The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at UNLV on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (19-9, 11-6 MW) at UNLV (14-14, 9-8)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
Where: Thomas & Mack Center (19,522 capacity)
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: No line posted yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Don’t let Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn beat you: There has been no better player in the Mountain West over the last month than Gibbs-Lawhorn. Starting with his 26-point game at Nevada on Jan 1, the UNLV lead guard is averaging 28.1 points per game on 55.9/52.1/92.9 shooting, adding 2.6 assists and 1.5 steals per game. In those eight games, UNLV is averaging 83 points. The Rebels’ offense has not been a problem, thanks largely to Gibbs-Lawhorn, who has reached 25 points a MW-high 11 times this season, including a 36-point outburst in an overtime win at Boise State. Gibbs-Lawhorn doesn’t get to the free throw line a ton, but he has few offensive weaknesses, making him one of the MW’s toughest players to guard.
2. Huge advantage at the free throw line: UNLV loves fouling; Nevada likes to get fouled. The Rebels allow 26.3 free throws per game, the seventh most in the nation. The Wolf Pack shoots 25.5 free throws per game, the 17th most in the nation. That’s a good matchup for Nevada, which had a 31-11 edge in free throw attempts in its first game against UNLV (it was plus-14 in free throws makes in a 13-point win). The Rebels have yielded 25-plus free throws in 17 games, going 6-11 in those contests. Coach Josh Pastner ripped his defense after this week’s loss against Grand Canyon, calling it the worst he’s coached. That’s multi-faceted. But the biggest issues have been an inability to guard the 3-point line (MW opponents are shooting 40.1 percent from three) and inability to keep teams off the free throw line.
3. Travel well: Nevada has not been very good on the road, going 4-6 with four straight losses in visiting arenas. The Wolf Pack’s average game score (out of 100) in home games is 79.6. Away from home, that mark is 63.8. That’s a significant drop off. The Wolf Pack’s most recent road trip included a 14-point loss at San Diego State and 16-point loss at San Jose State, the latter being one of the team’s most embarrassing losses this century. Nevada rebounded with two huge home wins, over Utah State and New Mexico, but it now must carry that quality of play on the road. UNLV has not necessarily had a big home-court advantage, going 8-5 at Thomas & Mack and 6-5 in road games.
Prediction
Nevada 80, UNLV 74: It hasn’t really mattered who UNLV has played this season. It’s more about how UNLV plays. The Rebels are 3-3 in Quad 1 games, 3-5 in Quad 2 games, 2-3 in Quad 3 games and 5-3 in Quad 4 games. Usually you have a better record against bad competition than good competition, but UNLV has been super inconsistent, flashing a high ceiling and low floor. Pastner’s postgame comments Tuesday about UNLV’s leaky defense seemed legit. But I would not doubt if they were also meant to light a fire under his team before its big game against Nevada. But the Wolf Pack has been the more consistent team, so that’s our pick. Season record: 19-9
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
