Portland’s persistent job losses, stagnant population and anemic housing construction have collectively tipped the city into a recession, economist Mike Wilkerson said Thursday, warning that conditions are deteriorating rather than improving.
“The conditions here are unlike what we see in any other metro” area, Wilkerson said at the Portland Metro Chamber’s annual State of the Economy breakfast. He said the region’s decline is broad-based and foundational.
“Unfortunately, it’s not one sector. It’s all of the sectors,” said, Wilkerson, of the Portland research firm ECONorthwest. The chamber commissioned Thursday’s report.
Multnomah County has lost 6,000 jobs in the last year and 33,000 since the pandemic, he said, with construction, manufacturing, professional services and other sectors all falling off.
“Why would that change?” asked Wilkerson. He ticked off a litany of economic headwinds including: Real estate investors’ disdain for Portland, residents’ growing pessimism about their financial prospects, a paucity of new housing construction, some of the nation’s highest personal income taxes, and a global trade war that is felt acutely in Oregon, a trade-dependent state.
To thrive, he said the region must find a way to attract businesses and residents, boost incomes while making housing more affordable, and reform its tax system so it’s less reliant on taxes on the personal income tax.
“Unless we’re willing to do things differently,” Wilkerson said, “we should expect the same outcomes.”
There’s no doubt that Portland’s economy is at a low ebb, but there’s no consensus about the depth or nature of its issues. And economists have no standard definition for what constitutes a recession at a regional level.
Multnomah County’s unemployment rate was 5.0% in December, up a full point from the end of 2024. That’s not high by historical standards, though. The county’s jobless rate has averaged 5.9% this century.
At their quarterly revenue forecast last week in Salem, state economists predicted steady job and income growth for the next two years. The forecast covered the statewide economy — not just Portland — but the metro area accounts for the bulk of Oregon’s economic activity.
While continuing unemployment claims are elevated, state economist Carl Riccadonna told a legislative committee that they “look nothing like an economic recession.”
Statewide economic output climbed last summer, according to the latest federal data, outpacing national growth, Riccadonna said. And recent stabilization of the state’s unemployment rate suggests the region’s economy may have already hit bottom.
“There’s potentially a narrative of a rebound happening,” he said.
