Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Utah Utes and the Arizona State Sun Devils.
This game sits right on the fault line between talent and frustration. Arizona State is 11–11 and 2–7 in Big 12 play, still searching for a clean identity night-to-night. Utah is 9–12 with a 1–7 league mark, and the pressure has started to sound like it lives in the walls. The spread being basically a coin flip is the whole story of the season for both teams. It’s a late slot, a loud gym, and a scoreboard that tends to move in chunks. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Utah Utes and the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Arizona State plays at 73.8 possessions per game and Utah sits at 72.9, which is a lot of trips for two defenses that haven’t held the line. Utah’s defense is at 1.117 points allowed per possession, and Arizona State’s sits at 1.085, so neither side has shown a reliable “drag it down” gear. Both offenses are functional, too, with Utah at 1.091 and Arizona State at 1.073, and that balance is exactly how totals get inflated without feeling like a trap. The raw points agree with the efficiency: Arizona State scores 79.2 and allows 80.1, while Utah scores 79.5 and allows 81.5. When both teams live in the high 70s and low 80s, the over is always one hot stretch away from cashing.
The headliners matter here because this is the kind of game where one true bucket-getter can bend the entire night. Terrence Brown (G) is a real national name, averaging 22.1 points per game and sitting seventh nationally in scoring, and Utah’s offense often feels like a referendum on whether he can turn contact into points. Don McHenry (G) adds a second scoring lane at 17.9 a night, which keeps defenses from selling out on Brown every possession. Keanu Dawes (F) is the clean “March glue” piece at 12.4 points and 8.9 rebounds, and that board rate is nationally relevant in its own right. Utah’s own math also tells on the roster shape: Brown, McHenry, Dawes, and Seydou Traore (F) combine for 77.9% of the scoring, which makes foul trouble and cold stretches feel twice as loud.
Arizona State has a different kind of star power, more table-setter than pure scorer. Maurice Odum (G) is at 17.2 points with 6.6 assists, a top-15 national assist rate that can turn a mediocre possession into a clean laydown. Massamba Diop (F) brings the interior efficiency at 61.2% from the field with two blocks per game, which is exactly the profile that punishes a defense that’s been soft at the rim. Anthony Johnson (G) gives Arizona State a needed second scorer at 13.6, and Noah Meeusen (F) flashed real rotation utility with sixteen against Arizona when Odum got into foul trouble.
Arizona State vs. Utah pick, best bet
Arizona State’s pressure is the loudest chaos lever, forcing opponents into a 16.3% turnover rate, and that’s how a road team steals six easy points without executing better. The flip side is Utah’s ball pressure is much lighter, with opponents at 12.4%, so Arizona State should get to its sets more often than it does against the league’s true disruptors. The other volatility lane is the glass, because both defenses invite second chances. Arizona State allows a 31.2% opponent offensive rebounding rate and Utah allows 30.7%, which is the kind of quiet math that keeps possessions alive and totals climbing. Utah’s other advantage is shotmaking from deep, sitting at 36.6% from three, and Arizona State’s defense has allowed opponents to take threes at a 40.3% attempt rate while hitting 35.4%. If Utah gets comfortable from the arc, Arizona State’s pressure won’t matter because it’ll be taking the ball out of the net.
So I’m playing the over, not the side, because the scoring supports stack in independent lanes. The market total is 161.5, and the pace baseline already justifies a high number. Arizona State’s free-throw pressure is heavy at a 0.403 FTA/FGA rate, and Utah isn’t far behind in foul-prone behavior either, with both teams sitting at 21.0% personal fouls per play. That combination creates free points without needing a shooting miracle, and both teams shoot above 73% at the line, so the late-game conversion risk is manageable. This sets up as a game where each side gets long stretches of competent offense, then steals a few possessions with pressure, boards, and whistles.
I’m riding over 161.5. Predicted score: Utah 84, Arizona State 81.
Best bet: Utah vs. Arizona State o161.5 total points (-110)
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