Vance Leads GOP Field While Democrats Hold Midterm Edge
Cost of living tops voter concerns for the 2026 Midterm Elections
A new Emerson College Polling national survey of likely voters finds President Trump with a 43% job approval rating, consistent with January, and a 55% disapproval rating, a four-point increase since last month.
“Hispanics disapprove of the job the president is doing, 58% to 37%, a significant shift after reporting a near-split rating last month (43% approve to 45% disapprove) following the administration’s military action in Venezuela,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “These numbers reflect the broader downward trend previously observed among Hispanic voters.”
Looking ahead to 2028, California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic primary contest with 20%, followed by former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails with 9%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 7%, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at 5%. Twenty-four percent are undecided.
“Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases: AOC has a plurality support among voters under 30 (20%), Buttigieg leads among women with 20%, along with plurality support of postgraduates (21%), while Newsom leads among voters over 50 (23%). The Black vote backs Harris (36%),” Kimball noted.
Vice President JD Vance continues to lead the Republican Primary contest, with 52%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6%. Eleven percent are undecided.
Kimball noted, “Republican voters are strongly behind Vance, supporting the Vice President 59% to Rubio’s 19%. Independents who plan on voting in the 2028 Republican Primary also favor Vance, though by a narrower margin of 33% to 23%.”
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats have an eight-point advantage, 50% to 42%, a two-point increase in support since last month’s survey.
- Independents break for the Democratic candidate 50% to 37%
Looking ahead to the 2026 Midterm Elections, voters were asked how important a series of issues were to their vote choice, on a scale from 1-10, 1 being least important and 10 being most important.
Cost of living had the highest mean importance at 8.2, followed by healthcare costs at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, healthcare access at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.
- Democrats rate healthcare costs higher than average at 8.6, and border security lowest at 4.9.
- Republicans rate border security 8.3 and deportation policy 8.2, higher than Democrats (4.9 and 6.9) and independents (5.9 and 6.5).
- Independents are most concerned about the cost of living, with a mean rating of 8.2.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted February 21-22, 2026. The overall sample of US likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
The sample of Democratic Primary voters includes a sample size of n=438 with a credibility interval of +/-4.6 percent. The Republican primary consists of a sample size of n=454 with a credibility interval of +/-4.6 percent.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an online panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web, with additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
