Before the 2025 season began, I can’t imagine that there were many people predicting that the two Super Bowl teams would be the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
The Seahawks are sort of a throwback team, in that they win with an elite defense and a strong rushing attack, not unlike the Philadelphia Eagles of a season ago. After earning a first-round bye, they absolutely throttled the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round, 41-6. They then played a tighter game against another divisional rival in the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game, but outlasted them 31-27.
The Patriots have gotten to the Super Bowl by winning ugly. In the Wild Card Round they beat a depleted Chargers team that could not protect the quarterback, 16-3, followed by a sloppy 28-16 Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans in a game that had eight combined turnovers. In the AFC Championship Game, they won 10-7 in a snowy road game over a Denver Broncos team that was forced to start Jarrett Stidham in place of an injured Bo Nix.
The consensus view of this matchup is that the Patriots have the better quarterback, but the Seahawks have the better overall roster.
I’m not so sure I agree that the Pats have some kind of major advantage at quarterback. Though Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting to Matthew Stafford during the regular season, Sam Darnold has been better throughout the playoffs.
Super Bowl QBsComp-Att (Comp %) Yards (YPA) TD-INT Rating Sam Darnold 37-53 (69.8%) 470 (8.9) 4-0 122.4 Drake Maye 43-77 (55.8%) 533 (6.9) 4-2 84.0
To be fair to Maye, he did have to play against three very good pass defenses, in the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos, so that had something to do with his modest performances. At the same time, it’s also fair to point out that the Seahawks’ defense is every bit as good as the defenses Maye faced on the road to the Super Bowl.
What I do certainly agree on is that the Seahawks have the much better roster overall otherwise. I particularly like the Seahawks’ offensive skill position players better than the Patriots’, notably NFL Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Kenneth Walker. Those two guys are better than anything the Patriots have on offense, by far.
For me, picking this game is pretty simple. I’ve seen a lot of the Seahawks over the past couple of months, and I’ve been very impressed by them, on both sides of the ball, and even on special teams. The Patriots have been able to win games and advance further than anyone could have imagined, but they are not on the Seahawks’ level.
Give me the Seahawks, comfortably. 31-20.
PhillyVoice picks
• Geoff Mosher: Seahawks 28, Patriots 20
The Seahawks are the better team from top to bottom. The Patriots had an amazing year and have something special in Drake Maye, but Maye has been sacked a lot throughout the playoffs and has turned the ball over a tad too much. It’s gonna be tough for the Patriots to drive the ball against a Seahawks defense that makes you work for every inch. New England’s only chance to win is to force Sam Darnold into making several bad mistakes. He did lead the NFL in fumbles and threw 14 picks this year, so it can happen. But he has played really well in the postseason and seems destined to hoist the Lombardi.
• Evan Macy: Seahawks 31, Patriots 17
The Pats have a bad offensive line. The Seahawks have a good defensive line. In fact, they have the best defense in football. While I might give the coaching edge to Mike Vrabel, defense wins championships, and if Drake Maye starts another Patriots dynasty I might boycott the NFL next season (which would be difficult to do when you’re a sports editor). I think it’s another stinker and Seattle runs away with it.
• Nick Tricome: Seahawks 31, Patriots 17
I think the Seahawks have been far and away the meanest team in the whole playoff field, and I don’t see them stopping for anyone.
If the Patriots could only swing 10 points against the Broncos, who also had a pretty bruising defense but had to go without Bo Nix in the AFC title game, I don’t see Drake Maye and Co. producing much more against Seattle save for maybe a garbage time TD.
Offensively, I think Kenneth Walker sets the tone on the ground, and Sam Darnold manages a fine enough game for the Seahawks to mostly cruise here.
Seahawks fans will return to being annoying again after a decade, but at least it’ll upset Niners fans. So that’s a win in a way.
Jimmy’s Super Bowl game-picking history
For some reason, I didn’t pick the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl following the 2016 season, but here are my Super Bowl picks since then.
Super Bowl Jimmy’s game winner Jimmy’s spread pick 2025: Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 2024: Eagles vs. Chiefs (-2) Eagles ✅Eagles ✅2023: 49ers (-2) vs. Chiefs Chiefs ✅ Chiefs ✅ 2022: Eagles (-1.5) vs. Chiefs Eagles ❌ Eagles ❌ 2021: Rams (-4.5) vs. Bengals Rams ✅ Bengals ✅ 2020: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs (-3) Chiefs ❌ Chiefs ❌ 2019: 49ers vs. Chiefs (-1.5) Chiefs ✅ Chiefs ✅ 2018: Rams vs. Patriots (-2.5) Patriots ✅ Patriots ✅ 2017: Eagles vs. Patriots (-5.5) Eagles ✅ Eagles ✅
I had an atrocious season picking against the spread this season, but I’m 6-2 in the last eight Super Bowls!
• Picks against the spread: Seahawks (-4.5)
• Eagles picks: 10-8
• 2025 season, straight up: 183-98-1 (0.648)
• 2025 season, ATS: 53-62-2 (0.462)
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 502-438-24 (0.533)
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