Tuesday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil thinks the investment thesis for Canadian midstream energy infrastructure companies has now “played out,” leading him to downgrade his ratings for shares of Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T), Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T) and TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T) to “hold” from “buy” previously.

“In our January 2026 Industry Update, we said that companies that provide visibility to long-term growth will trade at a premium,” he explained. “Following strong share price performances year-to-date, we believe that this thesis has played out. As such, we are downgrading ENB, PPL, and TRP to HOLD from Buy previously. KEY is our only remaining BUY rating in Cdn midstream and remains our top pick. We are restricted on GEI.”

In a client report released before the bell on Tuesday, Mr. MacNeil argued the prevailing valuations for all three companies now “imply full credit for medium duration (3-5-year) growth.”

“We show TD Cowen 2026-2030 estimated EV/EBITDA ratios expressed as a premium or discount to each company’s historical 10-year mean on a forward 12 month basis,” he said. This is meant to illustrate the implied number of years of growth investors are currently paying for at each companies prevailing valuation. To this end, TC Energy reaches its 10-year mean in 2030, Pembina in 2029, and Enbridge in mid-2028. Conversely, Keyera’s premium in 2026 contemplates only a partial year contribution from the Plains transaction, and reverts to the mean in 2027, underpinning our preference for Keyera at this time.

“Our estimates already contemplate near-term growth catalysts … Our 2026-2030 estimates already contemplate organic growth from capital projects that have not yet reached a positive FID. To this end, we fully expect these companies to secure attractive growth projects in the near- and medium-term.”

Mr. MacNeil raised his targets for all six companies he’s currently covering in the space. They are:

• Enbridge Inc. to $72 from $70. The average on the Street is $73.12, according to LSEG data.
• Keyera Corp. (KEY-T, “buy”) to $58 from $56. Average: $53.75.
• Pembina Pipeline to $62 from $59. Average: $58.38.
• Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T, “hold) to $31 from $30. Average: $30.83.
• South Bow Corp. (SOBO-T, “hold”) to $40 from $37. Average: $39.87.
• TC Energy to $88 from $84. Average: $86.

Elsewhere, citing valuation concerns after recent appreciation, Jefferies’ Sam Burwell downgraded Enbridge Inc. to “hold” from “buy” while raising his target to $76 from $71.

Others making target revisions for Enbridge include:

* RBC’s Maurice Choy to $76 from $72 with an “outperform” rating.

“While Enbridge maintained its 2026 and near-term outlooks amid a neutral to slightly positive Q4/25 results, the elevated level of transparency of its near-term opportunities, the associated returns, and bold mention of MLO3 amid recent geopolitical events, underpin Enbridge’s confidence in being able to durably deliver its targeted low-risk growth rates. Longer term, as the company completes some of its upcoming projects within its secured growth program, and taking a cue that the newer incoming opportunities may have higher returns, we wonder if investors can expect growth rates that are better than its existing 5-per-cent medium- term (post-2026) outlook,” said Mr. Choy.

* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $77 from $75 with an “outperform” rating.

“ENB remains our preferred Canadian large cap pipeline name given a reasonable valuation, strong balance sheet, and clear momentum on growth projects across each of the four businesses,” said Mr. Barth.

]* Scotia’s Robert Hope to $77 from $73 with a “sector outperform” rating.

“While the shares have performed well year-to-date, we note that Enbridge’s valuation expansion over the last year has been less pronounced than its gas-focused peers. We see Enbridge as having a strong gas-levered growth outlook, which we do not believe is fully reflected by the market. Our 2027/2028 estimates increase largely to reflect the two power projects that were announced,” said Mr. Hope.

* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $78 from $72 with an “outperform” rating.

“ENB shares traded up 3.8 per cent during the Friday session following its premarket release and conference call. The EBITDA print beat consensus expectations by 2 per cent and was accompanied by strategic growth updates and reaffirmed guidance. The update illustrated the vast growth optionality for ENB across multiple avenues of the energy value chain. The aggregate growth pipeline is now an aggregate $39-billion with $8-billion that should enter service in 2026,” said Mr. Heywood.

* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $72 from $71 with a “sector perform” rating.

Heading into first-quarter 2026 earnings season, National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine thinks Canadian banks “offer defensive characteristics that are attractive in the current environment” and sees them “well positioned to merit positive EPS revisions given relatively ‘lower bars’ (e.g., Capital Markets, credit).”

“Bank stocks are up 2 per cent so far this year, underperforming the S&P/TSX by 180 basis points,” he said. “This performance isn’t surprising, considering Big-6 bank stocks typically underperform the market in the first half of the year (i.e., 10 of the last 12 years). For the stocks to improve momentum, positive EPS revisions are a necessity. Encouragingly, they have merited this treatment in each of the past four quarters. However, it is worth highlighting that the street was forecasting 6-per-cent growth at the outset of fiscal 2025, compared to the 10 per cent 2026E growth forecast they are facing today. In other words, the bar has been raised. Our top picks in the sector are RY and TD.”

