gunplay
“Darling, I,” Tyler, the Creator featuring Teezo Touchdown
There isn’t a performance here that isn’t incredible; Cardi B’s brusque “Outside” sitting next to Doechii’s breathtakingly technical and personal “Anxiety” indicates mainstream rap isn’t in as bad of a place as some like to groan that it is. But Kendrick’s “TV Off” is a clinic that fostered weeks of shouted catchphrases and memes — “It’s not enough!,” “MUSTAAARD!” — and took on a life the others didn’t quite enjoy. He probably collects his third Best Rap Performance win in four years here.
Will Win: “TV Off”
Should Win: “Anxiety”
Best Melodic Rap Performance
“Proud of Me,” Fridayy Featuring Meek Mill
“Wholeheartedly,” JID Featuring Ty Dolla $ign & 6Lack
“Luther,” Kendrick Lamar With SZA
“WeMaj,” Terrace Martin & Kenyon Dixon Featuring Rapsody
“Somebody Loves Me,” Partynextdoor & Drake
Kendrick and SZA’s single beat Taylor Swift and Alex Warren smashes for the longest-running “Hot 100” No. 1 of 2025, and will likely cruise comfortably past frenemies Meek Mill and Drake to victory here (although North Carolina’s cool, consistent Rapsody won this award last year over hits from Beyoncé, Future, and the Weeknd). Kendrick’s track record is loud: Anytime his song or album has faced one of Rapsody’s at the Grammys — like last year in Best Rap Song or in Best Rap Song and Album in 2018 — he has gone home with the gold.
Will Win: “Luther”
Should Win: “Luther”
Best Rap Song
“Anxiety,” Doechii
“The Birds Don’t Sing,” Clipse, Pusha T & Malice featuring John Legend & Voices of Fire
“Sticky,” Tyler, the Creator
“TGIF,” GloRilla
“TV Off,” Kendrick Lamar
Pusha T and Malice’s gutting ode to their late parents opened a new chapter for the duo, with a song from the coke-rap kings that’s clean and soulful enough to feasibly be played near the new American pope. But Doechii’s performance is positively arresting, as is Kendrick’s “TV Off,” and “Sticky,” a showcase for Tyler, the Creator’s interdenominational skills and interests. GloRilla’s club banger “TGIF” deserves more attention, too. But these categories devour a strong showing from elder statesmen.
Will Win: “The Birds Don’t Sing”
Should Win: “The Birds Don’t Sing”
Best Rap Album
Let God Sort Em Out, Clipse
Glorious, GloRilla
God Does Like Ugly, JID
GNX, Kendrick Lamar
Chromakopia, Tyler, the Creator
It would be wonderful for the edifying comeback story of Virginia brother duo Clipse to include a Best Rap Album win, but this category is crowded. The better and more ambitious of the two Tyler, the Creator albums is here; the man who swept any rap category that had “Not Like Us” in it last year is back. Fan and critical consensus touted Kendrick Lamar’s triumphant-if-too-breezy GNX as one of 2024’s best and most successful rap albums. And this category has not strayed far from that perspective since catching hell for the only time it neglected to award Lamar, back when Macklemore apologized for edging out good kid m.A.A.d. City. It would seem unlikely that anything particularly zesty happens here.
Will Win: GNX
Should Win: Chromakopia
Best Country Solo Performance
“Nose on the Grindstone,” Tyler Childers
“Good News,” Shaboozey
“Bad As I Used to Be” (from F1 the Movie), Chris Stapleton
“I Never Lie,” Zach Top
“Somewhere Over Laredo,” Lainey Wilson
“Grindstone,” an Appalachian miner’s lament, is an instant classic, as is the wistful, Wizard of Oz saluting “Laredo.” Kentucky country-rocker Tyler Childers has never won a Grammy and Chris Stapleton has lost this particular category only once thus far, for five wins. But the Brad Pitt car flick tie-in jam is not one of his classics, and didn’t notch impact on par with “Laredo,” Louisiana live wire Lainey Wilson’s airplane reminiscence and Billboard Country Airplay chart topper that also got “Hot 100” traction.
Will Win: “Somewhere Over Laredo”
Should Win: “Nose on the Grindstone”
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
“A Song to Sing,” Miranda Lambert And Chris Stapleton
“Trailblazer,” Reba McEntire, Miranda Lambert, Lainey Wilson
“Love Me Like You Used to Do,” Margo Price & Tyler Childers
“Amen, ”Shaboozey & Jelly Roll
“Honky Tonk Hall of Fame,” George Strait, Chris Stapleton
Unlike performance-based categories in rap, metal, and pop, this country version isn’t always inclined to go to a person who belted it out the hardest or displayed the greatest technical depth. It is the rare country Grammy Chris Stapleton has never won. This trophy’s friendly to a hit, and Shaboozey and Jelly Roll had one.
