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Contestants Jeremiah Ing, left, and Nicole Mazullo participate in a challenge during Season 49 of Survivor while host Jeff Probst looks on.Robert Voets/CBS/Paramount+/Supplied
Either I’m a Survivor savant or I’ve just had a weird string of luck: I’ve correctly picked the winner four times over the past six seasons, from the first episode alone.
Everyone in my Survivor pool has a different way of choosing their contender.
Lisa Lambert, who organizes my pool, manifests the winner in her mind.
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“Before I watch or read anything about any of the contestants, I just close my eyes and imagine the kind of person who is sitting at the end,” she says. “Then I look at which contestant matches that.”
How do I pick winners? Well, honestly, it’s not any more scientific. I do it by feel. But I have a few observations to share ahead of Survivor 50 that might help.
Women have the advantage now
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From left: Savannah Louie, Sophi Balerdi, and Kristina Mills compete on Survivor.Paramount+/Supplied
Over the first 40 seasons of Survivor, men won 25 times. But, in the so-called “new era,” where contestants have to outwit, outlast and outplay for 26 days in Fiji rather than 39, women have won six of the last nine seasons.
Because the game has accelerated, the social aspect is more important than ever – and that may be why women tend to excel at it.
Survivor 50, which will feature all returning contestants, was not only filmed over 26 days, but the number of participants has also gone up from 18 to 24. So, the social game is going to play a bigger role than ever before.
First to tribal, last to leave?
The new era requires players to split into three tribes right away, with each having to earn their flint (to make fire and cook).
If a tribe doesn’t win a challenge immediately, it’s a huge disadvantage; numbers get whittled down quickly after cold, hungry sleeps.
And yet, a member of the team first sent to tribal council each season has ended up becoming sole survivor five out of nine times in the new era.
Underdogs who survive seem to have an advantage once tribes merge. They have experience at tribal council and, having lost their primary alliance, can play flexibly.
Don’t value trends over your own eyes
This may contradict my other advice, but sometimes a trend is just a coincidence.
After Canadians became eligible to compete on Survivor, Erika Casupanan and Maryanne Oketch won season 41 and 42 in quick succession.
This led me to imagine some sort of secret advantage to being a Canuck on Survivor. Alas, Kane Fritzler from Saskatoon – my otherwise unlikely season 44 pick – fizzled out eighth.
In Survivor 50, Genevieve Mushaluk (from season 47) and Kamilla Karthigesu (from season 48) will become the first Canadians to compete for a second time. They’ll have a better shot – but that will be because of their gameplay, not where they’re from.