In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Dechaine raised his quarterly earnings per share projections for the Big 6 EPS by an average of 1 per cent “reflecting: 1) higher Capital Markets revenue forecasts; 2) higher Wealth Management fee income; 3) offset by higher variable compensation; and 4) a weaker USD.”

He also emphasized three areas of focus for earnings season:

* The outlook for credit remains “in a holding pattern.” He does not expect any changes, “reiterating the base case of ”improvement in the second half” could hit sector valuation.“

* Capital Markets will “shine once again.” He sees a “positive” market backdrop continuing to boost segment results. The analyst increased his trading revenue forecasts, as well as his advisory revenue forecasts.

* A “lack of organic growth results in buyback pace maintained.” 

“Loan growth has been lacking for Canadian banks, as evidenced by credit risk RWA growth on a decelerating trajectory over the past three quarters,” he said. “As such, capital deployment strategies have been tilted towards share buybacks. During the quarter, the pace of buybacks accelerated sequentially. Ultimately, loan growth will need to rebound in order to make achieving ROE targets more realistic.”

With his increased estimates, Mr. Dechaine also raised his target prices for stocks in the sector. His changes are:

• Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “sector perform”) to $186 from $181. The average target on the Street is $197.50, according to LSEG data.
• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “sector perform”) to $102 from $100. Average: $104.10.
• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “sector perform”) to $131 from $128. Average: $132.60.
• Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “outperform”) to $241 from $235. Average: $241.73.
• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “outperform”) to $138 from $134. Average: $132.45.

He also raised his EQB Inc. (EQB-T) target to $111 from $98 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $109.94.

Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland is maintaining “a positive near-term view” on Canadian banks ahead of first-quarter reports, seeing “earnings supported by resilient fee-based activity, particularly within Capital Markets and Wealth Management.”

“Strength in metals and mining as well as broader equity market gains, alongside elevated equity trading volumes, should support non-interest revenue,” he said. “We believe BMO and National Bank in particular are well positioned to benefit given their capital markets exposure.

“For FY26, we now expect EPS growth of 10.8 per cent across the group, supported by steady (though muted) loan growth, continued strength in fee-based businesses, and improving credit trends, which we expect to materialize more meaningfully in the second half of the year.”

In a client report released Monday, Mr. Boland made one rating change, upgrading Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $214 target, rising from $183 and above the average of $197.50.

“Our refreshed view reflects an improved capital markets outlook, clearer ROE improvement timelines from management, and the potential for renewed momentum in U.S. loan growth,” he said. “We note that BMO expects to record an approximately $200 million restructuring charge in 1Q26, which will not be adjusted out of reported results; we estimate a $0.21 EPS impact and view it as a one-time item that does not alter the underlying trajectory.”

Mr. Boland also made these target changes:

• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “outperform”) to $114 from $109. Average: $104.10.
• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “market perform”) to $135 from $122. Average: $132.60.
• National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “market perform”) to $179 from $173. Average: $176.30.
• Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “outperform”) to $248 from $239. Average: $241.73.
• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “market perform”) to $138 from $122. Average: $132.45.

In response to recent share price appreciation and the need for a higher capital spend Vicuñas project joint venture along the Chile-Argentina border, National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle downgraded Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) to a “sector perform” rating from “outperform” previously.

“Shares of LUN are up 181 per cent since the start of 2025 (TSX Global Base Metals Index up 78 per cent over the same period) and are up 298 per cent since we upgraded to OP on Nov. 2, 2023 (vs. Index up 112 per cent),“ he said. ”Given the strong share price performance, our expectation that the market will take a more cautious approach to growth outlook given the pending development of Vicuñas and a premium valuation of 1.16 times NAV (peers (1.14 times) and 10.4 times EV/2027 estimated cash flow (peers at 7.2 times), we are moving to Sector Perform (was Outperform).”

On Monday, Vancouver-based Lundin announced the results of an integrated technical study for Vicuña, which is comprised of the Filo del Sol deposit and the Josemaria deposit and is held by Vicuña Corp., a 50/50 joint arrangement with BHP. It sees the project having the “potential to be a top five copper, gold, and silver mine” with average annual production of 400,000 tons of copper, 700,000 ounces of gold and 22 million ounces of silver over the first 25 full years of operation.

“Lundin provided an updated technical report outlining a three-phased development approach at Vicuñas broadly in line with scale/capital costs incorporated in NBCM Estimates,” said Mr. Nagle. “Peak copper production (over a 10-year average of 508 Dtpa) with modestly lower gold by-product production. The tech report outlines exceptional longer-term optionality with a stated 70+ year mine life (NBCM Base Case is 32-year mine life).

“Total initial capital costs of all three phases amount to US$18.1-billion (NBCM: US$16.5-billion); however, the PEA also assumes the desalination plant, water pipeline, concentrate pipeline and roaster would be financed in a separate third-party infrastructure company, which outlines the higher LOM sustaining capital cost relative to NBCM Estimates. As a result, the NPV8% [net present value using an 8-per-cent discount rate] of US$9.5-billion and IRR of 14.8 per cent are lower than NBCM of US$19.5-billion and 20.9 per cent at comparable commodity price assumptions.”

