The insular but strategically positioned Red Sea country of Eritrea is coming under the radar of Arab capitals as a potential linchpin in Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s Red Sea rivalry.
Two Arab officials familiar with recent diplomacy told Middle East Eye that Egypt is trying to broker deeper security links between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia, with an eye towards checking the UAE’s influence as it increases military ties to Ethiopia.
The Arab officials told MEE that the developments are inspired by a defence deal struck between Sudan’s military and Pakistan in January. That agreement is widely understood to be financed by Saudi Arabia, although the weapons systems have yet to materialise.
MEE reported that Pakistani chief of air staff Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu, and Lieutenant General Turki bin Bander bin Abdulaziz of the Royal Saudi Air Force negotiated the deal on behalf of army chief Abdul Fattah al-Burhan.
The three-way diplomacy underscores the complex and shifting alliances rippling across the Red Sea.
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At one time, both Eritrea and Egypt were seen as particularly close to the UAE. Ties between Cairo and Abu Dhabi are not at rock bottom, but have become strained over Sudan’s civil war and Gaza.
Likewise, Eritrea, which has been ruled by former guerrilla leader President Isaias Afwerki since its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, was once aligned with the UAE.
Egypt and Eritrea try to entice Saudi Arabia
Eritrea served as a hub for the UAE’s military operations in Yemen. But the UAE dismantled its base on the Red Sea port of Assab in 2021 and more recently has forged a close military partnership with Ethiopia, Eritrea’s arch-rival.
“Supporting Eritrea makes sense from Egypt’s regional security perspective, but it has financial constraints, so if they can bring the Saudis in, who have significant financial resources, that’s in their interests,” Michael Woldemariam, an expert on the Horn of Africa and Eritrea at the University of Maryland, told MEE.
‘Egypt is trying to plug the gaps, of which Eritrea is definitely one’
– Mirette Mabrouk, Middle East Institute
“Of course, the Eritreans don’t need to be pushed by the Egyptians to embrace the Saudis. It’s been Asmara’s objective for some time,” he added.
The reclusive Afwerki has governed Eritrea with a tight grip since independence.
Eritrea was once an Italian colony. It fought a decades-long insurgency against Addis Ababa. The conflict was touched on by African writers such as Baalu Girma in his novel Oromay, which centres on the communist Derg government, but in the West, it is a largely forgotten Cold War conflict.
During the Cold War, Eritrean fighters courted Gulf states for support, with Egypt serving as a hub for Eritrean fighters.
“The relationship between Eritrea and Egypt is very deep and very old,” Martin Plaut, an expert on the Horn of Africa and author of Understanding Eritrea: Inside Africa’s Most Repressive State, told MEE.
MEE was told by the Arab officials that Afwerki discussed bolstering security ties with the Saudi Arabians during his four-day visit to the kingdom in December 2025. The 80-year-old former leader is viewed as a steely negotiator.
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In 2018, Eritrea and Ethiopia ended a bitter border dispute. Afwerki met his Ethiopian counterpart, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who later received a Nobel Prize for his diplomacy. Then in 2022, Eritrea fought on the side of Ahmed’s government in the brutal Ethiopian civil war that saw up to 600,000 people killed.
Now, tensions are once again running high between Eritrea and Ethiopia, with the latter accusing Asmara of arming rebel groups.
“Isaias is especially good at navigating these kinds of dynamics,” Plaut told MEE, regarding the shifting alliances in Africa and the Gulf.
“You essentially have two axes now: the Saudi and the Emirati. The Eritreans are now clearly with the former,” he added.
Shifting Gulf alliances
For Egypt, bolstering the Eritreans is part of its efforts to check Ethiopia, whose Grand Renaissance Dam project is viewed in Cairo as a major threat to national security. Ethiopia officially inaugurated the dam in September 2025.
The existing tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt have been turbocharged by Addis Ababa’s closer security cooperation with the UAE over Sudan.
‘The Eritreans don’t need to be pushed by the Egyptians to embrace the Saudis’
– Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland
MEE has revealed that Emirati personnel once deployed in Somalia have redeployed to Ethiopia, which, according to multiple sources, including a former Ethiopian government adviser, is now crucial to the UAE’s strategy in the region.
Throughout January, Emirati aircraft, including one dubbed the world’s largest military transport aircraft, have been recorded flying into Ethiopia, including Harar Meda Airport, the main base of the Ethiopian Air Force.
Experts tell MEE that Abu Dhabi is likely relying on Ethiopia to supply the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia back the Sudanese military against the RSF. The nasty public rupture in ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE became public shortly after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman lobbied the US against the UAE over Sudan. MEE was the first to reveal the lobbying campaign.
‘Eyeing drone defences’
“The Egyptians are keen to support the Eritreans for the most bleeding obvious reason, what Ethiopia has done to the Nile Dam,” Plaut told MEE.
“The Eritreans need new equipment. They have been fighting several wars. And they are very worried about the Ethiopian drones,” he added.
“Eritrea only has three sources of cash: peasant taxes, mining and a two percent diaspora tax,” he added. “So they need Saudi money.”
‘The Eritreans need new equipment. They are very worried about the Ethiopian drones’
– Martin Plaut, author of Understanding Eritrea
Mirette Mabrouk, the director of the Egypt programme at the Middle East Institute, told MEE that Egypt’s efforts to lobby for a security deal underscore a “proactive” tilt in Cairo’s approach to the Red Sea.
Egypt has put pressure on its ally, Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, to stop supplying the RSF with fuel and weapons. The New York Times reported that Egypt is hosting Turkish drones for use against the RSF.
“Egypt is trying to plug the gaps [in security challenges against the UAE], of which Eritrea is definitely one,” Mabrouk told MEE.
The challenge for Asmara and Cairo will be moving from this loose alliance into a framework for deliverables, experts and diplomats tell MEE. The Sudan-Pakistan deal is an example of the challenges.
There have been no public reports of Pakistani arms moving to Burhan’s forces yet. Sources familiar with the talks told MEE that Saudi Arabia, which has domestic economic needs, has been reluctant to fully commit despite the overtures from Cairo and Asmara.
Levent Kamal contributed to this report.