Will Win: “Amen”
Should Win: “A Song to Sing”
Best Country Song
“Bitin’ List,” Tyler Childers
“Good News,” Shaboozey
“I Never Lie,” Zach Top
“Somewhere Over Laredo,” Lainey Wilson
“A Song to Sing,” Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton
There are better songs onTyler Childers’s molting, yearning Snipe Hunter to put up than the righteously cantankerous “Bitin’ List.” But it’s nice to see that here alongside Lainey Wilson’s brilliant “Somewhere Over Laredo” and Shaboozey’s rousing “Good News” in the group of songs trying to brook the tidal wave of 31-time nominee and somehow only three-time winner Miranda Lambert. She’s back with a boost from (the unsurprisingly considerably more Grammy-winning) Chris Stapleton.
Will Win: “A Song to Sing”
Should Win: “Somewhere Over Laredo”
Best Contemporary Country Album
Patterns, Kelsea Ballerini
Snipe Hunter, Tyler Childers
Evangeline vs. the Machine, Eric Church
Beautifully Broken, Jelly Roll
Postcards From Texas, Miranda Lambert
For 2026, Best Contemporary Country Album no longer has authority over traditional artists thanks to a dedicated spinoff category just for them. It’s a significant change because this category, which Taylor Swift has lost more than won, has largely succeeded in freezing out aggressive pop plays since the era of Shania Twain, Faith Hill, and the Chicks. Then last year, Post Malone got nominated, and Beyoncé won, and suddenly a separate space manifests to honor the purity of the form. This year, the practice probably weeds out people who might have gotten the nod over Jelly Roll, who has enjoyed the kind of commercial gravitas these awards pretend they ignore.
Will Win: Beautifully Broken
Should Win: Snipe Hunter
Best Traditional Country Album
Dollar a Day, Charley Crockett
American Romance, Lukas Nelson
Oh What a Beautiful World, Willie Nelson
Hard Headed Woman, Margo Price
Ain’t in It for My Health, Zach Top
The ever-recording and/or on-tour Nelson family is so prolific that Willie successfully pitched two albums to two categories, including this new one where he competes against his son Lukas. They’re joined in the running for the first-ever Best Traditional Country Album by a fierce lineup: 28-year-old neo-trad crooner Zach Top pulses with time-displaced Alan Jackson energy; the Margo Price album is a highlight in the Illinois troubadour’s stellar catalog. A perfect world recognizes Charley Crockett has a voice and pen for the ages. But the Recording Academy is probably itching to hand this statement category’s first statue to a patriarch of the genre.
Will Win: Oh What a Beautiful World
Should Win: Dollar a Day
Best Americana Album
Big Money, Jon Batiste
Bloom, Larkin Poe
Last Leaf on the Tree, Willie Nelson
So Long Little Miss Sunshine, Molly Tuttle
Middle, Jesse Welles
Prying folk off the Americana category in the early 2010s served the purpose of giving shine to acoustic solo performances that might’ve gotten steamrolled in this space, one that is often full of artists themselves under threat of being overshadowed by the commercial juggernauts in the contemporary country airspace. (Is Willie Nelson’s fiddle friendly cover of Neil Young’s “Are You Ready for the Country” not exemplifying the genre in its title?) The crunchy Larkin Poe album embodies the musical slipperiness of Americana as an ideal, a carefree cruise through country, blues, rock, and soul; the Molly Tuttle album brims with the rustic zest of early Sheryl Crow. Both of them — as well as the alternating Bob Dylan and Tom Petty cosplay of Ozark crooner Jesse Welles’s Middle — must contend with a 92-year-old national treasure’s musing on mortality.
Will Win: Last Leaf on the Tree
Should Win: Bloom
Best Folk Album
What Did the Blackbird Say to the Crow, Rhiannon Giddens & Justin Robinson
Crown of Roses, Patty Griffin
Wild and Clear and Blue, I’m With Her
Foxes in the Snow, Jason Isbell
Under the Powerlines (April 24 – September 24), Jesse Welles
Alabama guitarist and crooner Jason Isbell rarely loses a roots-related Grammy, but supergroup I’m with Her is three shoe-ins (Texas singer-songwriter and picker Sarah Jarosz with Sara Watkins and Aoife O’Donovan, formerly of Nickel Creek and Crooked Still, respectively) for the price of one. You can’t count folk vet Patti Griffin out in these situations just as you should slide a few chips onto the chaos option of an upset by the viral, mewling Welles. But Isbell runs the race on a stark and formidable solo album and a batting average of six wins for eight nods (prior to this year’s three more). That being said, what if we let the just-as-great but more-nominated and less-awarded Rhiannon Giddens have one for her tireless commitment to timeless folk songs and forms?
