It’s one of the most unlikely Super Bowls ever, according to preseason betting odds. Here’s how to make sense of Seattle Seahawks–New England Patriots.
Super Bowl Sunday is historically the single biggest betting day of the year, and the American Gaming Association expects $1.76 billion to be wagered on this year’s matchup between Seattle and New England. If you pull up a sportsbook website between now and kickoff, you also have roughly 1.76 billion different bets to consider (don’t check my math on that). Between the length of the national anthem and the result of the coin toss alone, you don’t even have to wait until kickoff before partaking in the action.
The Seahawks opened as 3.5-point favorites following their win against the Rams in the NFC championship, and the market subsequently bumped them up to –4.5. The market clearly views Seattle as the superior team, but that has not been a good omen in recent Super Bowl history. Since 2000, favorites of 4 or more points are 1-10 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The last four teams to be favored by at least 4 all failed to cover, and three of them lost outright (2017-18 Patriots, 2015-16 Panthers, 2012-13 49ers).
Sports Odds History has betting data on the Super Bowl participants dating back to 1970. From an odds perspective, this Super Bowl is the least likely in that whole span, as Seattle and New England entered the year at 60-to-1 and 80-to-1, respectively, to win the title.
The Patriots and Seahawks were both favored in all five of their combined playoff games, and yet their very existence in this game feels like a stunning upset.
After Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes represented the AFC in all but two Super Bowls from 2011 to 2025—and with the Eagles or 49ers representing the NFC in four of the last five—Sunday represents a considerable change of pace. Where are the league’s stars? Who even is the biggest star in this game?
I can’t remember the last time we had a Super Bowl where that question wasn’t fairly easy to answer. This era of uncertainty makes for not just a compelling narrative but also a fun matchup to break down. Let’s get into it.
(All lines referenced are from FanDuel as of Friday morning, unless otherwise noted.)
New England Offense vs. Seattle Defense
By now you’ve probably heard that the Patriots played a very easy schedule in the regular season. Indeed, the data shows that the Patriots faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the entire league when measured by defense-adjusted value over average. That schedule difficulty flipped immediately once the Patriots entered the AFC playoffs, where they faced the three best defenses in the conference. There’s now a massive gulf between New England’s regular-season and playoff offensive performances. The playoff sample is too small to draw meaningful conclusions from, but the difference is so stark that it does make you wonder where the true quality of the Patriots offense lies.
The same offense that averaged 36.5 yards per drive (fourth best) in the regular season cratered to 22.4 (second worst) in the playoffs. The one constant has been the inconsistent running game. Including all 20 games from the start of the season until now, the Patriots are 25th in rushing success rate. They have not been able to consistently move the ball on the ground at any point, and they’re unlikely to find much success against a Seattle run defense that is not just the best in the NFL this year, but by EPA is the best run defense of the 2020s. The Seahawks showed a few cracks against an elite Rams running game in the NFC championship, but their total ability to stifle Christian McCaffrey in the two games prior is more how I expect Sunday to go for the Patriots.
How can New England combat this? Their best option is to go into heavier sets. The Patriots have increasingly used six-offensive-linemen sets to improve their running game. Seattle is unlikely to counter by shifting out of their highly successful nickel formation, which could open more rushing success for the Pats. If the Seahawks do match, it could help Drake Maye use the quick passing game to exploit Seattle where it’s most vulnerable: covering tight ends. The Seahawks are allowing 64 yards per game to tight ends this year, which is fifth highest in the NFL. That’s where Hunter Henry and possession receiver Stefon Diggs become critical for the Patriots offense. Henry over 37.5 yards was the first prop bet I placed last week when the lines opened, and I’d still bet at the current 39.5 number. It’s hard to imagine New England finding consistent explosive success downfield against a secondary as disciplined as Mike Macdonald’s group. Seattle is one of just two defenses in the NFL that has allowed an explosive play rate below 8 percent this year (Denver is the other one). Since 2010, only two defenses have pulled that off for an entire season (2013 Cincinnati and 2017 Minnesota).
We just saw this Patriots offense face off against the other elite big-play-stopping defense in Denver. It was a serious slog for the Patriots to find any success, even before snow engulfed the stadium midway through the third quarter. New England averaged 13.8 plays of at least 10 yards per game in the regular season. They managed just seven against Denver. The Broncos were able to create pressure without blitzing and relied on their elite pass rush to beat up on a beleaguered Patriots offensive line.
