The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts Utah State on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Utah State (23-3, 13-2 MW) at Nevada (17-9, 9-6)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: FS1/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: No line posted yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Handle the pressure: Utah State’s offense gets a lot of love, and rightfully so, but the Aggies’ defense has been elite, thanks in large part to the pressure it applies on opponents. Utah State ranks 18th in the nation in defensive turnover rate, forcing takeaways on 20.2 percent of its opponents’ plays. Among Mountain West schools, only San Diego State (21.1 percent) is better. The Wolf Pack had issues with Utah State’s pressure defense in their first matchup, coughing it up 14 times. Moreso, Nevada shot just 34.4 percent from the field after taking some low-percentage shots due to the Aggies’ pressure. Coming off a 15-turnover game Tuesday at San Jose State, the Wolf Pack must deal with Utah State’s pressure defense that has helped the Aggies rank 34th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
2. No big game for MJ: Vanderbilt import MJ Collins has been one of the MW’s top transfers, averaging 18.3 points per game on 51.8/38.5/80.5 percent shooting. Collins’ production has dipped a little in MW play, but he’s still been good. When Collins plays well, Utah State is nearly unbeatable. When he has an average game, the Aggies are vulnerable. He’s a big X-factor. In the first matchup between these teams, Nevada did a good job in limiting Collins to 14 points on 3-of-9 shooting. The Wolf Pack would take those numbers again. Mason Falslev has been Utah State’s best player this season, but Collins can take the Aggies to another level, one the Wolf Pack must keep him from reaching Saturday. In Utah State wins, Collins is shooting 52.9 percent. In Aggies losses, that figure has fallen to 35.9 percent.
3. Nothing easy down low: We’ve often discussed Nevada’s issues finishing around the basket this season, with the Wolf Pack ranking 351st in the nation in two-point shooting at 46.6 percent. Utah State is the exact opposite, ranking seventh in the country in two-point shooting at 61.5 percent. The Aggies have been elite at close twos (66.4 percent) and the mid-range (43.9 percent). Nevada can’t allow easy stuff in the post. Wolf Pack center Joel Armotrading missed Nevada’s first matchup against Utah State due to injury but has since returned to action. While he’s not 100 percent, his size could play big against the Aggies, who have crushed foes down low. Nevada did a good job in this category in Logan, holding Utah State to 15-of-28 on twos. But the Aggies, especially Collins and Falslev, are relentless with rim attacks.
Prediction
Utah State 75, Nevada 69: It will be fascinating to see how Nevada responds from its disastrous loss at San Jose State. Will the Wolf Pack come out with an anger and an edge or let the season slip away? Utah State is playing its best ball of the season and has won by 25 points at Boise State and 20 at New Mexico, so the Aggies have traveled well in tough road environments. Nevada seems like a proud group that will hit the court with something to prove. But Utah State is a bona fide NCAA Tournament team needing a win to stay in the driver’s seat for a MW regular-season title. Season record: 18-8
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