Mr. Nagle kept a $40 target for Lundin shares. The average is $33.59.

“We have yet to fully incorporate the updated Vicuñas technical report as we await additional details on [Tuesday’s] conference call and pending Q4 financials later in the week. We expect higher LOM capital costs and the need to continue converting resources (as 70 per cent of PEA is based on Inferred) will remain near-term headwinds as the project approaches sanctioning later this year,” he explained.

“Operational excellence continues to drive growth” for Magna International Inc. (MGA-N, MG-T), said RBC Capital Markers analyst Tom Narayan following a fourth-quarter 2025 beat and stronger-than-anticipated 2026 guidance.

U.S.-listed shares of the Aurora, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer soared 18.9 per cent on Friday after it forecast adjusted profit per share for 2026 will be between US$6.25 and US$7.25 and steady sales steady sales for 2026 as it benefits from new assembly work for Chinese electric carmakers. That target exceeds the Street’s expectation of US$5.99,

“Management raised ’26 guidance on confidence in sustained operational improvements and a more favorable commercial backdrop,” he said. “Expected margin expansion of 40-100 basis points (70 bps at midpoint) is driven primarily by 35-40 bps from ongoing operational excellence initiatives – a multi-year margin tailwind as the company scales digital transformation, material flow optimization, and AI- enabled manufacturing. Magna also anticipates earnings leverage from new program launches with higher content and improved economics, particularly within P&V and BE&S [Body Exteriors & Structures and Power & Vision] (guided to 2.0-per-cent and 5.5-per-cent GoM [growth over market] at the midpoint), which represent 75 per cent of sales. The organic sales growth assumption of negative 1 per cent to up 2 per cent (implying 1-4-per-cent growth ex-CV) benefits from new assembly programs for Chinese OEMs XPeng and GAC launching in Europe, modest European production upside, and foreign currency tailwinds from an assumed weaker US dollar. Management has embedded relatively neutral commercial recoveries at the EBIT line, though incremental cash benefits are expected from legacy EV program settlements, suggesting a more normalized, sustainable earnings profile going forward.”

In a client note titled In the Driver’s Seat, Mr. Narayan sees headwinds ahead for both its Commercial Vehicle and Seating business, but he warned of the risk of inflation for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) components.

“Magna expects a fourth consecutive year of margin expansion supported by its robust pipeline (2028 business 90-per-cent secured) and operational excellence initiatives,” he explained. “However, near-term headwinds are notable: Seating faces a 6-per-cent revenue decline from the Ford Escape retooling and model transitions, pressuring near-term margins despite cost mitigation. Despite new Chinese OEM launches, CV guidance was negatively impacted by lower engineering revenue and the end of production of certain programs. We view the year-over-year declines in these segments as less impactful given lower margin profile relative to BE&S and P&V.”

Pointing to Magna’s “continued momentum with the company’s operational excellence initiatives and supplier multiples re-rating higher,” the analyst hiked his target to US$59 from US$48, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target is US$56.56.

Elsewhere, other changes include:

* Raymond James’ Michael Glen to US$75 from US$50 with a “market perform” rating.

“With a strong free cash outlook, disciplined capital/mega-trend spending, and an explicit target to repurchase 22 million shares in 2026, it is clear Magna is aligning itself with investor feedback received exiting 2024. While we maintain our MP3 rating, we believe this capital allocation pivot will help support valuation and engage more investors in the stock,” said Mr. Glen.

* Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman to US$69 from US$57 with a “sector perform” rating.

“We would be taking profits following the 19-per-cent move last Friday, which we find unreasonable in the context of a low quality guidance beat and unchanged business fundamentals. Shares may also have been aided by short covering and a positive CPI print,” Mr. Goldman said.

* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $75 from $58 with a “buy” rating.

“Magna reported Q4/25 EBITDA/EPS ahead of consensus. The initiation of 2026 guidance is also ahead of consensus, with underlying key drivers appearing reasonable. The quarterly FCF/2026 outlook was also above expectations, reducing leverage to its target range, enabling Magna to commit to a material NCIB. This should support upward financial revisions and a multiple re-rate,” said Mr. Morrison.

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong sees Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) poised to benefit as uranium and nuclear fundamentals “continue to strengthen.”

“We think uranium market fundamentals remain tight and expect continued improvements in contracting activity and prices through 2026,” he said. “We also see accelerating momentum in nuclear new builds, with greater opportunities for new builds and potential to pull-forward business as governments and industries work to accelerate construction. We continue to see Cameco as best-positioned within the uranium and nuclear sector to benefit from strong fundamentals, and see potential positive catalysts through 2026.”

“We see sustained tightness in uranium given rising demand, continued supply-side risks, and a long-term S&D deficit into the mid-2030s. In the spot market, strong financials interest has supported higher prices, although this could moderate through the year as SPUT uses up buying capacity, but we see spot price downside limited given higher term prices. In term contracting markets, activity picked up significantly in late-2025, but remains below replacement level activity and will likely increase in 2026/2027 as utilities address lower contract coverage starting early-2030s. We expect this activity to support recent price increases for contracting with floors/ceilings at about $70s/$140-150s, while fixed price term contracts could move toward $95-100/lb (for comparison, current spot/term prices are in the mid-to-high $80/lb range).”

