The Patriots are in Santa Clara preparing to play the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX and now is the time of the week when we turn the page from pomp and circumstance to real football.
New England is in the Super Bowl in its first season under head coach Mike Vrabel and will play second-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday. Although the Pats head coach is our Coach of the Year, Macdonald is a strong candidate as well after leading Seattle to the top seed in the NFC with a 14-3 regular-season record.
After getting a first-round bye, the Seahawks beat two division opponents, the Rams and 49ers, to reach Super Bowl LX as the top dog in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Seattle finished the regular season as the top-rated team in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA efficiency metric. The Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense and the No. 3 scoring offense, while also ranking second in special teams DVOA with explosive return units. As one would expect in the Super Bowl, Seattle is the most complete team that the Patriots have faced this season – they’re good in all three phases.
Before we dive deep into the Seahawks on both sides of the ball, the biggest unknown from this perspective is which version of the Patriots offense shows up for Super Bowl LX. The one that led the league in EPA during the regular season or an offense that has been through a gauntlet of top-10 defenses in three playoff games? In the playoffs, the Patriots are averaging just 18.0 PPG, down from second in the regular season (28.8 PPG). Maye led the NFL in regular-season pass EPA, total QBR, and passer rating, which is why he should be the MVP. However, the Pats QB is just 10th among 15 playoff quarterbacks in EPA during the postseason. Plus, Maye is also on the injury report with a right shoulder injury.
There’s a realistic path to victory where New England’s defense, which has been lights out, makes life difficult for Seahawks QB Sam Darnold. Darnold’s career renaissance has continued in Seattle, becoming only the second quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to back-to-back 14-win seasons (Tom Brady, 2003-04), and Darnold has done it with two different teams (Seattle, Minnesota). That said, Darnold was a modest 11th in pass EPA for a Seahawks offense that was 10th in DVOA. Those are respectable rankings, but Seattle doesn’t blow you away offensively under Shanahan tree coordinator, Klint Kubiak.
Although the Patriots defense shouldn’t be ignored in this matchup, the Super Bowl feels like it will come down to the Patriots offense re-gaining its form against arguably the best defense in football. Macdonald is a master play-caller who lulls you to sleep with sound structure in a four-down, zone-based nickel defense and then catches you napping with an excellent pressure package. For the Patriots to win their seventh title, Maye and OC Josh McDaniels need to be at their best.
Let’s preview the chess match in Super Bowl LX between the Patriots and Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday.
Offense Key: Take From the Rams Blueprint and Don’t Get Caught Sleeping On Seattle’s Pressure Schemes
The primary focus of Super Bowl week will likely be Maye and McDaniels squaring off against Macdonald’s juggernaut defense, a heavyweight matchup on the NFL’s biggest stage.
Defensively, Seattle ranks near the top of the league in nearly every metric: No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 1 in EPA, No. 1 in DVOA, No. 1 in third down defense, No. 4 in pressure rate, No. 5 in red zone defense, and No. 7 in yards allowed. Schematically, Macdonald wins with sound structure as a four-down linemen system that primarily plays zone coverages out of nickel packages (77% nickel, 2nd in NFL). The Seahawks play out of a two-high safety structure at the highest rate in the league (78.3%) and are eighth in zone coverage rate (79.6%). Despite basing out of light boxes, the Seahawks led the NFL in rush EPA allowed. Plus, Seattle also produced the lowest average target depth (6.6 yards) and the third-highest check-down rate (14.3%).
Seattle also has seven defensive linemen with 20-plus pressures this season: Leonard Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, and Jarran Reed. Along with excellent depth on the D-Line, Seahawks LB Ernest Jones quarterbacks the defense and makes plays on the ball (six INTs). Nickel-safety Nick Emanwori is in the Kyle Hamilton role as a hybrid box/slot defender who allows Seattle to hold up against the run with five defensive backs – he’s their chess piece that makes it all fit together. In the backend, CB Devon Witherspoon has the highest grade among corners in PFF’s rankings. He’s flanked by CB Riq Woolen, S Julian Love, S Coby Bryant, and third outside CB Josh Jobe.
Seattle’s defensive line will likely get plenty of hype during Super Bowl week, headlined by Lawrence, Murphy, and Williams. Lawrence typically lines up outside the right tackle but will flip sides with Nwosu, while Williams plays the three-technique (B-Gap), and Murphy is tough to move as their shaded nose tackle (1/2-tech). Along with being fourth in team pressure rate and first in rush EPA allowed, the Seahawks D-Line is third in run-stop win rate and seventh in pass-rush win rate. On this side of the ball, the game will likely come down to the Patriots O-Line against the Seahawks vaunted defensive line.
