College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, February 14.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Clemson has been strong on defense, ranking 21st overall in points per possession allowed and 14th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage away from home. Duke is an ordinary 3-point shooting team, ranking 173rd in 3-point shooting percentage. The strength of their offense is inside, ranking fourth in 2-point shooting percentage. On offense, Clemson takes care of the ball as they rank 57th in turnovers per possession, while Duke is 138th.
Pick: Clemson +13 (Greg’s Handicap Clemson +9.5)
California Golden Bears vs. Boston College Eagles
The Boston College defense has been solid, ranking 51st in the country in points per possession allowed. The offense has not gotten going, with the team 280th or worse in 2-point shooting percentage, 3-point shooting percentage, and in a close game, they are 350th in free throw shooting percentage at 65.7%. California is 12th in road free throw shooting percentage and 17th in 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 39%.
Pick: California -2.5 (Greg’s Handicap California -6.5)
Georgia Tech Yellowjackets vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Georgia Tech has had issues putting together clean possessions on offense. They rank 275th in points per possession and 260th in turnovers per possession. Georgia Tech will not be getting many second chances to score with Notre Dame 11th in defensive rebound percentage and is 259th in possessions per game. On defense, Georgia Tech is 104th in points per possession allowed and 90th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 32.3%. Notre Dame is 108th in opponent 3-point shooting at 32.5%.
Pick: Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 144)
Samford Bulldogs vs. East Tennessee Buccaneers
Second chances to score will be hard to come by. East Tennessee ranks 23rd in the nation in road rebound percentage, with opponents grabbing just 24.1% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound, while Samford is 24th in defensive rebound percentage away from home. East Tennessee does a good job of limiting the amount of clean possessions in a game as they play at a slow pace, ranking 292nd in total possessions per game. They are 46th in turnovers generated per possession away from home.
Pick: Samford vs. East Tennessee Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 140)
1:00 PM Eastern
Long Island Sharks vs. New Haven Chargers
New Haven ranks 365th out of 365 Division I teams in total possessions per game and is just 350th in points per possession. Long Island is 95th in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.4%. New Haven is 348th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home at 39.1%. Long Island is 29th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 34.9% of their misses as an offensive rebound.
Pick: Long Island -7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Long Island -10)
2:30 PM Eastern
Villanova Wildcats vs. Creighton Blue Jays
Villanova is looking to slow games down, ranking 296th in total possessions per game. Their defense is strong on the road, ranking 44th in points per possession allowed away from home. Creighton is 240th in possessions per game and ranks 99th in points per possession on offense and shoot 37.2% from 3-point range at home. They face a Villanova defense that is 36th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 30.6%
Pick: Villanova vs. Creighton Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 140)
Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Radford Highlanders
Radford’s perimeter defense has suffered all season, ranking 342nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home at 38.7%. They are 297th in points per possession allowed at home, while Charleston Southern is 86th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home. They face a Radford team that takes 49.1% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range, the 25th-highest percentage in the nation. Charleston Southern has the 15th-highest percentage of field goal attempts that come from 3-point range.
Pick: Charleston Southern +4.5 (Greg’s Handicap Charleston Southern -2.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
NJIT Highlanders vs. Maine Black Bears
Maine has been a respectable defense at home, ranking 77th in points per possession allowed. They are dead last out of the 365 Division I teams in points per possession at home all while playing at a glacial pace of 346th in possessions per game. NJIT has a rare edge on the glass as they are just 307th in rebound percentage. Maine is 364th in this category, and in a tight game, Maine shoots 64.7% at the free throw line, which ranks 360th in the country.
Picks: NJIT -1.5 and Under 136.5 (Greg’s Handicap NJIT -4.5 and Total 128.5)
Kentucky Wildcats vs Florida Gators
Both teams.are similar in offensive efficiency, with Florida 32nd in points per possession while Kentucky is 39th. Florida is just 357th in home 3-point shooting percentage at 27.9%. Kentucky is taking better care of the ball, ranking 40th in fewest turnovers per possession on offense, while Florida is 128th.
Pick: Kentucky +11.5 (Greg’s Handicap Kentucky +8)
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Arlington has had big issues taking care of the ball, ranking 355th in turnovers per possession on offense. Southern Utah is almost as sloppy as they are 343rd in turnovers per possession. Southern Utah will not have many good looks from the outside, with UT Arlington third in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 27.7%. Southern Utah is 362nd with opponents making 39.4% of their 3-point shots. UT Arlington grabs 37.2% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound at home, which ranks 26th in the nation, while Southern Utah is 319th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing 32.3% of opponents’ missed shots to become an offensive rebound.