In a client note, Mr. McKellar emphasized nuclear momentum is likely to support long-term growth for Westinghouse Electric Co., which is shares ownership (49-per-cent stake) with Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (BEP.UN-T), and he now sees potential upside to its 2026 outlook.

“We see continued growth in nuclear capacity and strong momentum across all regions to construct new nuclear plants,” he said. “We think Westinghouse is best-positioned to capture new nuclear build opportunities with the AP1000 reactor, especially in Western-aligned regions. In the U.S., Cameco could see potential long-lead procurement for AP1000s before site selection and FID, to meet ambitious construction timelines – essentially front-loaded business vs. the traditional S-curve revenue recognition for new build projects. Additionally, we see potential for FID on projects in Poland and Bulgaria, and we anticipate progress for projects being considered in other regions including Canada, India, Saudi Arabia, and East/Central Europe. We see upside to the current 2026 Westinghouse guidance, as it does not include these potential new build opportunities.”

Also noting Cameco’s operations are “running as expected” but higher capex is likely required, Mr. McKellar increased his target to $160 from $150, reaffirming an “outperform” rating. The average is $159.45.

“We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from a renewed focus on nuclear energy and a tightening uranium market, especially as a Western-based producer in a market shift toward security of supply. Additionally, we think Cameco has the right mix of assets to meet the coming market needs: proven uranium production with upside, conversion capacity, potential long-term enrichment technology, and nuclear services,” he concluded.

Elsewhere, other changes include:

* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to $175 from $180 with an “outperform” rating.

“CCO provides investors with lower-risk exposure to the uranium market given its diversification of sources. These sources are supported by a portfolio of long-term contracts that provide some downside protection in periods of depressed spot uranium prices, while maintaining optionality to higher uranium prices. In addition, CCO has multiple operations curtailed that could be brought back should uranium prices increase. Although the 2021 tax court decision applies only to the 2003, 2005, and 2006 tax years, we view it as a positive for CCO given we believe it could be relevant in determining the outcome for other years and reduces risk related to the CRA dispute,” said Mr. MacArthur.

* Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw to $150 from $155 with a “sector outperform” rating.

“CCO released strong Q4/25 results that were well above consensus. However, maiden 2026 guidance was modestly below our expectations (by 3 per cent for many key metrics). While we have reduced our near-term estimates, we continue to see a very attractive multi-year outlook ahead (including WEC EBITDA growth momentum resuming in 2027). Overall, we view the update as slightly negative for the shares. We rate CCO shares Sector Outperform based on improving fundamentals driven by the Western World agendas of decarbonization, energy independence, and power security,” said Mr. Wowkodaw.

In a client report titled Did Finning Just Become a Growing Perpetuity?, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman predicts Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) can reach $120 per share in the near-term based on further multiple expansion.

“Shares are trading at a 10 times discount to TIH vs. the 10-year average of 6.5 times,” he explained. “Besides closing the historical valuation gap, we see further upside on the multiple as oil sands customers operating and capital discipline is translating to Finning’s earnings by reducing earnings volatility, which has been one of the key arguments for a perennial discount to TIH. In 2025, the company did $3.1-billion Product Support revenue and $450-million EBIT in Canada, up 50per cent and up 45 per cent vs. 2019, despite WTI hovering in the low-60s. So, we don’t buy the inherent volatility of the commodity argument anymore.

On Feb. 10, the Vancouver-based company, which is the world’s largest dealer of Caterpillar Inc. equipment, reported fourth-quarter revenues, adjusted earnings before interest and taxes and adjusted earnings per share of $2.69-billion, $209-million, respectively. Those results were largely in line with the Street’s expectations of $2.62-billion, $221-million and $1.06.

“From a cyclical standpoint, Canada Construction is improving from trough levels while Power Systems have momentum,” said Mr. Goldman. “Equipment seeded in 2023-2024, strong order intake, and a record backlog, provide good visibility on a long product support tail with the company continuing to hire technicians. On the earnings call, management noted that commentary around South America moderation was more about lapping outsized deliveries in the past two years. Chile copper production is still growing, and the company has 16 trucks in the backlog with ‘multiples of that backlog in the pipeline’, including in Argentina. Robust, predictable revenue growth supports significant earnings torque given ongoing actions to lower the cost base (15-per-cent SG&A rate in 2025, 14.6 per cent excluding LTIP [long-term incentive plan], was an all-time low); while improved capital turnover is accelerating FCF generation and buybacks. Net debt to EBITDA was 1.2 times exiting 2025, its lowest level as far back as our model goes to 1999.”

In response to the results, Mr. Goldman made minor adjustments to his forecast, focusing on an increase to his LTIP projection, which calls “a good problem to have.” Also introducing his 2027 estimates and raising his valuation multiple, he raised his target for Finning shares to $105 from $92, keeping a “sector outperform” rating. The average target is $96.80.

Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne increased her target to $104 from $100 with a “buy” rating.

Following “not great” fourth-quarter 2025 results from Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T), National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev thinks the market is “likely over-reacting,” seeing 2026 looking better.

On Friday, U.S.-listed shares of the Toronto-based diversified professional services and investment management company closed down 4.1 per cent after it reported quarterly gross revenue of US$1.607-billion, up 7 per cent year-over-year on gains across all its segments while 1 per cent below the Street’s expectation of US$1.623-billion. Adjusted earnings per share of US$2.34 also missed the consensus expectation by 8 US cents.

“The quarterly print was weaker than expected, weighed by flat organic engineering growth and a more material pullback in Investment Management margins while management consolidates operations under a unified HS [Harrison Street] platform,” Mr. Sytchev said.

“That said, we believe the 9-per-cent pullback [intraday on Friday] embeds some overly pessimistic assumptions on the part of investors, and there are several positive structural factors that keep us bullish on the CIGI thesis. Firstly, a 10-times forward EV/EBITDA multiple for highly visible mid-teens revenue/EBITDA/EPS growth is borderline punitive in a market still trading at near-record valuations. Secondly, there is an increasing amount of evidence to suggest that AI is more of a productivity-enabler and cost-mitigator vs. something that will gut consulting and transaction oriented work, especially in Engineering where legal and professional liability hurdles create a moat. Lastly, a more subdued U.S. CPI print should incrementally improve transaction velocity and support trading multiples through a lower implied discount rate.”

While Mr. Sytchev called the release an “admittedly a softer quarter,” he emphasized “the de-rate appears overdone in light of growth visibility,” seeing its US$700-million cash acquisition of Spain-based Ayesa Engineering S.A.U, announced on Feb.3, as “material and accretive” while also acknowledging 2026 is likely a “transition year” for its IM operations.

“With GAAP margins of close to 19 per cent (high proportion of specialized work like water desalination expertise) and a pro-forma acquisition multiple of 11.0 times EV/EBITDA on 2026E, Ayesa represents a major step in expanding and deepening Colliers’ engineering expertise (with virtually no overlap with the legacy platform),” he said. “While Q4/25 flat organic growth for the segment was likely lower than what many investors expected (although management did note that comps would be tough last quarter), management expects MSD [mid-single-digit] organic growth (and higher margins) for the full year after a 5-per-cent showing in 2025, suggesting that secular growth is intact despite geopolitical and AI-related headline noise. As with other engineering consultants in our coverage, AI is expected to be a productivity booster and a cost saver, allowing employees to shift efforts towards more value-added tasks as routine and administrative functions become increasingly automated. Pricing power does not appear to be under threat, helped by design (vs. hourly) work contributing 60 per cent of the segment’s top line (remainder is in project management).”

“The elevated costs of unifying and streamlining IM operations had been noted last quarter, but the magnitude appears to be larger than previously thought with segment margins expected to dip materially into the high-30’s in 2026E before rebounding back to the low-to-mid 40s in 2027E. Fundraising for the full year is expected at US$6-billion to US$9-billion, a substantial increase from last year’s US$5.3-billion level. Management notes that fund performance has been strong, and in December launched its flagship infrastructure fund.”

Maintaining an “outperform” rating for Colliers shares, Mr. Sytchev cut his target to US$160, falling below the US$175.54 average, from US$185.

“Management’s 2026 guidance calls for mid-teens growth in Revenue/EBITDA/EPS; accordingly, we align our estimates with those objectives and include the Ayesa acquisition in our forecasts,” he said. “The use of debt to fund Ayesa weighs on our EPS and balance sheet, and management commentary regarding a lower IM margin in 2026E moderates our margin expansion cadence for next year. Recall that in 2025A the company delivered 15-per-cent growth in Revenue/EBITDA/EPS off a guide for 2025 (introduced this time last year) that called for high single-digit to low-teens growth across all three metrics. The current guide is higher than last year’s, while Capital Markets and leasing have now recovered from the lag seen during the pandemic. As such, we remain slightly conservative in our top-line assumptions and are marginally below the guidance that calls for 25-per-cent Engineering net revenue growth (implying double-digit organic growth with the remainder from Ayesa), and low-teens organic growth in the other segments”

Elsewhere, other target revisions include:

* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien to US$185 from US$200 with a “strong buy” rating.

“We remain constructive on Colliers International despite the firm’s softer-than-expected 4Q25 results, which book ended another week of heightened market volatility. In our view, AI is unlikely to materially disrupt CIGI’s value-added businesses over the long term, making last week’s 19-per-cent share-price dislocation—versus a modest 1-per-cent decline in the S&P 500—an attractive opportunity to accumulate shares of this highly diversified growth platform,” said Mr. Bastien.

* RBC’s Jimmy Shan to US$180 from US$190 with an “outperform” rating.