Will Win: Foxes in the Snow
Should Win: What Did the Blackbird Say to the Crow
Best Latin Pop Album
Cosa Nuestra, Rauw Alejandro
Bogotá (Deluxe), Andrés Cepeda
Tropicoqueta, Karol G
Cancionera, Natalia Lafourcade
¿Y ahora qué?, Alejandro Sanz
This catchall category could stand to get cleaved in two. Jazzy folk (Mexican singer-guitarist Natasha Lafourcade’s Cancionera), stately pop-rock (former Poligamia frontman Andrés Cepeda’s Bogotá), and sonically restless romantic fare (Latin Grammy fixture Alejandro Sanz) are competing against crossover stars who, to be fair, do not tend to rule the space. Rauw, a 33-year-old San Jaun romantic, had a breakthrough after a breakup, skipping coolly across genres and balancing electronic and acoustic arrangements following a split with Rosalia; even in polar vortex hell, Karol G’s Tropicoqueta goes over like a glass of concentrated essence of summer. But Sanz is a titan in here, where a fifth win would nudge him past the legendary Jose Feliciano as most awarded.
Will Win: ¿Y ahora qué?
Should Win: Tropicoqueta
Best Música Urbana Album
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, Bad Bunny
Mixteip, J Balvin
FERXXO VOL X: Sagrado, Feid
NAIKI, Nicki Nicole
EUB DELUXE, Trueno
SINFÓNICO (En Vivo), Yandel
Sinfónico (En Vivo), the orchestral live album from seminal reggaetonero Yandel, is a sprawling, beefy headphone record. But the releases from Trueno and Nicki Nicole, rapper/singer-songwriters from Argentina, excel at sizzling brevity. In the middle of this spectrum, a trio of mid-career stylistic chameleons and sometime collaborators — Feid, J Balvin, and Bad Bunny — carefully map out intersecting tastes. But FOToS took up the most oxygen last year; its author, a two-time winner here, certainly will earn his third.
Will Win: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Should Win: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Best Global Music Performance
“EoO,” Bad Bunny
“Cantando en el Camino,” Ciro Hurtado
“JERUSALEMA,” Angélique Kidjo
“Inmigrante Y Que?,” Yeisy Rojas
“Shrini’s Dream (Live),” Shakti
“Daybreak,” Anoushka Shankar Featuring Alam Khan & Sarathy Korwar
Having a Bad Bunny single with bleating synths hold court with an intergenerational convention of stringed-instrument specialists goes to show how disjointed and squished together this 2022 addition to the ceremony tends to be. And that’s even after the creation in 2024 of a separate award for the African artists who were consistently upstaged in this category. Benito has name recognition and representation in general field categories going for him, but it’s been too long since Beninese singer and activist Angélique Kidjo, a five-time winner in 16 nominations so far, collected a fresh Grammy. But this is a performance category that skews heavily toward tactile players, and Indian sitar vet Anoushka Shanka is currently 0-14 here. It’s her night, right?
Will Win: “Daybreak”
Should Win: “JERUSALEMA”
Best African Music Performance
“Love,” Burna Boy
“With You,” Davido Featuring Omah Lay
“Hope & Love,” Eddy Kenzo & Mehran Matin
“Gimme Dat,” Ayra Starr Featuring Wizkid
“Push 2 Start,” Tyla
South African singer Tyla’s wispy but commanding single was gorgeous enough to lure dancehall legend Sean Paul away from a by turns delightfully and head-scratchingly odd spate of recent collaborations: Sting, Gwen Stefani, Will Smith. And the Ayra Starr and Wizkid team-up is in alluring conversation with its source material about diasporic guitar music, as an afrobeats love song teased out of a lick from a 2000s Wyclef Jean and Mary J. Blige duet. But it’s time to hand 11-time nominee Burna Boy a second statue.
Will Win: “Love”
Should Win: “Love”
Best Global Music Album
Sounds of Kumbha, Siddhant Bhatia
No Sign of Weakness, Burna Boy
Eclairer le monde, Light the World, Youssou N’Dour
Mind Explosion (50th Anniversary Tour Live), Shakti
Chapter III: We Return to Light, Anoushka Shankar Featuring Alam Khan & Sarathy Korwar
Caetano e Bethânia Ao Vivo, Caetano Veloso and Maria Bethânia
This award — adapted in 2020 from the tackily named “world music” — strains to cover everyone from African-pop fixtures to jazz-rock staples like guitarist John McLaughlin or Grateful Dead drummer Mickey Hart, its inaugural winner in 1992. Repeat nominee and 2021 winner Burna Boy seems a no-brainer here, but No Sign of Weakness didn’t match the impact of 2021’s Twice As Tall. A win for Brazilian singer-songwriter siblings Maria Bethânia and Caetano Veloso, the latter of whom has circled this trophy a few times since 2001, would be nice, and sitar vet Anoushka Shankar has yet to win a Grammy for over a dozen nominations. But McLaughlin’s revived fusion act Shakti took the trophy in 2024 and lost no steam on their majestic live album.
Will Win: Mind Explosion (50th Anniversary Tour Live)
Should Win: Chapter III: We Return to Light
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