If you happened to catch the end of Saturday morning’s Sweden-Slovakia men’s hockey game, you may have been surprised at what you saw.
In the final seconds of the third period, Sweden pulled its goalie to try to score another goal even though it held a 5-3 lead. The Swedes weren’t able to score, so another curious sight was to see Slovakia celebrate after the loss.
“It’s probably the best loss I ever had,” Slovakia’s Juraj Slafkovsky said afterwards.
That’s because, with a heavily favoured Finland playing Italy right after, the most likely conclusion from Group B was a three-way tie at the top. That is exactly what happened, too, with Finland hammering the host Italians 11-0. Slovakia knew what was at stake and it knew what the tiebreaker scenarios were, so a 5-3 loss seemed good enough to finish with the No. 1 ranking in Group B and an all-important bye into the quarterfinal.
The way we got here is a reminder of how important goal differential is in a tournament like this. A last-minute goal by the Slovaks was crucial for them and without it, Sweden would have taken the group.
How did this all come to be? Here’s a quick explainer.
Why Slovakia won the Group B tiebreaker
Slovakia, Finland and Sweden all finished with 2-1 records, with all wins coming in regulation, so the group finished in a three-way tie at six points.
In the Olympic tournament, the first tie-breaker in this scenario was points awarded in head-to-head games. However, since Slovakia beat Finland, Sweden beat Slovakia, and Finland beat Sweden all in regulation, the three teams remained tied at three points each by this measure. So onto the second tiebreaker we go.
That came down to goal differential in the head-to-head games the three tied teams played against each other, and this is where Slovakia got the narrow win.
Incredibly, Dalibor Dvorsky’s goal with 39 seconds left in Saturday’s loss to Sweden was crucial for Slovakia to win on this tiebreaker. Had he not scored that goal, Finland, Sweden and Slovakia would have been tied in head-to-head goal differential as well, and we would have needed a third tie-breaker.
If it had come to that, the next tie-breaker would have been highest number of goals scored in the head-to-head games between the three teams. In that scenario, Sweden and Slovakia would have been tied at six (without Dvorsky’s goal), and Finland would have been at five. Since the Finns fell out of the tie-breaker here, the head-to-head result between Sweden and Slovakia would have broken that tie and given Sweden top spot in the group.
In conclusion, if Dvorsky doesn’t score a last-minute goal in a 5-3 loss, Sweden would have won the group. Instead, the Swedes finish third.
What this means for the playoff round
When the preliminary round is complete, all 12 teams will be ranked 1-12 to determine the playoffs. The top four teams (group winners plus the best second-place team) will get a bye through the qualification playoff round into the quarterfinal.
The teams ranked 5-12 will play in a single-game playoff round. The criteria for ranking the 12 teams are as follows:
• Higher position in the group
• Higher number of points
• Better goal differential
• Higher number of goals scored
• Better 2023 IIHF world ranking
In the first playoff round, the fifth seed will play the 12th, the sixth will play the 11th, the seventh will play the 10th, and the eighth will face the ninth.
In the quarterfinals, we will have the following matchups:
• No. 1 vs. winner of 8/9
• No. 2 vs. winner of 7/10
• No. 3 vs. winner of 6/11
• No. 4 vs. winner of 5/12
So, a couple of important things to consider…
• Canada and the U.S. are the only two teams left that haven’t lost a game. If both of those teams finish the group stage with three regulation wins, they will enter a tiebreaker to determine who gets the first overall seed. That again would mean goal differential is a critical stat to watch. Currently, Canada is +9, and Team USA is +7. The Canadians have one game left on Sunday versus France (10:40 a.m. ET), while the Americans finish against Germany on Sunday (3:10 p.m. ET). With those two teams set to finish first and second overall, they will be on a collision course for a gold-medal matchup, with no other showdown possible between the North American rivals.
• By finishing third in Group B, Sweden can’t get anything higher than the seventh seed. Without any further preliminary round upsets, that is the most likely result and would put Sweden on a collision course to play against the No. 2 seed in the quarterfinal. It would set up a clash of significant hockey nations and guarantee an early exit for a team with medal potential.