“We think positives outweighed the negatives in the quarter. Friday’s price action seems disproportionate to the modest earnings miss, especially when 2026 guide calls for 15-per-cent earnings growth following 14 per cent in 2025. Acknowledging that AI fears could linger (proving or disproving extent of disruption with any conviction is difficult when the disruptor is not yet known), CIGI offers investors a good opportunity to step into a mid-teen earnings grower at a very reasonable price,” said Mr. Shan.

* Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta to US$155 from US$185 with a “sector outperform” rating.

“CIGI stock is down approximately 23 per cent in the last three days due to AI disruption fears,” said Mr. Gupta. “We reached out to a couple of commercial real estate brokers asking how they think AI (or AI app) can replace their services – ‘it is ridiculous’ is what we heard as they reminded that this is a relationship business where broker provides execution on complex real estate assignments. See AI as a ‘productivity and growth enabler’ rather than a replacement. … We are buyers of this weakness: CIGI now trades at 10 times 2026 EV/EBITDA which is 3 turns discount to CBRE vs small premium historically. Also, relative to our Shadow CIGI, it is trading at 3 turns discount and has underperformed our Shadow CIGI by meaningful 12 points.”

* Stifel’s Daryl Young to US$175 from US$195 with a “buy” rating.

“Q4/25 results were a touch light (first look) on temporary Engineering weakness (project management delays in EMEA/AsiaPac), and slightly softer margins across all segments. However, the outlook for 2026 is strong, with mid-teens EBITDA growth expected; CIGI sees healthy fundamentals across all three of its segments (particularly CRE transactions which are inflecting from cyclical lows). Regardless, the “AI fear trade” continues to dominate the narrative; admittedly there’s a plethora of scenarios to speculate on over the long-term, but we think the immediacy of potential impacts are being vastly overstated (discussed below). Moreover, data to date support AI boosting efficiency/margins, with limited to no evidence it can/will disintermediate the CRE/engineering business model (not to mention the regulatory/safety/liability considerations). We don’t want to be dogmatic, and will evaluate the AI data as it emerges, but based on what’s known today, we think CIGI presents a highly compelling investment at 15.0 times P/E,” said Mr. Young.

In other analyst actions:

* Seeing its potential near-term upside counterbalanced with by elevated capacity growth target concerns for 2027, Raymond James’ Savanthi Syth downgraded Air Canada (AC-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” without a specified target. Elsewhere, analysts making target revisions include: National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $25 from $24 with a “sector perform” rating, Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $27 from $26.50 with a “sector outperform” rating and Stifel’s Daryl Young to $28 from $24 with a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $24.95.

“Unless there is a significant strengthening in the economic outlook/Transborder recovery or capitulation by a weaker competitor, we believe this level of growth will start to weigh on investor sentiment,” said Ms. Syth.

* Pointing to a “stabilizing earnings outlook and more shareholder-friendly initiatives,” Scotia Capital’s Konark Gupta upgraded Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” and raised his target to $30 from $26. Analysts making target revisions include: National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $28 from $29 with an “outperform” rating and Stifel’s Daryl Young to $32 from $31 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $29.33.

“We are upgrading CHR to Sector Outperform (was Sector Perform) while raising our target to $30 (was $26) as our EBITDA and FCF outlook has improved,” said Mr. Gupta. “This is not a post-earnings upgrade(Q4 missed and 2026 guidance was only slightly better) but rather a reflection of our increased conviction in CHR’s ‘ability’ to keep earnings from declining going forward while at the same time generating solid cash flows to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividend growth. We had been on the sidelines for a while because we were lacking visibility on management’s strategy to mitigate the declining Air Canada CPA earnings (based on the long-term contract), although we were attracted to CHR’s recent efforts to de-lever the balance sheet and initiate shareholder returns. To be clear, we currently don’t forecast earnings growth over 2025 in the next four years, but “we do see a solid potential” for management to deploy capital wisely toward businesses that can grow (e.g., Voyageur) and to stabilize Air Canada CPA earnings through lease extensions at the very minimum – both potentially taking place within the next 1-2 years. In other words, there could be upside risk to our forecasts.”

* In response to recent share price appreciation, CIBC World Markets’ Robert Catellier downgraded TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with an $85 target, up from $81. Analysts making target changes include: National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $86, matching the average, from $85 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Robert Hope to $93 from $86 with a “sector outperform” rating, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $80 from $73 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $74 from $71 with a “market perform” rating and RBC’s Maurice Choy to $92 from $84 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $86.

“We characterize TRP’s Q4 results as operationally strong, exemplified by the EBITDA beat and delivery records seen across the company’s systems in both Canada and the U.S. While the $0.6-billion of sanctioned capital in the quarter is light, the company currently has $8-billion of projects classified as “pending approval”, and we believe further FIDs will serve as the next catalyst,” said Mr. Catellier.

* Seeing an “improved production growth outlook,” National Bank’s Shane Nagle increased his target for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T) to $330 from $320 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Tanya Jakusconek to US$280 from US$276 with a “sector outperform” rating and TD Cowen’s Steven Green to $251 from $241 with a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $314.84.

“We have incorporated Q4 results and aligned our near-term operating assumptions with three-year outlook, leading to a slight increase in target. Our Outperform rating remains based on AEM’s operating base in low-risk jurisdictions combined with its continued strong/consistent operational performance & organic growth outlook,” said Mr. Nagle.

* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier raised his CAE Inc. (CAE-T) target to $52 from $51 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $56 from $57 with a “sector outperform” rating and TD Cowen’s Tim James to $54 from $53 with a “buy” rating. The average is $47.88.

“While we expect noise in the short term (FY27 to be a transition year) as management is taking actions to reshape CAE’s long-term trajectory (8 per cent of revenue considered non-core, 10-per-cent reduction of deployed commercial capacity), we expect investors to look forward and focus on long-term upside, with full details of the transformation plan to be released in early May. We made several adjustments/assumptions to our forecasts. We are confident the shares could be worth $60+ in the next 3–4 years,” said Mr. Poirier.

* Mr. Poirier hiked his Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T) target to $83 from $66 with a “buy” rating. The average is $82.25.

“We are increasing our multiples to better align them with defence sector peers. Canada’s rising defence budget and the government’s emphasis on local procurement (where CGY is one of the few fully sovereign defence companies) enhance our conviction and visibility into the company’s upcoming growth. In addition, with the stock now trading at a premium to its five-year average, potential acquisitions should become even more accretive, while also creating opportunities to expand the company’s overall defence exposure,” said Mr. Poirier.

* RBC’s Jimmy Shan reduced his CAP REIT (CAR.UN-T) target to $48, remaining above the $47 average, from $50 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $43 from $45 with a “sector perform” rating and TD’s Jonathan Kelcher to $46 from $47 with a “buy” rating.

“We expect muted FFO [funds from operations] growth in 2026,” said Mr. Shan. “Turnover rent spread could turn negative next quarter given 27 per cent of portfolio are at above market rent and are more likely to turn near term. However, occupancy in its oversupplied markets are holding reasonably healthy and 2.5-per-cent renewal rent growth should play bigger role in revenue growth. CAP trades at a large discount to NAV (negative 26 per cent) reflecting low market expectation. Therefore, we see limited downside while any broader market risk-off sentiment could see a positive re-rate on the stock even in the absence of an inflection point in fundamentals,” said Mr. Shan.

* National Bank’s Dan Payne hiked his target for Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) to $29 from $24, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is $26.81.

“EFX stock is up 2-3 times since troughing in April 2025, driving meaningful multiple expansion to a valuation of around 4.5-5.0 times EV/EBITDA, but still at a material discount to industry peers (trading around 6-8 times),” said Mr. Payne. “The beginnings of a considerable turnaround, and the questions remain: a) what do investors hold today (established value), and b) what could the upside from here be (opportunistic value)? In our view, we are seeing the initial phases of a transition from what has been a highly ‘narrative-based’ name to greater opportunistic value in a more ‘fundamentally driven’ stock. … We distill a roadmap for value expectations of the company going forward; spoiler alert, we see a well-established net value of US$22 per share in its base business (20-per-cent upside to current trading), with potential long-term growth complements on the order of US$6-7.50 per share (further 30-per-cent upside), for a total sum of the parts’ opportunity of US$28-29.50 per share (50-per-cent upside to current trading).”

* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny increased his Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) target to $74 from $72 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $75.56.

“Combined with regulatory tailwinds on deck coupled with continued power demand growth in Arizona and several opportunities to expand growth across the portfolio through 2030 and beyond, we maintain our Sector Perform rating despite the name trading at approximately 1.7 times 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA, representing a 0.8-times premium to its 10-year average historical multiple,” said Mr. Kenny.

* Citi’s Bryan Burgmeier lowered his GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N, GFL-T) target to US$55 from US$56 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$56.80.

“Shares are down 1.7 per cent since strong 4Q results and ’26 guidance. While guidance is below consensus, GFL assumes 1.36 CAD/USD (implying a $140-million revenue and $45-million EBITDA headwind) vs. est. potentially assuming roughly neutral FX, consistent with rates from early January,” said Mr. Burgmeier. “Industry-leading margin expansion is intact as GFL expects 100 basis points benefit from net price and internal investments partially offset by commodities (negative 25 basis points), FX, carbon credits and 1Q hurricane volume comps (negative 5 basis points each). We model ’26 EBITDA $158-million to $2.143-billion, with tailwinds from M&A ($40-million), EPR ($25-million) and RNG ($5-million) partially offset by commodities ($22-million) and FX ($45-million). Our estimates are mostly unchanged on constant-currency; target price ticks down to $55; reiterate Buy. Adjusting for SBC, management comp and minority investments, we estimate GFL is trading on 13 times ’27 estimated EBITDA, comparable to the 5-year average, despite reduced leverage, pure-play Solid Waste portfolio and accelerating internal investments to narrow the margin gap.”

* In a client note titled Celebrating today while being mindful of tomorrow, RBC’s Maurice Choy bumped his target for shares of Hydro One Ltd. (H-T) to $58 from $57, keeping a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Theo Genzebu to $57 from $53.50 with a “market perform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler to $61 from $60 with a “buy” rating, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $55 from $53 with a “sector perform” rating. The average on the Street is $53.67.

