Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Merrimack Warriors and the Sienna Saints.
Hynes Athletics Center is getting a MAAC game that feels big on this Friday. Saint Peter’s walks in at 15-9 and 12-4 in league play, sitting near the top of the race. Iona is 15-12 and 7-9, and the margin for error is basically gone. The first meeting already set the tone when the Peacocks beat the Gaels 77-63 in late January, so this is a solve-it rematch. Saint Peter’s just handled Fairfield 83-74, while Iona is coming off a 70-68 loss to Niagara, which sharpens the urgency on the home side. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Merrimack Warriors and the Sienna Saints.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Warriors are at a 1.076 offensive efficiency with a 14.0% turnover rate, and their free-point lane is louder than it looks with a 39.2% free-throw-attempt rate. Siena’s offense is solid at 1.036, but the margin gets brittle when the jumpers have to be perfect, and Merrimack’s defense has made that a season-long theme: opponents are shooting .290 from 3 and .415 overall against this group. If this stays in the low 60s late, the team that can manufacture points at the stripe and win the giveaway battle usually owns the last 4 minutes.
The people who decide it fit the same picture. Kevair Kennedy is Merrimack’s engine at 17.7 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.0 steals, and that is exactly the stat-line of a guard who turns empty possessions into runway. Ernest Shelton is the second scorer at 15.9, and he already proved the role in the first meeting by leading the way with 17 when Merrimack broke the game open. Tye Dorset adds 11.4 points with 2.2 assists, which matters because ball movement is how zone games stop being coin flips. On the other side, Gavin Doty puts Siena on his back at 17.1 points and 7.3 boards, Justice Shoats adds 13.5 with 4.5 assists, and Francis Folefac is the matchup bender inside after dropping 22 and 10 in the first meeting.
Sienna vs. Merrimack pick, best bet
Siena’s injury list has been messy, and missing ball-handling can make a zone game feel like a trap. Nick Ducharme is out with a shoulder injury, Tasman Goodrick is out for the season, and Joey Schlager is out with a rib issue, which compresses creation and can turn late-clock possessions into forced floaters. That also cuts both ways, though, because Merrimack’s last five have all lived in the grinder range, and it keeps winning those scripts anyway, including 56-49 over Quinnipiac and 69-67 over Marist. Merrimack feels closer to a one-possession-plus favorite than a coin flip.
The best bet is Merrimack -2.5, playable to -3.5. The number is short for a team that has lived at the window all season, and the market record backs it up with Merrimack sitting near the top of the league ATS while Siena has been more middle-band in that same category.
Prediction: Merrimack 67, Siena 62.
Best bet: Merrimack -2.5 (-110) vs. Sienna
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