It’s certainly possible that the Dolphins could decide to release Tua Tagovailoa in the months ahead, as has been widely speculated.
But if the Dolphins do move on from their former starting quarterback this offseason, the team’s preference would be to make every attempt to trade him, according to three sources with knowledge of the situation.
The Dolphins also have been giving consideration to keeping him, a source said. As of very recently, that had not been ruled out, though it’s certainly not considered the most likely scenario.
“I would be surprised if Tua was in Miami,” NFL Net’s Ian Rapoport told Jim Rome on Wednesday.
But if the Dolphins decide to move on, what became clear this week is their preference would be to try to trade him, the sources said.
The Dolphins – at this point – do not relish the idea of taking the big cap hit that would come with releasing him. They could decide in a few months to release him, but they’re not going to consider doing that before every other possible avenue is considered and exhausted.
Because the Dolphins already have guaranteed Tagovailoa’s $54 million salary for next season, a case could be made to keep him next season, either as the backup or in competition for the job. Miami has Quinn Ewers and is expected to add another quarterback through the draft or free agency or both.
Tagovailoa would have a $56.2 million cap if he’s on the team next season under terms of his current contract.
If Tagovailoa is still on the Dolphins’ roster on March 13 (the third day of the 2026 league year), $3 million of his 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Another $17 million would become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2027 league year.
But as overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald noted via email, the $3 million guarantee for 2027 shouldn’t drive the Dolphins’ decision — or motivate Miami to release him by March 13 — because it’s a negligible amount and would be offset when he signs with another team.
If the Dolphins move on from Tagovailoa this offseason, the Dolphins’ 2026 cap hit would be:
1). $99.2 million if he’s cut before June 1.
2.) $45.2 million if he’s traded before June 1. There would be no cap hit in 2027. So the total cap hit for trading Tagovailoa would be less than his $56.2 million hit if he’s on the team.
3). $67.4 million if he’s cut after June 1, with another $31.8 million on Miami’s 2027 cap. As Fitzgerald noted, Miami would receive a credit for any salary earned from another team in 2026.
4). $13.4 million if he’s traded after June 1, with $31.8 million then on Miami’s 2027 cap (which is the difference between the $45.2 million 2026 hit if he’s traded before June 1 and the $13.4 million 2026 hit if he’s traded after June 1).
There is no “post-June 1 trade designation” in the NFL, meaning Tagovailoa would actually need to be traded after June 1 in this scenario.
So the best scenario for Miami could be a trade, with before June 1 preferable if Miami wants to absorb the whole $45.2 million dead money cap hit in 2026 instead of 2027.
Finding a team to take Tagovailoa’s contract likely would be difficult unless Miami agrees to pay a significant part of his salary.
“I think they can trade him but they’ll have to eat a lot of the contract,” Rapoport told Jim Rome.
Miami could entice a team by offering a second day draft sweetener, but that would be painful for the Dolphins new regime, which places a premium on draft picks, as was reiterated by sources.
The good news for the Dolphins is this: If they agree to pay a large chunk of Tagovailoa’s $54 million salary this upcoming season to facilitate a trade, that money does not count on the Dolphins’ salary cap. And Miami could even emerge with a late-round draft pick in the deal.
New offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said Wednesday that “Tua absolutely can bounce back.”
Asked how he plans to revive Tagovailoa if he’s on the team, Slowik didn’t answer that specifically but said last year “was a difficult year. What jumped out to me was the grace he handled it with, the way he went about his daily routine.”
Tagovailoa, 27, led the NFL in passer rating in 2022 (at 105.5) and passing yards in 2023 (4,624) but was benched for the final three games last season after throwing 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions (with an 88.5 passer rating) over the first 14 games.
This story was originally published February 5, 2026 at 5:40 PM.
Barry Jackson
Miami Herald
Barry Jackson has written for the Miami Herald since 1986 and has written the Florida Sports Buzz column since 2002.
