Louisville Cardinals (19-6, 8-4) at SMU Mustangs (17-8, 6-6)
Location: Moody Coliseum: Dallas, TX
Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play) and Debbie Antonelli (analysis)
Favorite: Louisville by 3.5
Series: Louisville leads, 10-2
Last Meeting: Louisville won 88-74 on Jan. 31 in Louisville
Projected Starting Lineups:
- G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
- G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
- G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
- F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
- C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
- G Boopie Miller (6-0, 175, Sr.)
- G B.J. Edwards (6-3, 200, Sr.)
- G Jaron Pierre Jr. (6-5, 210, Sr.)
- F Corey Washington (6-6, 190, Sr.)
- C Samet Yigitoglu (7-2, 270, So.)
It’s been just two and-a-half weeks since Louisville ended the month of January with an 88-74 home triumph over SMU in a game the Cardinals trailed by three at the half. The Mustangs have gone 2-2 since then, knocking off Pitt and Notre Dame but losing a pair of 1-point games to NC State and Syracuse.
SMU currently sits inside the field of 68 in almost all NCAA Tournament projections, but the Mustangs are far from a lock to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Louisville is by far the best team remaining on their schedule, which means the Cards should expect Andy Enfield’s team to play with a tremendous sense of urgency Tuesday night in Dallas.
Offense remains the primary story for SMU. The Mustangs The Mustangs are near the top of the ACC in scoring offense (86.2, 2nd ACC, 19th NCAA), assists (17.6, 2nd ACC, 24th NCAA), fastbreak points (12.5, 1st ACC, 87th NCAA), field-goal percentage (49.5%, 3rd ACC, 23rd NCAA), 3-point percentage (37.8%, 2nd ACC, 25th NCAA) and free-throw percentage (76.2%, 5th ACC, 49th NCAA).
Leading the charge is still senior guard Boopie Miller (18.9 ppg/6.8 apg). Miller was All-ACC Third Team last season after averaging 13.2 points (26th ACC), 5.5 assists (4th ACC, 33rd NCAA), 2.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals (9th ACC) with a 2.50 assist-to-turnover ratio (2nd ACC, 41st NCAA), and has improved in nearly every statistical; category this season.
Standing just 6’0 tall, Miller is a dynamo with the ball in his hands. He’s a threat to score from anywhere on the floor and is also one of the best distributors in the ACC. He ranks in the ACC’s top 20 in steals per game (1.8) but is prone to getting caught gambling (see Chucky’s performance against him last season or Mikel’s second half performance last month). Miller is a more than capable outside shooter (41.4 percent), but the strength of his game is getting downhill and either scoring inside the arc or getting to the free-throw line, where he shoots nearly 90 percent.
Miller needed some backcourt help last season, so after the year was over, Enfield went out and got Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre, one of the most coveted guard in the portal. Pierre was the nation’s fourth-leading scorer a year ago and has had zero trouble adjusting to the ACC level. He’s scored 20 points or more in three of SMU’s last four games and enters Tuesday night averaging 17.4 ppg for the season.
Pierre is the perfect combo guard to play alongside Miller. He’s a good three-point shooter (36.8 percent), but his real strength is using his athleticism to whip his man off the dribble and finish strong at the rim. Pierre hasn’t been asked to be the playmaker for others that he was at JSU, but he’s a capable enough passer to be respected. He’s also a terrific rebounder for his size. Like Miller, he’s a much better offensive player than defensive. He can (and I assume will) be attacked when Louisville has the ball, just as he was in round one.
Senior guard B.J. Edwards (13.2 ppg/5.0 apg) is still playing easily the best basketball of his college career in his third and final season in Dallas. A career “just ok” outside shooter, Edwards has shot 36.3 percent from deep this season and has made at least one three in eight consecutive games. While his offensive numbers are all up, the strength of his game has always been his defense. A candidate for ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Edwards currently leads the league in steals at 2.4 per game. He had three in the first matchup against U of L.
Samet Yigitoglu, a 7’2 center from Turkey, has upped his production significantly in his sophomore season. He’s nearly averaging a double-double at 10.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, and is an effective rim protector averaging 1.4 blocks per game. Yigitoglu isn’t overly skilled or mobile, but he kind of had his way inside in the first matchup against Louisville, going 7-of-8 from the field.
While SMU shoots the ball very well from three (37.8 percent, 24th-best in the country), they’re usually very selective with their outside shooting. Where they really thrive is scoring in transition and attacking the basket in the halfcourt. Knowing this, Louisville played off the Mustang shooters in an attempt to cut-off driving lanes in the first meeting, and SMU promptly went nuts from the outside. The Cards adjusted to take away the three in the second 20 minutes, and held them to just 27 points. It’ll be interesting to see which defensive approach Pat Kelsey starts Tuesday night’s game with.
To sum up, SMU is an extremely talented offensive team with extremely talented guards that has struggled to defend against quality opponents this season, especially on the perimeter. They’re also a team coming off a devastating last-second loss in a game they had won, and will be desperate to add a much-needed signature win to their NCAA Tournament resume. Expect a battle in Moody.
—Louisville is 4-1 all-time in games against SMU in Dallas.
—SMU is 13-2 in games played at Moody Coliseum this season.
—Louisville is one of three DI teams with at least six victories of 40 points or more this season, joining Michigan (7) and High Point (6). The six 40+ point wins are the most UofL has ever had in a single season.
—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark six times in a season for the first time ever.
—SMU has scored at least 100 points nine times under Head Coach Andy Enfield, including four this season (plus 96 2x, 97 2x, a 98 and a 99). The five 100-point games in 2024-25 were the most since the 1992-93 season (6 times).
—Louisville is one of four programs that has logged at least three games of 18+ made 3’s, joining Cornell (4), Charleston Southern (3) and VMI (3).
—Both Pat Kelsey and Andy Enfield recorded their 100th wins this season. Kelsey hit the mark in Louisville’s 77-62 win over Boston College on Jan. 10. Enfield achieved the feat after beating Florida State last Saturday the 24th.
—Six SMU players have recorded at least one double-double this season: Samet Yigitoglu (6, 6th ACC, 78th NCAA), Boopie Miller (5, 9th ACC), Corey Washington (3, 18th ACC), B.J. Edwards (2 – both triple-doubles), Jaron Pierre Jr. (1) and Jaden Toombs (1). Edwards is the one of two players in the nation with multiple triple doubles (Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State).
—SMU has lost 15 of its last 16 games against AP ranked opponents, including its loss to Louisville on Jan. 31.
—SMU is 1-4 against AP top 25 opponents so far this season.
—Louisville is 46-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-13 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.
—Louisville is currently 10th in the country in scoring margin at +16.0 points per game.
—Louisville has won five consecutive games for the first time since beginning the season 7-0.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 2-0 in games against SMU.
—SMU head coach Andy Enfield is 0-2 in games against Louisville.
—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 122-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 84, SMU 82
