Fans of President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump have made “Melania” a breakout hit by box office standards.
The documentary is on track to earn about $7 million in its opening weekend, with ticket sales reflecting a familiar red/blue divide in America.
“Melania” is projected to be the best-performing documentary of its kind in a decade, a takeaway that the first lady trumpeted in a post on X.
Then again, “Melania” also received a marketing rollout unlike any other documentary, complete with ads on buses and commemorative popcorn tins at theaters.
By financial standards, the film is not a winner, at least not yet. The company that financed it, Amazon MGM Studios, still has a long way to go to break even.
On Sunday, Kevin Wilson, the head of domestic theatrical distribution for the studio, said, “we are confident in the long-term value this rollout will deliver to customers both in theaters, and for years to come on Prime Video.”
Amazon paid $40 million for the rights to “Melania” and committed another $35 million for marketing — eye-poppingly high sums for a documentary. The Hollywood Reporter called it the “most expensive” such film in history.
The exorbitant spending led Amazon’s industry rivals to speculate that the studio was trying to curry favor with the Trump administration by paying the first lady millions of dollars.
According to the Wall Street Journal, “the First Lady’s cut is more than 70% of the $40 million,” or at least $28 million.
“The Daily Show” host Desi Lydic phrased it as a question on premiere night: “Why would Jeff Bezos, a billionaire who has tons of business with the government, run by a famously corrupt president known for loving bribes, overpay for a Melania documentary?”
“Hmmm,” Lydic said, pretending to be stumped.
Amazon asserted that “we licensed the film for one reason and one reason only — because we think customers are going to love it.”
Theatergoers said they did love it. The documentary received an A grade through CinemaScore, an industry-standard survey of theater patrons.
The A grade was in stark contrast to the critical consensus. Professional reviewers — who weren’t given a chance to screen the film in advance — have panned “Melania” as a vapid infomercial. Rotten Tomatoes, which aggregates film reviews, found only 11% positive reviews as of Sunday morning.
“Melania” is not really a documentary at all, but rather a hagiographic “reality TV” special that “preaches to the faithful,” The Bulwark culture editor Sonny Bunch wrote.
Bunch called it “fascinating to see so pure and naked an instrument of graft and propaganda deployed to great effect on an audience happy to lap it up.”
Amazon MGM rightly calculated that the film would attract audiences across the country, particularly in Republican strongholds.
Industry sources said the top-performing markets for “Melania” included Dallas, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta, and West Palm Beach.
Opinions about the film predictably broke along partisan lines. Trump critics shared screenshots of empty theaters in big liberal cites to mock “Melania” while Trump fans shared photos of group outings in conservative suburbs.
The film’s opening weekend performance exceeded the expectations of box office prognosticators, some of whom had forecast “Melania” to make just $2 to $5 million over the weekend.
The actual $7 million total puts the film on track at No. 3 overall for the weekend, behind the Sam Raimi-directed horror adventure “Send Help” and YouTube star Markiplier’s self-financed film “Iron Lung.”
Given that “Melania” won’t be in theaters for long, there is no way that Amazon will recoup its costs from the theatrical release.
But box office figures are not the only way to measure success, since “Melania” and three companion TV episodes are going to stream on Prime Video, and the studio can eventually recoup more of its spend via advertising and Prime signups.
A streaming premiere date has not yet been announced, but industry experts say most of the project’s overall audience will come on Prime Video.
“We’re very encouraged by the strong start and positive audience response, with early box office for ‘Melania’ exceeding our expectations,” Wilson said. “This momentum is an important first step in what we see as a long-tail lifecycle for both the film and the forthcoming docu-series, extending well beyond the theatrical window and into what we believe will be a significant run for both on our service.”
In any case, the suspicion about Amazon’s motives will linger long after the film leaves theaters.
A New York Times reporter asked President Trump about it at the premiere on Thursday in Washington, DC.
“Amazon paid $75 million to make and market this film,” reporter Shawn McCreesh said. “It’s an exorbitant fee. Many Americans think that this is maybe Jeff Bezos trying to get in good with you, and they would call it an act of corporate corruption.”
President Trump interrupted and asked, “Who are you with?” After criticizing The Times, he sidestepped the topic, saying, “I’m not involved. That was done with my wife.”
Over the weekend, he played movie promoter on Truth Social, urging people to “check it out” and linking to Amazon’s website for the film.
On Sunday morning, the president linked to a news story about the ticket sales and wrote, “BLOCKBUSTER!”