The other question to consider is how well Maye will hold up under pressure. If you wanted to be critical of the MVP finalist this season, you could ding him for his high sack rate. While it’s true that many of his sacks were not for huge yardage losses, his propensity to hold on to the ball too long did get him into trouble. It’s a reason why he’s fumbled six times and been sacked 15 times in three playoff games. The Patriots offensive line has had major pass protection issues, but Maye is also getting sacked on more than half of his pressured dropbacks. That’s just too much. For context, the league average is 19.4 percent, including the playoffs.
Maye has compensated for the sack problem by increasing his scrambling rate in the playoffs. The betting odds have taken notice of this, but I’m not sure they can fully price it in for a high-magnitude playoff game, and thus I would bet Maye over 36.5 rushing yards too. Seattle’s defense plays a ton of zone but still has mixed results against scrambling quarterbacks.
Seattle Offense vs. New England Defense
The Seahawks have the third-lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL. As dynamic as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been this season, don’t let that trick you into thinking the Seahawks don’t run the ball more than almost every other team.
The injury to Zach Charbonnet leaves RB1 Kenneth Walker III with a bigger load to carry for the Seahawks, but he hasn’t been particularly efficient this year. True, he totaled 97 and 116 yards in two wins against a bad (and shorthanded) 49ers run defense in two of Seattle’s last three games, but the Seahawks finished the regular season 21st in EPA per rush. When the Seahawks are able to run the ball efficiently, good luck trying to stop them. But if you can slow down Seattle’s early-down rush offense and force them into obvious passing situations, that is where the offense has sputtered this season.
The Seahawks rank 23rd in success rate on third-and-5 yards or more. They try to stay out of these situations by running play-action and throwing downfield as much as possible, but that doesn’t make them a methodically efficient offense. They’re instead home run hitters constantly chasing explosive gains through the occasional Walker breakout run or a downfield throw. The Patriots, meanwhile, rank fifth best in success rate allowed on third-and-5 or more. New England’s run defense had some issues down the stretch when Milton Williams was out injured, but they’ve been elite with him back in the heart of their defensive line. Walker’s rushing prop has taken some under money all week long, and I’d still bet his under sitting at the current 73.5 yards (–110) line.
If both of these run offenses sputter, this matchup seems poised to feature a number of third-and-longs. That’s where these two defense-first coaches have the advantage to dial up the pressure, attack the weak points along each offensive line, and blitz two relatively inexperienced big-game quarterbacks. For New England, the offensive line has struggled on the left side with rookie left tackle Will Campbell. For Seattle, the issues are up the middle, and interior pass rush is a clear strength of the New England defensive front.
If the playoffs have shown us anything, it’s that while the Patriots offense was probably a bit overrated as a result of the weak schedule, the now-healthy Patriots defense was probably underrated, too. With Williams and shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez in the lineup, the Patriots are both stout against the run and solid at preventing explosive plays in the secondary.
Because these two coaches lean conservative and will trust their defenses to hold up and keep the game competitive, this profiles to be a slower start offensively. So I bet the first-half under at 22.5. Barring a bunch of turnovers or short fields, both defenses have the edge early.
Seattle’s Not-So-Hidden Advantage
Still, even if this profiles as a lower-scoring game with the occasional flicker of life, that will still favor Seattle, which has the better defense and, importantly, the better special teams. The Seahawks rank third in special teams EPA this season, and that success has played a critical role in both of their playoff victories. It’s one thing to add Rashid Shaheed as an electric return man, but Seattle has a more reliable kicker (Jason Myers) and the league’s second-best punter (Michael Dickson). When you add in that New England punter Bryce Baringer ranked 25th in punting efficiency, that is a considerable metric edge in potential hidden yardage for the Seahawks.
Given how good these two defenses are at forcing punts, and how much these offenses rely on explosive plays, there will probably be fewer methodical drives and more big yardage gains. That makes under 38.5 first downs (–110) one of my favorite game props for the Super Bowl.
The relative inexperience of the two quarterbacks only adds to the variance in the matchup. Both defenses are excellent at goading the opposition into forcing passes into tight windows. This game could well be decided by which quarterback doesn’t take the bait and fall into the traps.
Ultimately, though, it’s easier to pick the better defense and better special teams in a game where it’s difficult to truly believe in either offense. My choice is clear.
Prediction: Seattle 23, New England 16
My Super Bowl Bets
Kenneth Walker under 73.5 rushing yards (–110)
Hunter Henry over 39.5 receiving yards (–110)
Drake Maye over 37.5 rushing yards (–110)
Under 38.5 first downs (–110)
Over 1.5 total interceptions (+112)
First half under 22.5 (–110)
Long Shot
Coby Bryant INT (+850)
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.
