Marquette Golden Eagles (9-15, 4-9 Big East) at RV Villanova Wildcats (18-5, 9-3 Big East)
Date: Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Time: 6:30pm Central
Location: Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, Pennsylvania
Points: Nigel James, 15.5 ppg
Rebounds: Ben Gold, 5.6 rpg
Assists: Nigel James, 4.6 apg
Marquette Injury Note: Sean Jones has missed the last ten games with a foot issue and has not yet returned to practice. After Saturday’s game against Butler, Shaka Smart said he is not sure if Jones will be able to get back on the court before the end of the regular season.
Points: Tyler Perkins, 13.1 ppg
Rebounds: Duke Brennan, 10.7 rpg
Assists: Acaden Lewis, 5.3 apg
Villanova Stats Note: I think it’s only fair to note that Bryce Lindsay is averaging 13.0 points per game and Perkins is only out in front for the team lead right now because he had 15 points on Saturday against Georgetown and Lindsay was held scoreless while shooting 0-for-8 in 20 minutes.
Marquette: #106
Villanova: #28
Game Projection: Villanova has a 90% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 78-65.
The Stakes: Marquette has nine Big East losses. A 10th loss in a 20 game conference schedule guarantees that MU will not have a winning record in conference play for the first time under the direction of Shaka Smart.
The Stakes, Part 2: Marquette has nine wins and 15 losses with seven regular season games left to go. The next loss by Marquette will mean that they will finish the regular season with a losing record for the first time since 2014-15.
Last Time Out: Villanova won, 76-73 at Fiserv Forum back on Saturday, January 10th. You might remember that as the “WHY ON EARTH IS CHASE ROSS SHOOTING FROM THERE TO TIE THIS?” game. While that might be the reason that Marquette did not get to overtime with the Wildcats, it’s not the reason why they lost. I’m not going to cut and past my entire rundown from the recap, but you can go read the eight reasons why Marquette lost the game that weren’t the awful final possession.
Since Last We Met: It doesn’t sound particularly great that Villanova has gone 5-2 since leaving Milwaukee, but they lost by seven at home to St. John’s and in overtime at UConn, so y’know, not really bad news there. Things got a little white-knuckle-y in an 88-82 win at the AMP over Providence, which was their very next game. They battled back from giving up a 16-2 run to St. John’s to only lose by seven, and the UConn loss actually went to overtime after the Huskies were the ones that forced it there.
Other than that, Villanova was handling their business pretty well up until Saturday’s visit to Capital One Arena. That one didn’t quite go as well as you’d think a game against Georgetown should go for them, including the Hoyas pulling even at 66 with under six minutes to go. They scored seven straight late to give themselves elbow room before ending up with an 80-73 victory to move to 9-3 in the Big East and create separation between the Wildcats and everyone else trying to challenge for a top five spot in the conference. Right now, VU has a three game lead in the loss column over 7-6 Creighton with eight games to play, including a game in Omaha coming up this weekend.
Tempo Free Fun: It’s not crazy to say that the Marquette team that lost to Villanova a month ago is not the Marquette team that will show up at The Finn on Tuesday night. The Marquette squad that we’ve seen in the last five games is much feistier than the one that went toe-to-toe with the Wildcats for 40 minutes and nearly pulled of what would have been a second straight win at the time.
We can math it out, if you want. Using BartTorvik.com’s filtering:
Up through the Villanova loss, Marquette was playing like the #127 team in the country, sporting the #188 offense in the land and the #82 defense.
From the end of that Villanova game in Milwaukee through the end of action on Sunday night, Marquette has been playing like the #57 team in the country in the last seven games. MU has had the #60 offense in the country in that time and the #85 defense.
Across the last five games alone, as the Golden Eagles have alternated wins and losses to a record of 3-2, Marquette has been the #39 team in the country. They have had the #52 offense and the #47 defense.
This doesn’t mean you should think that Marquette is suddenly favored to win in The Finn for the fourth time in four chances under the direction of head coach Shaka Smart. No, all it means is that Villanova’s edge in the game is a little bit smaller than the 13 point gap that both KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com give using the full season’s worth of stats. Can I interest you in Villanova by 7, 74-67, as a projection instead? That’s what both Marquette and Villanova’s trends as of late tell us according to the Torvik computers.
You want it in more simple terms? What if Marquette doesn’t let Villanova shoot 24-for-31 on two-pointers again? What if instead of 77%, MU holds the Wildcats to their defensive average over the last five games of just 53% inside the arc? What if Marquette does better than one kill and 13 deflections by halftime? What if they don’t give up a bad run to the Wildcats right before intermission? What if Marquette gets more than one field goal in the final three minutes? What if Ben Gold being a bit more healthy — he played just 13 minutes in the first meeting and then missed the next game completely with a leg issue — allows Marquette to put a bit more pressure on Villanova on both ends of the floor? What if Marquette shoots better than 19% on three-pointers like everyone not named Nigel James did in the first meeting?
What if, instead of playing like an incredibly flawed team that can’t get out of its own way like we saw a month ago, Marquette plays like a group of guys who have figured out how to maximize their own strengths and take advantage of opponents’ weaknesses?
What if the Marquette that took a punch from Butler this past Saturday and answered with a 27-7 run turns up in Philadelphia?
That’s the case for optimism in this game. Marquette played very poorly against Villanova in the first meeting and had a chance to force overtime at the horn. What if they take the parts that worked against the Wildcats and only do that for 40 minutes this time around?
Marquette Last 10 Games: 4-6, but with three wins in the last five games.
Villanova Last 10 Games: 7-3 with wins in their last three games and four of the last five.
All Time Series: Villanova leads, 29-20.
Current Streak: Villanova’s 76-73 victory at Fiserv Forum earlier this season gave them two straight wins in the series after Marquette had won a program record eight straight games against the Wildcats.
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