Premier League predictions and best bets: Title race tremor! Tottenham to rock Arsenal in north London derby
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the weekend card of Premier League fixtures.
Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Lots on the line with a backdrop of pure tension in the air. Tottenham are too big at 5/1 for the victory but the best bet revolves around cards.
The last 13 meetings have produced 5.3 yellows per game and I’d expect that average to be hit but the market has that covered.
So, heading to the player cards is advisable.
Martin Zubimendi is where my money is going at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
Zubimendi is a cynical player that does tend to get himself caught short in transition or talk his way into trouble in big atmospheres. He’s been carded away at Liverpool, Sunderland and Chelsea – and three times in the Champions League already this season.
His direct opponent here in Xavi Simons is another reason to get involved. He’s an outstanding drawer of fouls and cards. And makes challenges look worse than they are, which is a key trait to when looking for value in card match-ups.
If you run his cards drawn data in league matches across the last three seasons, he’s drawn 37 cards off opponents from just over 4,000 minutes of action. That’s a card drawn every 108 minutes – almost one a game. Elite level skullduggery.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Martin Zubimendi to be carded (11/4 with Sky Bet)
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Everton vs Manchester United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Harry Maguire to be fouled at 5/6 with Sky Bet looks a cracking angle to attack.
Since breaking back into the United starting XI, this is a bet that’s quietly been printing. He’s been fouled in each of his last five starts, winning seven fouls in total across those matches. He attacks first contact aggressively, steps into midfield with the ball and isn’t shy about putting his body between opponent and possession. When you play that way, contact follows.
His likely direct opponent, Thierno Barry, averages 1.75 fouls per 90 minutes. That’s a forward who engages, presses hard and doesn’t mind leaving a foot in when chasing back.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
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Jones Knows’ best bets:
1pt treble on: Joao Pedro to score, Bournemouth draw no bet & Martin Zubimendi to be carded (14/1 with Sky Bet)
1pt on: Jorgen Strand Larsen to score & to be carded (25/1 with Sky Bet)
1pt on: Igor Thiago to score, commit +2 fouls & be carded (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75
Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75
Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75
Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75
Matchday 14
-1
-2
-19.75
Matchday 15
0
-1
-20.75
Matchday 16
0
-1
-21.75
Matchday 17
0
-1
-22.75
Matchday 18
0
-1
-23.75
Matchday 19
0
-1
-24.75
Matchday 20
-1
0
-25.75
Matchday 21
-4
0
-29.75
Matchday 22
0
-1
-30.75
Matchday 23
0
-1
-31.75
Matchday 24
-1
-1
-33.75
Matchday 25
-1
-1
-35.75
Matchday 26
-1
-1
-37.75