Of course, there are still four games left to determine the final seeding and an outside chance that Sweden could end up with the No. 8 overall ranking, which would put them on a path to face the No. 1 overall seed in the quarterfinal.
Dvorsky’s late goal against Sweden on Saturday, which would have been meaningless in a vacuum, looms large on the Olympic stage and sets up Sweden for a much more difficult path to gold.
All this makes for a highly interesting final day of the preliminary round in the men’s Olympic hockey tournament. Here is a look at the schedule, and what’s at stake in each game:
Switzerland vs. Czechia, 6:10 a.m. ET: The winner of this game finishes second in Group A. If that win is in regulation, Czechia or Switzerland would be in the best position to finish as the No. 5 seed and draw Italy, France or possibly Denmark in the first playoff round, then be in line to meet Finland in the quarters. If that win comes in extra time, that team would finish with five points, which would probably still be good enough for the No. 5, but Germany or Latvia would have more chance at an overtake.
Canada vs. France, 10:40 a.m. ET: With goal differential being so important from here, the Canadians will be incentivized to run up the score. They will set a number the Americans will chase later in the day.
Right now, France is the No. 11 seed with a -7 goal differential. Italy ranks 12th with a -15 goal differential. France will finish as the 12th seed if the Canadians shut them out by at least eight goals, but if France scores a goal, Canada would have to win by nine for them to drop below Italy.
Denmark vs. Latvia, 1:10 p.m. ET: If Latvia wins this game in regulation and the Americans beat Germany, Latvia would finish second in Group C and likely claim the No. 6 seed. There’s a chance the Latvians could go to No. 5 over Czechia or Switzerland, but they’d either have to overcome a goal differential (Latvia is -3, Czechia is -2 and Switzerland is even) or they could win this game in regulation and finish No. 5 if the Czechia-Switzerland contest goes to extra time.
If Denmark wins this game in regulation, it opens up the possibility of a three-way tie in Group C for second, third and fourth. If Denmark loses this game, they will likely finish as the No. 10 seed, given their goal differential (-5) is better than France (-7) and Italy (-15).
United States vs. Germany, 3:10 p.m. ET: Like Canada, Team USA will feel motivation to run up the score as much as it needs to earn the No. 1 overall ranking. The rivals are tied in standings points, so if both win Sunday in the same fashion, No. 1 will go to whichever team has the better goal differential. The U.S. is +7 to Canada’s +9. The advantage the Americans have is that the game comes after Canada’s, so they’ll know exactly how many goals they’ll need to win by to finish first. Might we see a situation where Team USA is winning by some lopsided score, but pulls the goalie late looking for one last goal?
What if Canada and USA are tied in points and goal differential after Sunday’s games?
The next tiebreaker would be higher number of goals scored, and currently, USA holds that advantage with 11 goals to Canada’s 10. So if Team USA were to beat Germany by two more goals than Canada beats France, and it scores at least as many times as Canada does on Sunday, Team USA would finish first and Canada second.
What happens if Latvia, Germany and Denmark are tied below USA in Group C?
We’d go through the same process as we did in Group B, except for lower seeds. Germany has already beaten Denmark 3-1 and lost 4-3 to Latvia, so we know they have a +1 goal differential to consider in a three-way tiebreaker.
Latvia also enters the day +1 for this scenario, and Denmark -2. So, the Danes would need to beat Latvia by two to pass them, and they’d have to win by at least four to have a chance at passing Germany for second in the group.
Where does this leave Finland?
With their preliminary round finishing with a second-place showing in Group B, Finland has the inside track to get the last bye into the quarterfinal. The Finns have a +11 goal differential, which is 10 better than any other team (Germany) that could possibly pass them.
How could Sweden be passed for No. 7?
This seems unlikely, however, this is how it could happen:
Latvia beats Denmark in regulation by at least six goals and Germany beats USA in regulation by at least two goals.
If both of those things happen, Sweden would move to No. 8 and be in line to face the No. 1 overall seed in a potential quarterfinal matchup.
What happens in the semifinal?
Teams are re-seeded for only the semifinal. So no matter the outcome in the quarterfinals, the top remaining seed will play against the bottom remaining seed in the semis.