Pick: UT Arlington -8.5 (Greg’s Handicap UT Arlington -13.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Louisville Cardinals vs. Baylor Bears
Louisville takes 53.5% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range, which is the second-highest percentage in the nation. They are making just 32.6% of their 3-point shots away from home compared to 37% at home. Baylor has slowed down significantly since conference play began, as they are currently 132nd in total possessions per game after ranking 60th on January 1. They have relied on offensive rebounds to generate offense, ranking 17th in offensive rebound percentage, with 35.8% of their missed shots coming back as offensive rebounds. Louisville has been strong on the glass, ranking 33rd in defensive rebound percentage, and they are 30th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Louisville vs. Baylor Under 163.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 158.5)
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Houston Cougars
Kansas State is sixth in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 28.2%. On offense, they are 27th in road 3-point shooting percentage at home at 38.1%, while Houston is 138th in defensive rebound percentage and 99th in 2-point shooting percentage. Kansas State is overall 195th in turnovers per possession on offense. That improves to 111th away from home.
Pick: Kansas State +23.5 (Greg’s Handicap Kansas State +20.5)
5:00 PM Eastern
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Both teams play at a very slow pace. Purdue is 299th in total possessions per game. Iowa is 361st, but both offenses are incredibly efficient; Iowa is 10th in points per possession at home. Purdue is second in the nation in points per possession away from home. Both teams are taking great care of the ball, with Iowa 67th in turnovers per possession while Purdue is 26th.
Pick: Purdue vs. Iowa Over 141.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 144.5)
Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons
The lone thing Toledo has done on defense is force turnovers, ranking 88th in turnovers per possession. Bowling Green has been even better, ranking 34th in this department and should carve up a Toledo defense that is 240th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 323rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Bowling Green should get time of second chances to score with Toledo 351st in defensive rebound percentage, with opponents grabbing 35% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound. Bowling Green is 64th in defensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Bowling Green -4.5 (Greg’s Handicap Bowling Green -7.5)
Tennessee Tech vs. Southern Indiana
Neither team is delivering much on offense. Southern Indiana is 358th in points per possession, while Tennessee Tech ranks 270th. Tennessee Tech is also 335th in turnovers per possession. Southern Indiana is 343rd in 3-point shooting percentage, 2-point shooting percentage, and free throw shooting percentage, but they are 80th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 67th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Tennessee Tech vs. Southern Indiana Under 142.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 135.5)
5:30 PM Eastern
Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
UT Rio Grande Valley is one of the few teams in the nation that is scoring fewer points per possession at home than away, ranking 63rd in points per possession away from home compared to 323rd at home. Their 3-point shooting percentage falls from 40.4% away from home to 31.6% at home. Stephen F Austin is 41st in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.8%. On defense, they are 16th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Stephen F Austin -1 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap Stephen F Austin -5 and Total 140)
8:00 PM Eastern
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. CS Northridge Matadors
Hawaii ranks fourth in the country in points per possession allowed and 21st in rebound percentage. CS Northridge has been playing at a rapid pace, ranking fifth in possessions per game. They have been inefficient with many of those possessions as they are 208th in points per possession and 256th in turnovers per possession on offense, and they are 354th in free throw shooting percentage at 65.5%.
Picks: Hawaii -3 and Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap Hawaii -5.5 and Total 155.5)
Memphis Tigers vs. Utah State Aggies
Utah State does a great job limiting clean possessions, ranking 17th in turnovers per possession, while being a pretty mid-tempo team at 186th in total possessions per game. Memphis has also done a great job at generating turnovers, as they are 29th in turnovers per possession on defense, while their offense has had massive issues to take care of the ball, ranking 339th in turnovers per possession. They are limiting teams from the outside, ranking 12th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 29.4%.
Picks: Memphis +14.5 and Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap Memphis +11.5 and Total 147.5)
10:30 PM Eastern
St. Mary’s Gaels vs. Pacific Tigers
St. Mary’s is 307th in possessions per game and 18th in points per possession allowed. Neither team is likely to get second chances to score, as Pacific is fourth in defensive rebound percentage, while St. Mary’s is fifth. Pacific is 57th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.3%. The weakness for Pacific of ranking 341st in turnovers per possession on offense will not be exposed as St. Mary’s is 295th in turnovers per possession generated on defense.
Pick: Pacific +8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Pacific +7)
