Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Kennesaw State Owls and the Liberty Flames.
Liberty arrives in Kennesaw at 23-4 overall and 15-1 in Conference USA, sitting atop the league and still playing like the team everyone else is chasing. Kennesaw State is 16-11 and 8-8 in conference play, squarely in that dangerous middle tier where home games still carry real late-season weight as the calendar tightens. This is a matchup between the conference’s steadiest winner and one of its more volatile home-floor tests, with Liberty trying to keep control of the top of the standings and Kennesaw trying to prove it can disrupt the league order in its own building. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Kennesaw State Owls and the Liberty Flames.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Liberty’s season-long efficiency is still the backbone of the case, but the more important point is that the current version of this game still leans toward the Flames even after the recent wobble. Over the last five, Liberty is still 4-1 and scoring 78.4 points per game, which says the offense has largely held its level even through the turbulence. The bigger recent warning is on the other end, where those same five games have turned into too many close finishes and too much defensive leakage, including the 90-89 overtime escape against FIU and the 94-73 home loss to Western Kentucky. Even so, the offensive quality has not disappeared: Liberty just shot 55.6% from the field in that Western Kentucky loss and is still the much cleaner possession team on the full body of work at 8.9 turnovers per game and a 13.7% turnover rate. Kennesaw’s recent profile is shakier where it matters most for this matchup.
The Owls are only 2-3 in their last five and 5-5 in their last 10, and while the season-long scoring number is a flashy 84.3 per game, the current version has been much less stable. One game ago, in the 58-55 win over Louisiana Tech, Kennesaw shot just 35.1% from the floor, just 23.3% from three, and turned it over 13 times. That is the kind of recent half-court drag this handicap should be weighting higher, especially against a Liberty team that still owns the cleaner shooting profile, the better ball security, and the more trustworthy late-possession structure. Kennesaw’s pressure points still make the game live—the 35.7% offensive-rebound rate, the 44.0 free-throw rate, the home scoring environment—but the current-version offense is not playing like the same smooth unit the season-long average suggests.
That same recency lens sharpens the player read. Liberty’s closing group still looks more bankable because the guys driving the offense are not just good on the season; they fit the exact script this game is likely to become. Brett Decker Jr. is still the headline scorer at 16.6 points per game, but the more important part is that his efficiency has held as the games have tightened: 50.8% from the floor, 48.1% from three, and 83.6% at the line. Colin Porter just dropped 20 points in the Western Kentucky loss and still gives Liberty the cleanest late-game free-throw hand on the floor at 91.5%. Zach Cleveland remains the piece that makes the offense function when games get sticky, because the 11.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 7.0 assists are not empty volume; they are the reason Liberty can survive slower, more physical stretches without its offense disconnecting.
Kennesaw’s current version, by contrast, is leaning much harder on RJ Johnson and the frontcourt to manufacture enough offense possession by possession. Johnson was solid in the Louisiana Tech win with 15 points and five assists, but the larger team result still matters more than the line: Kennesaw needed all of that just to get to 58 points. Frankquon Sherman is still the clearest possession-swing piece with 8.1 rebounds and 3.1 offensive boards per game, and Braedan Lue still gives the Owls real rim resistance, but the current version of this team is asking physicality and second chances to cover for uneven shotmaking. That gives Kennesaw a real home-dog path, but the higher-weighted sample still says Liberty is bringing the better closers, the cleaner offense, and the more reliable current scoring structure into the game.
Liberty vs. Kennesaw State pick, best bet
The obvious pushback is that Kennesaw has the exact profile that makes short favorites sweat. The first meeting proved that. Liberty won 81-73, shot 50.0% from the floor and 42.3% from three, and still had to deal with a Kennesaw team that chopped a 17-point hole down to a one-point game in the second half. The recent results say the same thing. Liberty needed overtime to escape FIU 90-89 while getting out-rebounded 42-29, losing second-chance points 18-5, and coughing it up 15 times, then got blasted 94-73 by Western Kentucky even though it shot 55.6% from the floor. Kennesaw, on the other hand, just beat Louisiana Tech 58-55 while shooting only 35.1% overall and 23.3% from three, which tells you the Owls can win ugly, and two games before that they won 91-87 at Missouri State, which tells you they can also live in a looser scoring environment. That is the danger here: Kennesaw has more than one way to drag this into a final-minute knife fight. But that is also why I want the better offense, not the noisier one.
Kennesaw is 11-3 at home and has scored 88.9 points per game in this building, so the home-floor juice is real, but the recent shape is more volatile than that number suggests. The Owls are only 2-3 in their last five, and even in the 58-55 home win over Louisiana Tech they shot just 35.1% from the floor, just 23.3% from three, and turned it over 13 times. Two games earlier they won 91-87 at Missouri State, which is the other side of the Kennesaw profile: this team can win ugly or loose, but it keeps living in unstable game scripts. Liberty has been more reliable in the higher-weighted sample. The Flames are 4-1 in their last five and still scoring 78.4 points per game in that stretch, while going 9-1 on the road for the season and averaging 74.2 points away from home. The warning sign is that Liberty’s recent run has gotten sweatier, but the way Liberty plays still fits this spot better. The Flames can slow the game down (64.1 adjusted tempo), force longer defensive possessions, and keep the possession count cleaner, while Kennesaw is still the team more likely to give away some of its own work with fouls (20.1 per game), turnovers (12.0 per game), and uneven half-court shotmaking. Kennesaw’s glass pressure is still the live threat, but the recent offense has not been clean enough to fully trust that pressure carrying the whole night.
I’m still laying the 1.5 with Liberty, and the strongest support for that is the recent game shape, not just the full-season efficiency table. Liberty’s last five say the offense is still intact even through the wobble: 78.4 points per game across a stretch of 79, 77, 73, 90, and then 73 in the Western Kentucky loss, and that defeat is actually a useful reminder that the bigger issue lately has been game control, not offensive collapse. The Flames shot 55.6% in that loss and still got run over because Western Kentucky lived at the line (22-of-23 FT) and won the physical parts of the game. That is the exact failure mode Kennesaw would need to recreate. The reason the Liberty side still holds is that Kennesaw’s recent profile has not been clean enough to count on it doing that for 40 minutes. In the last five, the Owls are allowing 78.4 points per game, and their most recent win still required surviving a rock fight where they barely got to 58 points. The way this ticket dies is Kennesaw winning the rebound battle the same way FIU did against Liberty—42-29 on the glass with an 18-5 edge in second-chance points—and dragging the Flames into another final-minute scramble. But the current version of Liberty is still bringing the steadier offense, the better road composure, and the cleaner possession profile into a matchup where Kennesaw is still being asked to be more efficient than it has looked lately.
Liberty -1.5 is the play, and I’d say it’s still playable to -2. Projected score: Liberty 78, Kennesaw State 75.
Best bet: Liberty -1.5 (-115) at Kennesaw State
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