“We celebrate Hydro One’s success in being awarded multiple electricity transmission line projects (14 projects sit in the backlog), and we are encouraged that early JRAP stakeholder engagements suggest that grid investments are being prioritized, with the sentiment being similar to the 2023 JRAP. While it may be positioned to repeat its 2023 rate case success in the 2028 JRAP process, from a stock perspective, we remain mindful of any material and longer-lasting changes to the market’s perception of Ontario’s economic outlook (which can alter these stakeholder preferences), particularly given the USMCA negotiations,” said Mr. Choy.

* RBC’s Bart Dziarski raised his IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T) target to $67, above the $66 average, from $65 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD’s Graham Ryding increased his target to $76 from $73 with a “buy” recommendation.

“Q4/25 normalized EPS was above our forecast and consensus driven by higher contributions from Northleaf and Rockefeller, partially offset by China AMC . IG WM momentum continues to build while Mackenzie positive net sales trends are primarily driven by ETFs and retail mutual funds remain in outflows. IGM announced its first dividend increase in 10 years, increasing its dividend 10 per cent and we expect the company to remain active on its NCIB in 2026. Increasing our price target to $67 (was $65) driven by rolling forward our valuation and net positive adjustments to our NAV-based valuation framework,” he said.

* Mr. Dziarski increased his Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) target to $59 from $57 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $53.67.

“Q4/25 marks a positive inflection point as TSU delivered another quarter of solid operating results and, more importantly, clean results in Exited Lines. With four consecutive quarters of clean results, a full actuarial review completed, and favourable reserve triangle trends, we believe investors can now shift focus to growth, which remains strong. TSU trades at a slight discount to specialty peers and we believe a premium is warranted. … TSU remains on our Small Cap Conviction List,” he said.

* TD’s Sean Steuart raised Interfor Corp. (IFP-T) target to $13 from $11 with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Ben Isaacson to $15 from $14 with a “sector outperform” rating and RBC’s Matthew McKellar to $14 from $13 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $12.25.

“While demand remains lackluster, and prices in some regions are still at levels we would think are challenging, the lumber industry seems to be moving toward a place of better balance to start 2026 after a very soft finish to 2025 that in part could have been driven by inventory destocking. Interfor’s financial flexibility has improved, and we continue to view the stock as inexpensive,” said Mr. McKellar.

* RBC’s Pammi Bir raised his target for Primaris REIT (PMZ.UN-T) to $20, above the $19 average, from $18 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $18.75 from $17.50 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $20 from $19.50 with a “strong buy” rating and National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $19.25 from $18.75 with an “outperform” rating.

“Post underlying results that were a touch ahead of us, we remain constructive on PMZ. 2026 organic growth should moderate to more pedestrian levels on HBC’s impact. More importantly, however, the year marks the start of a multi-year repositioning exercise to create value and more durable cash flows from some of its highest quality, yet least productive space. Encouraging progress is already being made. Combined with a solid balance sheet and expanding track record of good execution, we like the mix of growth and value here,” said Mr. Bir.

* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman raised his Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) target to $208 from $181 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne hiked her target to $228 from $195 with a “buy” rating. The average is $199.60.

“Hyperscaler capex is real, but at a certain point it needs to translate to end-user demand,” said Mr. Goldman. “If returns come in lower than we expected, we could see a digestion period where hyperscalers cut back on capex, which would disproportionately hurt AI infra companies that are currently gorging on elevated spending (data centers, chips, memory, hardware, fiber optic cables, gas turbines, battery enclosures, etc.). Weaker than expected end-user demand could end up making this period look like channel-stuffing by AI infrastructure companies in retrospect. Moreover, capitalism has a perfect record in stamping out excess returns. Supply shortages attract new capital to the space with new players adding capacity and grabbing available profits. On its 2Q25 earnings call, Toromont management briefly mentioned this sort of normalization. The point is, we just don’t know how things will play out and are happy to watch from the sidelines rather than underwrite a wide range of outcomes at 29 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E.”

* RBC’s Sabahat Khan reduced his target for Waste Connections Inc. (WCN-N, WCN-T) to US$210 from US$219 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$200.95.

“CN reported Q4 results ahead of Street forecasts while ’26 guidance was below consensus at the midpoint,” said Mr. Khan. “The focus item was the ’26 FCF conversion outlook, which is at 50 per cent of Adj. EBITDA when adjusting for $100-million of capex related to RNG/recycling and $100-150-million of Chiquita- related spend (43-per-cent conversion including these items). In terms of the underlying business, trends remain similar to what we have seen in recent quarters, with strength across the base business being partially offset by commodity-related headwinds.”

* National Bank’s Adam Shine trimmed his WildBrain Ltd. (WILD-T) target to $1.75 from $2 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $2.01.

* Mr. Shine, currently the lone analyst covering Yellow Pages Ltd. (Y-T), increased his target for to $12 from $11 with a “sector perform” rating.

Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly said that National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine raised his EQB Inc. target to $11 from $98. He raised it to $111.